Guide to Oscar Night: Picks, Analysis, etc. (Mostly the etc.)
Folks, this is where the money should go.
Rather than checking all those sites of people who do nothing but follow Oscar precursors and stuff, you can read me, who reads some of them, and then does what he wants anyway. And has personality. I have so much charm, you know you’d rather read me. It comes naturally. My grandfather was a snake.
I’m awesome, is what I’m saying.
How this works is: Because I know you’re dying to hear what I think, I’m going to rank every category based on personal preference. Then, in each category, I will list, 1) Who is most likely to win, 2) Who I’d vote for — which is essentially the more politicized version of my rankings. Example: My #1 movie on the Best Picture list isn’t one of the two favorites for Best Picture. Therefore, my vote goes toward the one I’d like to see win more. Green?, 3) Who the biggest competition is for the person most likely to win. Often times I will explain how tight the race is so you can get an idea of just how likely the likely person is likely to win, 4) Who the spoiler is — there’s always a chance some dark horse comes in and upsets the category. Usually these dark horse candidates are pretty obvious. Very rarely does an out and out shock happen — especially in the larger categories. So, in this case, when I give you the top three people in order of likelihood to win, know that anyone else who wins that category is probably going to be a huge shock to everybody, and 5) Who the best bet is to put your money on. For those of you running pools or whatever. I’ve gotten out of the game myself, mostly because now I have this, and my picks are now being publicized. Kind of hard to compete with others when your game plan can be seen beforehand (ain’t that right, Bill Belichick?). This is purely to be used to help others. So now you can win all your Oscar pools and I can feel good knowing that I still got it.
I’m also going to color coordinate all the films so that way you can have an easier time looking for them. See all the things I do for you? I’m just like Bryan Adams. Only not Canadian. Which… come on.
10. The Kids are All Right
9. Winter’s Bone
8. 127 Hours
6. The King’s Speech
5. Black Swan
4. The Fighter
3. Toy Story 3
2. The Social Network
1. True Grit
My Vote: This race is between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. Everything else is to be considered a spoiler. Assuming that to be the case, my vote is The Social Network. I loved The King’s Speech, and I’m not as upset that it’s probably going to win, but, I liked The Social Network better. However, if True Grit is in contention, that becomes my vote. Because that actually has become my favorite nominated movie of the year.
Most Likely to Win: This is a toss up. At first, The Social Network seemed to have it in the bag. It swept every single precursor award. All the local critics circles, The Golden Globes — everything. Then, The King’s Speech won the Producer’s Guild and the Director’s Guild, something everyone thought Fincher was a lock to win. And it won the BAFTA’s, but, fucking really? The British Academy Awards voted for a film about one of their kings. Big surprise. However, they did vote for Fincher for Best Director, which will come in handy in a hop, skip and a jump. However, as of last Saturday, The Social Network won the award for Best Editing. And they say a Best Picture is almost certainly not going to win if it doesn’t get a Best Editing nomination. Now, that doesn’t mean too much, since Best Picture doesn’t always win Best Editing. But it’s helpful in seeing where the night is heading. So, because of that, this race is still neck and neck. It’s really that close. However, purely because it is the Academy’s cup of tea, I say The King’s Speech is the favorite heading in.
Biggest Competition: The Social Network. Obviously. If it’s not one, it’s the other. Come on, dead eyes, look alive.
Spoiler Alert: True Grit and The Fighter. At first it was True Grit, and everyone was saying that, with a vote split, Grit could take it. But now The Fighter seems to be catching a late surge of momentum. So, those two appear to be the #3 and #4 films. Black Swan is too dark, Inception missed out on too many key nominations, 127 Hours will never happen, Kids are All Right is a comedy, Toy Story 3 is gonna win Best Animated, and Winter’s Bone has support but is an indie and will never win. So, your only two spoilers are really those ones up there. Which is cool, because I like those. But you’d have to be a real maverick to take that. Picking one of those two to win would be considered going rogue.
Rankings of likely to win (to make it easier for you): 1) King’s Speech, 2) Social Network, 3) The Fighter, 4) True Grit, 5) Toy Story 3, 6) Black Swan, 7) Inception, 8) 127 Hours, 9) Winter’s Bone, 10) The Kids are All Right. (Also possible #9 is as high as #7. But, what difference does that make?)
Note: For extra help, see the article I posted yesterday.
