Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards Predictions

Tonight is the SAG Awards.

In terms of the Oscars, the place the SAG Awards have the most weight (obviously) is with the acting categories.

Most of the time (I’ll go over the numbers when I get to the categories), whoever wins SAG is a good bet to go on and win the Oscar.

So really that’s what this article is gonna be about. The predictions are just here because I needed an article to go up today.

So here are my predictions for tonight’s SAG Awards:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Argo

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Les Misérables

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Most people equate this with Best Picture. Don’t. Here are your past winners:

2011: The Help

2010: The King’s Speech

2009: Inglourious Basterds

2008: Slumdog Millionaire

2007: No Country for Old Men

2006: Little Miss Sunshine

2005: Crash

2004: Sideways

2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2002: Chicago

2001: Gosford Park

2000: Traffic

1999: American Beauty

1998: Shakespeare in Love

1997: The Full Monty

1996: The Birdcage

1995: Apollo 13

Typically, while they do go for some Best Picture films, a lot of this is clearly, “Biggest assortment of great actors/ensemble performances/great performances.” These are either true ensemble films, or they had a bunch of people nominated for them.

Which is why your winner here is almost definitely gonna be either Argo, Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook.

If I had to rank them, I’d say Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln then Argo.

Silver Linings had actors nominated in all four acting categories. Who do you think nominated those people?

Lincoln has a cast that’s SAG’s wet dream. Those two should be neck and neck right now.

If Argo does win (since it is also an ensemble), then you might be able to close that Best Picture race right now.

Les Mis does have a shot, but something tells me SAG isn’t gonna go that way.

And Marigold Hotel is lucky to be nominated.

Right now, I’m going with Silver Linings as my guess, and Lincoln as my, “Well that was the other choice.” If Argo wins, it means something, if the other two win, it’s meaningless.

I’m kind of rooting for Les Mis as a symbol of, “Well, they sang live, that’s nice.” I know they won’t do it, but it would be nice to see.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

Denzel Washington, Flight

Now we get into the big deals.

Here are your previous winners:

2011: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

2010: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

2009: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

2008: Sean Penn, Milk

2007: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

2006: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman, capote

2004: Jamie Foxx, Ray

2003: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

2002: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York

2001: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind

2000: Benicio del Toro, Traffic

1999: Kevin Spacey, American Beauty

1998: Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful

1997: Jack Nicholson, As Good as It Gets

1996: Geoffrey Rush, Shine

1995: Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas

1994: Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump

So, for those who know the Oscars, only four times has the SAG winner not also won Best Actor.

One of them won Supporting Actor instead, so that’s kind of a wash.

The other three — one of them is Daniel Day-Lewis. (Plus Adrien Brody shocked everyone.)

The other two — Denzel beats Russell Crowe, amidst allegations of racism, Russell Crowe’s not-so-nice behavior at the time and the fact that he won the year before.

The other one — Johnny Depp. I can’t explain it, but I love it.

That said, it’s almost always right, never go against SAG.

If Daniel Day-Lewis wins this (and I fully expect him to), then he’s more than a mortal lock to win Best Actor.

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One thing to keep in mind before we continue — SAG has a crazy amount of people in it. The Oscars have an acting body of about 3,000? Something like that. Between 2,000 and 3,000, I didn’t check the numbers this year. It’s more concentrated with veterans and Brits. So when you see younger people nominated at SAG (not necessarily win, but nominated), that’s usually the younger contingent of SAG doing the voting. So do keep in mind that the Oscars skew older and have a stronger BAFTA contingency than SAG does. (That’s how Gary Oldman got on last year and how some of the Supporting races turned out the way they did, which I’ll get to in a bit.)

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Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Here are your previous winners:

2011: Viola Davis, The Help

2010: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2009: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

2008: Meryl Streep, Doubt

2007: Julie Christie, Away from Her

2006: Helen Mirren, The Queen

2005: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

2004: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

2003: Charlize Theron, Monster

2002: Renée Zellweger, Chicago

2001: Halle Berry, Monsters Ball

2000: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich

1999: Annette Bening, American Beauty

1998: Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love

1997: Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets

1996: Frances McDormand, Fargo

1995: Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking

1994: Jodie Foster, Nell

So not quite the beacon of certitude as Best Actor, but we’re still gonna listen to it anyway, so it doesn’t matter.