If I Were a Betting Man: I’d say, if you want to play it safe, take The King’s Speech. If you want to take a slight chance, but not a huge one, take The Social Network. It all depends on what you’re feeling. This is the tightest race since 2005. And maybe 1998, if we’re looking at precedent. How lucky you feeling?
5. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
4. David O. Russell, The Fighter
3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
2. David Fincher, The Social Network
1. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
My Vote: I loved the Coen’s direction, but, they’ve won, and David Fincher has earned one of these twice over already without ever winning. If he doesn’t win this, he’s gonna turn into the new Martin Scorsese. If that’s not already Chris Nolan, who should really be on this list. So, my vote goes solely to Fincher. The Social Network.
Most Likely to Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech. The history is on his side. The DGA and the Oscar have matched up all but six times, ever. However, in the six times it has not matched up:
1968: DGA = Anthony Harvey, The Lion in Winter
Oscar = Carol Reed, Oliver!
1972: DGA = Francis Ford Coppola, The Godfather
Oscar = Bob Fosse, Cabaret
1985: DGA = Steven Spielberg, The Color Purple
Oscar = Sydney Pollack, Out of Africa
1995: DGA = Ron Howard, Apollo 13
Oscar = Mel Gibson, Braveheart
2000: DGA = Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
Oscar = Steven Soderbergh, Traffic
2002: DGA = Rob Marshall, Chicago
Oscar = Roman Polanski, The Pianist
Only twice has there been a Best Picture/Best Director split. So, of the ~9.7% divergence, 3.2% of that is when Best Director goes to someone who DID NOT direct the Best Picture. So, if we’re playing percentages (which, why would you?), there’s about a 3.2% chance of Fincher winning. Personally, I would call this closer than that. It’s like the coin flip. Even though you had 56/62 heads in a row, there’s still a 50/50 chance a tails will come up on the 63rd flip. The truth is really somewhere in between those two. Probably closer to Hooper winning, since 3 times was Best Director divergent toward the Best Picture winner. Which is possible if The Social Network wins. So, you know, it’s all about no guts no glory, or playing the odds. The odds say Tom Hooper is the most likely to win. The DGA hath spoken.
Biggest Competition: Fincher for The Social Network. Some things just bear repeating. Personally, I still say he’s the favorite to win, but, you know me, I’m retarded.
Spoiler Alert: Is there one? No Chris Nolan, so, almsot certainly not. If anyone, it’s David O. Russell for The Fighter. But, even then — you have less than a Fincher’s chance. That’s the new phrase for this category. Only for this year. So not really a phrase at all. We’re gonna Munson it once the ceremony is over. Don’t bother expecting a spoiler. This is a head’s up battle. Boss fight.
Rankings of likely to win: 1) Hooper, 2) Fincher, 3) Russell, 4) Brothers Coen, 5) Aronofsky
If I Were a Betting Man: Personally, I’m taking Fincher. I truly believe that there’s going to be a split here, and since The King’s Speech is likely to to take Best Picture, I’m gonna say Fincher will in this. However, if it goes the other way, and Hooper wins Best Director and The Social Network wins Best Picture, then the percentages will have been played and all worked out according to tradition. Also of note, Fincher won the BAFTA. Not even the Brits voted for Hooper. So that’s a big argument in Fincher’s case. Because the old directors might not have understood The Social Network. The Academy is much more liberal in these cases.
However, if you want to play it safe (as in 90% chance of being correct), take Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech. The DGA hath spoken. If you want to take a shot, then brush your shoulders off should it come out, take David Fincher for The Social Network. Your call. Odds favor Hooper, Fincher remains a threat.
5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
(I will admit I haven’t seen this. I can’t find a damn copy with English subtitles.)
4. James Franco, 127 Hours
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
My Vote: Is actually Colin Firth. The King’s Speech. I know. But, I came around on the performance. Not that I didn’t think he was worthy before, just, now I’ve confirmed.
Most Likely to Win: Firth. The King’s Speech. All but assured.
Biggest Competition: No one. Motherfucker’s got this locked.
Spoiler Alert: If anyone, probably Bardem. Eisenberg’s too young in the Academy’s eyes and Bridges has one. They’ll vote Bardem if not Firth. But this is less than a 10% chance.
Rankings of likely to win: 1) Firth, 2) Eisenberg, 3) Bardem, 4) Franco, 5) Bridges
I put Bardem so high because Julia Roberts has a lot of friends. And she’s been openly supporting him all season. I still think she’s the reason he got nominated. So that, to me, gives him some votes. If that’s not the case, then he’s 5th. Either way, Firth has it locked.
If I Were a Betting Man: Firth is the winner. Anything else would be a huge shock. Like, Adrien Brody shock. The King’s Speech.
5. Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
2. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
My Vote: Natalie. Black Swan. Hands down. Despite loving Michelle Williams’s performance. Any other year…
Most Likely to Win: Natalie, for Black Swan. This is almost as locked as locked can be. Not as sure a thing as Best Actor, but pretty fucking close.
Biggest Competition: Annette Bening. The Kids are All Right. They like her, she’s “due.” I say, too little, too late. Should have given it to her for American Beauty when you had the chance. This is Natalie’s year. But, she’s the only person they’d vote for. I think.
Spoiler Alert: Michelle Williams. Blue Valentine. This is me being hopeful. Nicole’s won one and Jennifer Lawrence is way too young.
Rankings of likely to win: 1) Portman, 2) Bening, 3) Williams, 4) Kidman, 5) Lawrence
If I Were a Betting Man: You wanna vote against Natalie? Be my guest. Definitely not a calculated risk, though. Black Swan.
This would have (probably should have) been two in three years for Darren. Pretty good fucking track record.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
4. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
My Vote: Bale. The Fighter. Hands down. Motherfucker was too good to ignore. Blew everyone else out of the water, like Thera. Or, Poseidon, if we’re going for a more obvious reference.
Most Likely to Win: Tough, but based on precursors you have to say Bale for The Fighter. Geoffrey Rush is a fairly close second, though.
Biggest Competition: Geoffrey Rush, for The King’s Speech. If the sweep is on (the fix too), Rush wins this. Bale should still be able to take it, but really, you never can tell with this Academy, so this remains essentially a toss-up, 51-49 Bale.
Spoiler Alert: No one. It’s between those two. Anything else would be a colossal upset. But if I had to pick anyone to upset, it would be Ruffalo for The Kids are All Right. Which should tell you the likelihood of that happening.
Rankings of likely to win: 1) Bale, 2) Rush, 3) Ruffalo, 4) Renner, 5) Hawkes (personally, I’d switch 3 and 4, but I just feel Ruffalo will get votes to be 3rd. Not that it matters.)
If I Were a Betting Man: Bale, for The Fighter. But you would not be wrong in picking Rush for The King’s Speech. I don’t think it’s as close as Supporting Actress, though. SAG counts for a lot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
This category is fucking impossible. They’re all #1s in a weak year. This reminds of of 2007….which, more on that later.
5. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (only because she’s really a lead)
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
This is a tough fucking category. Ask me in ten minutes, I might change my opinion. Adams is really not a #5. Goddamn, this is a great year for supporting actresses.
My Vote: Yeah, I’m not so sure here. Honestly, I probably wouldn’t be too upset if either Carter or Leo or Steinfeld won. So, in the interest of it being a true supporting role and being very strong, I say either Steinfeld or Melissa Leo. Let’s go with Leo. She’s actually a supporting role. But, ask me in ten minutes, I’ll tell you something different. I’d say it’s between her and Steinfeld. The Fighter or True Grit.
Most Likely to Win: Melissa Leo, for The Fighter. This is based purely on precursors.
Biggest Competition: Helena Bonham Carter, for The King’s Speech. Based purely on the sweep factor.
Spoiler Alert: Hailee Steinfeld, for True Grit.
****BIG NOTE ON THIS CATEGORY**** — This is the most wide open of the categories. Melissa Leo is the favorite, having won most of the precursors, SAG and the Golden Globe. That should put her as a solid favorite, and her losing will technically count as an upset. However, The King’s Speech still can sweep, and that will take Helena Bonham Carter with it. She won the BAFTA, but, really… It’s odd to say that The Fighter will win two acting awards. In actuality, The King’s Speech could easily win those two. Logic favors a split. Which way, no one knows. This is what makes these categories interesting. However, I hear rumblings that Hailee Steinfeld could take this. I don’t know how much of a possibility that is, but if she does, not only will I be ecstatically happy, but I will also be very, very surprised. First off, kids don’t really win here. Patty Duke, Tatum O’Neal, Anna Paquin. Those are the only times a child has won. However, this is the only category it’s ever happened in, so there’s always that. If you’re feeling saucy, you may want to vote Steinfeld. All three are deserving, but I, personally will feel a bit let down with a Carter win, just because I thought the other two did so much better.