The ones they had wrong were –

Last year, Meryl beat Viola. That… maybe I won’t speculate as to all the reasons I think factored into that one. (For now, let’s just call it, Harvey. Though I’m sure race factored into that one.)

2008 — Kate beats Meryl. Mostly because Kate won Supporting for SAG, so that was kind of a wash, since there was that whole weird category fraud thing going on there. (Also, Harvey again.)

2007 — Marion beats Julie in a really tight race. Can’t fault them for that one.

2002 — Nicole beats Renée. Technically not Harvey, since they were both his horses. But it seems pretty clear that they campaigned like a motherfucker for Nicole, since she was definitely a supporting role in that movie.

1999 — Still not sure how Hilary beats Annette there. Annette should have won that all the way. I wasn’t following the Oscars back then (being 11), so I don’t know what the deal was (nor do I really care).

1994 — Jodie gave the best performance, but Jessica was overdue and Jodie had won twice in the past seven years. So I get it.

So they’ve been off six times here in Best Actress. Actually not as bad as I was thinking, since one of them is a category deal, so it’s five times and an asterisk. Still two more than Best Actor.

It’s harder to call a Best Actress win from SAG. But if Jessica Chastain wins, then people will be calling one, out of a foolish notion that the Golden Globes truly matter (also — Jennifer Lawrence won that too). I — I actually kind of see Chastain taking this. It’s between the two.

I think Chastain wins this, and I still kind of like Jennifer Lawrence for the Oscar. Chastain seems to be more in favor with the veterans. She just feels like someone the veteran actors are gonna love, whereas Lawrence seems more someone the younger crowd is gonna like.

I don’t know, I keep thinking (subjectivity aside) that Chastain has the fast track to the win more than Lawrence does. So I’m thinking she wins here.

Lawrence is the second choice (the win for her would be huge. If she wins this, I don’t know if Chastain can win the Oscar, given all the criticism of the film and all that), and there is no third choice. (P.S. Shocked, if Naomi Watts wins.)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin, Argo

Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

This is your Oscar category with Waltz instead of Bardem, which, I figured a Django nominee was gonna get in.

This one is really tough to call. Hoffman seems to be the favorite based on the (mostly meaningless) Globe win, but this category changes drastically with a win by any of these people (not Bardem, obviously).

I say Hoffman and Jones are your favorites. De Niro would shock me, but maybe they just want to give it to him.

I’ve felt like Hoffman was your clubhouse leader all along. His character/performance just felt like one they’d vote for.

I’d like to vote for Jones, but I’ll stick with Hoffman. Why not?

I’ll deal with how close they are tomorrow. This is one we’d rather find out about after we know who won.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

And the final category that matters — Anne Hathaway. The end. I won’t even go into how close they are until tomorrow, with the recap. It’s meaningless. We know who’s winning. Everyone else is a shocker, and it’s better to deal with how close they are afterward.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

Kevin Costner, Hatfield and McCoys

Woody Harrelson, Game Change

Ed Harris, Game Change

Clive Owen, Hemingway and Gellhorn

Bill Paxton, Hatfields and McCoys

These categories I don’t care about, but we’ll guess anyway.

I’d say Costner (if he’s still alive after that morose speech he gave at the Globes. I hope he didn’t off himself), but SAG does weird things. I’d say him or Ed Harris.

Costner seems most likely. I’ll vote for him.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn

Julianne Moore, Game Change

Charlotte Rampling, Restless

Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals

Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias

Julianne Moore. My vote, probable winner. The end.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Damien Lewis, Homeland

You’d think Damien Lewis, but I’m rooting for Jeff Daniels all the way. Go Jeff!

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story Asylum

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Oooh, this is exciting. Lange, Maggie or Claire. Let’s vote Maggie. We all love Maggie.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Sofia Vegara, Modern Family

Betty White, Hot in Cleveland

Isn’t this the annual Betty White award?

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire

Breaking Bad

Downton Abbey

Homeland

Mad Men

No Newsroom?

Boo. I refuse to vote.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

30 Rock

The Big Bang Theory

Glee

Modern Family

Nurse Jackie

The Office

Modern Family. It’s winning.

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We’ll deal with the winners tomorrow and I’ll write more in depth. This was just to get something up today. I’ll be honest. I didn’t try at all here.

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