Also, there’s a minor controversy astir with these ads of Melissa Leo’s. She took out some sort of ads, which, I guess are to make fun of the whole awards process, of her getting all dolled up and such. They’re saying it could lose her the award. I don’t see it, but, people are stupid. You never know what i’ll do. Also, I really see Steinfeld being more of a contender than Carter here. I don’t know why.
Rankings of likely to win: 1) Leo, 2) Steinfeld, 3) Carter, 4) Adams, 5) Weaver
If I Were a Betting Man: I almost say I can’t vote for Leo because it would be too improbable for The Fighter to take two, but, Leo for The Fighter is probably the safest bet. Carter hasn’t taken nearly enough awards for me to consider her that much of a threat to take it. But, she’s always a possibility. I really think, if there’s gonna be an upset, it’s going to be Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. That would be more of a no guts no glory pick. Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech is still a viable pick though. I think it’s probably third best, picks-wise, but, you certainly wouldn’t be out of order doing so.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
5) Another Year
(Haven’t seen this, because it was an early favorite to be nominated for more, and I want to be objective when I finally do. But, it’s Mike Leigh. He doesn’t write scripts. It’s all improv.)
4) The Kids are All Right
3) The Fighter
1) The King’s Speech
My Vote: I know, I’m surprised too. But, The King’s Speech is a hell of a script. Plus, dude waited like twenty years for the Queen Mum to die before submitting it to be filmed. That alone makes him worthy. Also, I will say, Inception is a very, very well done film, but, in terms of writing, I don’t know. There’s a lot of exposition, and, while I would be happy if it did win, it won’t, plus, I think the whole thing is more of an auteur’s vision, which is why Chris Nolan should have been nominated for (and possibly won) Best Director. I feel giving him Best Director would have encompassed all of his effort in doing this.
Most Likely to Win: The King’s Speech. It’s all but assured at this point. If it lost, it would be a major upset. I’d say minor, but, this is a Best Picture film here. Precious beating Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker beating Inglourious Basterds were minor upsets. This losing, would be a major one.
Biggest Competition: Inception
Spoiler Alert: The Fighter. If any. But that’s a huge long shot. And if it wins, consider this a real threat to possibly steal Best Picture.
Rankings of likely to win: My rankings. Kids are All Right probably has a slightly better chance than 4th, but, I don’t think it’ll win.
If I Were a Betting Man: Take The King’s Speech. Let the battle of the Best Pictures rage on. I like that we’re at a stalemate and that these two are pretty evenly matched in the categories that matter. Taking Inception is more of a hopeful bet. I don’t think it has a chance to win.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
5) 127 Hours
4) Winter’s Bone
3) Toy Story 3
2) True Grit
1) The Social Network
Most Likely to Win: The Social Network WILL win this. Don’t even bother betting on anyone else.
Biggest Competition: The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin is his own worst enemy. Fortunately, he hasn’t done anything to jinx himself, so he will take it.
Spoiler Alert: Anyone. If anyone but Sorkin wins this it will be the biggest upset since — whatever. You get the point. You’re taking your life in your hands voting against Sorkin.
If I Were a Betting Man: Seriously? Sorkin. The Social Network. The best script of the year.
5) Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
4) Danny Cohen, The King’s Speech
3) Wally Pfister, Inception
2) Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network
1) Roger Deakins, True Grit
My Vote: If anyone but Roger Deakins wins this, it will be a tragedy. It will be the biggest injustice since the last time Roger Deakins lost. True Grit.
Most Likely to Win: Deakins. True Grit. You have to assume they’ve smartened up and will finally award this man after years of work. This is like Martin Scorsese not having a Best Director Oscar. Seriously. Look at his work. Tell me the man hasn’t been due seven times over already.
Biggest Competition: I guess Inception. The Cinematographers Guild gave it to Pfister. But, they’ve awarded Deakins multiple times already, and gave him a lifetime achievement award this year. So that might have had something to do with it. We’re all just going on the assumption that Deakins will still win the Oscar.
Spoiler Alert: Whichever Best Picture film is poised to take it. Either The Social Network or The King’s Speech. If you believe a sweep is in, in either direction, and you think they’ll snub Deakins one more time, go with whichever of the two you think is most likely to win. Though I will say, based purely on cinematography, The Social Network is the better choice. But if the fix is in, the fix is in. So, who knows? If you’re looking for some sort of guidance, check my article on Cinematography and look for a pattern or something. Personally, I can’t see anyone but Deakins taking this unless a hardcore sweep is in.
If I Were a Betting Man: Take Deakins for True Grit. Or, if you really think otherwise, for the reasons I’ve stated above, take one of the two Best Picture films.
5) The King’s Speech
4) 127 Hours
3) Black Swan
2) The Fighter
1) The Social Network
Most Likely to Win: The Social Network. Has to be. Just won the Editing award last weekend. It’s essential for a Best Picture winner to receive a Best Editing nomination, but it is not essential for it to win the award. It certainly helps though.
Biggest Competition: The King’s Speech. One would assume, right? The Best Picture candidates, duking it out once more. I would think The Fighter a logical alternate, but without Inception on here (or True Grit, which makes that almost certain to not win Best Picture), I can’t see anyone but these two being the top two.
Spoiler Alert: The Fighter. Boxing picture, underdog to take it all. It’s possible.
Rankings of likely to win: 1) The Social Network 2) The King’s Speech 3) The Fighter 4) Black Swan 5) 127 Hours
If I Were a Betting Man: The Social Network. The Editors Guild award has been correct for the past ten years. They missed 2000, giving it to Gladiator, when Traffic won the Oscar (not sure why). Before that they were wrong in 1995, with the Oscar going to Apollo 13 and the Editors Guild giving it to Braveheart (that’s weird they were reversed like that). They were also wrong four times in the 80s. So, overall, especially recently, a fucking amazing track record. So, stick with The Social Network.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
3) How to Train Your Dragon
2) The Illusionist
1) Toy Story 3
Most Likely to Win: Fucking really?
Spoiler Alert: How to Train Your Dragon. There’s always a chance.
Rankings of likely to win: 2 and 3 reversed on mine.
If I Were a Betting Man: Does this count as betting? Toy Story 3.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Yeah, because I’m gonna have rankings for this. Or colors:
In a Better World, Denmark
Outside the Law, Algeria
My Vote: Having seen none of these, let’s go with either Canada or Greece. Greece sounds supremely fucked up and Canada is the one everyone’s saying is the best.
Most Likely to Win: I guess we have to go precursor here and pick the film that won the Globe, which was In a Better World. Though it’s important to note that the Globe winner and the Oscar winner have diverged for the better part of this decade. Most notably the last three years, which are very specifically diverged. 2006, Letters from Iwo Jima won the Globe even though it’s an American film in a foreign language. Same for 2007. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly wasn’t even nominated for Foregn Film. So not really three years, but two. Though I’m counting this year as well since I think they’re gonna go another way. 2008, Waltz With Bashir won the Globe and Departures won the Oscar. And last year, The White Ribbon won Cannes and won the Globe, and everyone thought it was a lock to take the Oscar. And then The Secret in Their Eyes came along and won it. And now, everyone is saying that the latter was actually a better film.
So, really, what this comes down to is knowing which of these truly is the best film of the bunch. The only way they can vote for it is by having seen all of them. So usually whichever truly is the best movie (except 2006. I mean, I liked The Lives of Others, but, Pan’s Labyrinth wasn’t the best?) usually wins here. I’ll get back to that in a second, but, for right now let’s say Denmark is still the favorite.
Biggest Competition: I think it’s Canada, because all the praise seems to be going onto Incendies.
Spoiler Alert: Dogtooth. Right? Because it’s so fucked up? Honestly any of them, really. Anyone but Mexico, mostly because I feel when it’s nominated for other awards, specifically acting or directing, people just won’t vote for it in this category.
Rankings of likely to win: Do you really fucking care? Or know? Seriously, I’m asking. Because I’ll put it if you know. Actually, let’s make it up and say, 1) Denmark, 2) Canada, 3) Greece, 4) Algeria (True spoiler, because I haven’t heard anything about it and yet, I assume that means it’ll win), 5) Mexico
If I Were a Betting Man: I’m taking Canada. Denmark is the favorite, so, odds are on them, but, you can’t trust this category. I say, if you take 1 or 2 you on the rankings you probably have the best shot. Greece has an outside chance, Algeria feels like a shocker and I seem to think Mexico has no chance at all. So, take that as you will.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
5) 127 Hours
4) How to Train Your Dragon
3) The King’s Speech
1) The Social Network
My Vote: The Social Network was the best score nominated. The best scores note nominated were the best two film scores of the year — Daft Punk’s amazing Tron: Legacy score and Carter Burwell’s great True Grit score. The Black Swan score was nice, but used the Swan Lake score too heavily and was disqualified. But as for what’s nominated, it’s The Social Network.
Most Likely to Win: The Social Network. I find this hard to believe, that Trent Reznor will win an Oscar, but, it’s swept almost every major precursor. So, I guess that makes it the favorite. It’s not a lock by any stretch of the imagination, but is definitely the favorite.
Biggest Competition: The King’s Speech. Battle of the heavyweights, once more. This one is ripe for a King’s Speech upset because, honestly, no one really votes on score. They usually vote for composers over the actual film score. And Alexandre Desplat is one of the most respected composers working today. Personally I think this should be considered the favorite, and have all along, just because of the Academy’s disinclination toward “rock stars.”
Spoiler Alert: Inception. Easily. Zimmer is always a threat to win. But, he hasn’t won since The Lion King, and this score was really only one note. I’m sure people would think it would make sense that he’d win this, but, really, would be an upset and, in my mind, isn’t deserving. But when does deserving matter? Plus he bitched when his Dark Knight score wasn’t nominated — which, hands up if you remember any of that score? Anyone? So, he does count as spoiler, since, this category is fairly open. But, he’s no more than that. Only vote on him if you’re willing to take a chance.
If I Were a Betting Man: Personally, I’d take The King’s Speech. But, The Social Network is the favorite, and is probably the most likely to win. I just have a hard time thinking Trent Reznor will win an Oscar. That Springsteen snub from two years ago still stings. So, this one is sort of a toss up, but odds favor The Social Network.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
(You can listen to these for yourself. Isn’t stealing great?)
4) “If I Rise,” 127 Hours
3) “Coming Home,” Cuntry Strong
2) “I See the Light,” Tangled
1) “We Belong Together,” Toy Story 3
My Vote: Randy Newman is always the winner on my ballot. Always.
Let us get this out of the way now — this category is bullshit. It’s slowly been losing any respect it had over the past decade and this year is an all time low. This category now means less to me than Best Makeup. Seriously. Now, that said, we still have to pick this shit.
After listening to all of them, I am amazed that the Cuntry Strong song wasn’t the one from the trailer — you know, the one that gives the film it’s fucking title! Then again, Paltrow sings this herself, and they might award the films based solely on that. Keep that in mind. And the Tangled song is a nice-sounding duet. I’ll give them that. I don’t remember the songs in this, though. It’s not exactly classic Disney.
Most Likely to Win: I’m going Disney/Pixar. It’s either Randy Newman, Toy Story 3 or Tangled. Has to be. Right?
Biggest Competition: Uhh…the other one? Gwyneth? Cuntry Strong?
Spoiler Alert: “If I Rise, 127 Hours. They love Rahman. The score sucked but they nominated it anyway. He got a lot of goodwill after Slumdog. Don’t rule him out.
Seriously though, can anyone pick this? And do you even care to with a category this weak?
Rankings of likely to win: No rankings. They all suck. Randy Newman is #1. No one else matters.
If I Were a Betting Man: Honestly, 127 Hours sounds like it’s most likely to win. But I take Randy Newman every time, so, Toy Story 3.
BEST SOUND MIXING
4) The King’s Speech
3) The Social Network
1) True Grit
My Vote: True Grit. I know Inception was all about the sound and stuff, but I love me some westerns.
Most Likely to Win: I guess it would be Inception, even though True Grit won the Sound Guild award. They also usually pick well in the sound categories. Either it’s a big loud film or one you can see winning. So, one of these two are most likely.
Biggest Competition: The one that isn’t the favorite. So, True Grit. It’s essentially between these two.
Spoiler Alert: The Social Network?
Rankings of likely to win: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit 3) The King’s Speech 4) The Social Network 5) Salt
If I Were a Betting Man: Go True Grit or Inception. Inception seems like the obvious choice, but they like True Grit to the tune of 10 nominations, and they’re gonna reward it somewhere. This seems obvious. I smell an upset.
BEST SOUND EDITING
5) Toy Story 3
4) Tron: Legacy
1) True Grit
My Vote: Western. Always. Clippity cloppity.
Most Likely to Win: I have to assume True Grit. It should win one or the other.
Biggest Competition: Inception again. Sometimes one sweeps sometimes they split. No one really knows.
Spoiler Alert: Unstoppable. It’s big, it’s loud, it’s possible.
Rankings of likely to win: Meh, let’s say mine. I don’t want to type anymore.
If I Were a Betting Man: True Grit or Inception. Take Unstoppable if you want to take a chance.
BEST ART DIRECTION
5) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
4) The King’s Speech
3) True Grit
2) Alice in Wonderland
My Vote: Inception was the best job. Problem is, it might actually not win.
Most Likely to Win: Inception better be the most likely to win. Though Alice in Wonderland also won at the Art Awards. So it’s a tossup between these two for favorite.
Biggest Competition: Alice in Wonderland, just because it’s not the better film and you have to assume they might actually try to reward the film nominated for Best Picture somewhere else.
Spoiler Alert: The King’s Speech. Sweep factor.
Rankings of likely to win: 1) Inception 2) The King’s Speech 3) Alice in Wonderland 4) True Grit 5) Potter
If I Were a Betting Man: Honestly, I’m taking Inception. Then King’s Speech can upset, but not really. But actually, since they announced King’s Speech was filmed on the set that’s regularly used for gay porn, I’m rooting for that. Alice can be there, but, yeah… one of those three.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
5) The Tempest
4) I am Love
3) The King’s Speech
2) Alice in Wonderland
1) True Grit
My Vote: True Grit by default. I don’t really love any one of these enough in terms of costumes, so, go with the favorite film. Why not? That Texas Ranger costume was boss.
Most Likely to Win: It’s clearly The King’s Speech. Don’t bet against the period piece, ever.
Biggest Competition: Alice in Wonderland. They were cray-cray. That’s crazy and Crayola colored.
Spoiler Alert: True Grit. Ten nominations doesn’t lie.
Rankings of likely to win: Who cares?
If I Were a Betting Man: The King’s Speech. Period piece, motherfucker.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
5) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
4) Iron Man 2
2) Alice in Wonderland
My Vote: Come on.
Most Likely to Win: Come on.
Biggest Competition: No one.
Spoiler Alert: Seriously?
Rankings of likely to win: …
If I Were a Betting Man: Inception.
3) The Way Back
2) Barney’s Version
1) The Wolfman
My Vote: The Wolfman. You know, the one with actual makeup.
Most Likely to Win: The Wolfman. Rick Baker has a great track record. Like a junkie on crack street.
Biggest Competition: Barney’s Version.
Spoiler Alert: The other one?
Rankings of likely to win: My rankings.
If I Were a Betting Man: The Wolfman. You have a 2/3 chance.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
(Can’t rank what you haven’t seen.)
Exit Through the Gift Shop
My Vote: Exit Through the Gift Shop. Sounds too awesome to not to.
Most Likely to Win: Inside Job and Restrepo seem to be the two favorites. It’s all hearsay, though.
Biggest Competition: I guess Gift Shop.
Spoiler Alert: The other two?
Rankings of likely to win:Fuck if I know. It’s Best documentary.
If I Were a Betting Man: I’m taking Gift Shop. I say best odds are either Inside Job, the obvious choice that I think probably won’t win, or Restrepo, about a platoon in Afghanistan, that everyone seems to love. So, that’s probably the smart choice.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Killing in the Name
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
I’m not ranking shit. I don’t know. I do not care.
If I Were a Betting Man: Random vote, let’s take Poster Girl. I’m gonna pretend she’s Soulja Boy’s cousin.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
God of Love
If I Were a Betting Man: Anything but Na Wewe.It seems too easy. The Crush seems cute. I’ll vote for that. Don’t listen to me on these. No one knows.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Day & Night
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage
If I Were a Betting Man: I vote Pixar. That seems to be the Best. Madagascar looks the nicest, Let’s Pollute is funny, The Lost Thing seems boring, and The Gruffalo looks the most likely to win. Yeah, you know, these are always random.