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The Box Office Report – May 6-8

Last week, in Box Office…

Shit got real. Fast Five opened to more than double the largest opening of the year thus far. It opened with more money than the top two biggest openings combined. I shit you not. The two biggest openings thus far were Rio, with $39 million and Rango, with $38 million. Together, that’s $76 million.

Fast Five made $86.2 million. By itself. Talk about blowing shit out of the water. That’s Hiro-fucking-shima. It ranks as the 24th best opening weekend of all time. Here’s a list of them, so you can be both happy and sickened at the same time at some of them. But still, $86 million — fucking wow. Big fucking wow.

I will say, having seen it before it came out — it was definitely the best in the series. Plus the budget was only $125 million — which isn’t so bad. It’s a lot, but in this day and age, $125 million should be the standard blockbuster type budget. $300 million is too much. Still, this movie’s looking to do around $170 million domestically and about $300 million and change worldwide. Hefty sum. But, this franchise has been around for a while. It weathered the storm. I feel it’s earned it. Plus, it’s gonna keep the series fresh, since they’re now transitioning to heists instead of street racing. Now you’ll get your obligatory race in the context of the bigger story which is, let’s steal a lot of money with cars. Which now takes away any possibility of that Italian Job sequel ever happening. (Note: I think this film may have been it. It was called “The Brazilian Job.” Shit got waxed.)

Finishing second was Rio. Everyone figured we were looking at $15-18 million, but, when a film makes over its tracking it’s bound to take money away from everything else. This wasn’t affected as much as some other films were. It made $14.8 million. Almost made 15. Most were expecting 16-17, but, still, within the range. 43% drop. Right on target, albeit a little high. But, $86 million, you’ll take 43%.

Third was Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family. It dropped 60% (Note: Told ya) to $9.9 million. $10-11 million was expected and the money suck only siphoned off a few hundred thousand dollars. Not bad, considering. The film is at $40.1 million and should finish exactly like all Tyler Perry movies finish — just over double its production budget.

Fourth — notice how I haven’t named more than one new release thus far? Yeah, it was brutal — was Water for Elephants, which should be the subtitle to this week’s box office report. $86 million is a shitload of water for the elephant that was Fast Five. But, Water for Elephants made $9.3 million, and held to a nice 44.5% drop. That’s really good for a film like this. Goes to show you that dramas do, in fact, hold. $8-9 million was always the number here. This one weathered the storm really well. It’s also $6 million away from reaching its production budget, which it’s almost certainly to do within the next ten days. Which means a nice little hit and a plus one in the war against the blockbusters.

Finishing fifth — here’s where we have to take a moment of silence for the fallen comrades — was — oh, wait, it’s Disney, fuck this movie — Prom, a movie that I’m so fucking happy it failed. It only had an $8 million production budget, so the $4.7 million it made this weekend was just fine for the studio. If I’d seen that budget I’d never have guessed as high as I did. This film was never meant to make more than $15 million in theaters. Either way, I’m glad it made less than $5 million. Ha ha.

Finishing sixth was Hoodwinked 2: Hood vs. Evil. This upsets me, actually. I remember when the first Hoodwinked came out I was excited to see it. I saw a trailer and knew it was essentially an animated movie for adults. Very raunchy humor. Then I never saw it, and still haven’t seen it. And then this one, I was hoping maybe would get some notice, since, clearly the first one had to have made an impact to warrant a sequel. And yet — it only made $4.1 million in its opening weekend. With a budget of $30 million. That is, not good. But I will see it though. After I watch the first one, because I do remember being excited to see it. Now it’ll be out of solidarity, but hey, a viewer’s a viewer, right?

That’s it for solid numbers — if two of the new releases couldn’t finish above $5 million, I’m not gonna bother telling you about chump change. I will, however, talk total tallies right now.

Soul Surfer has passed $33 million domestically, which is almost double its budget. Great success there. Insidious is at $48 million and will probably end up at around $50 million — off a $1.5 million budget. What the fuck? That’s 33 1/3 x its budget. Hop has crossed $105 million off a $63 million budget (that’s just domestically), which means we’ll be plagued with another one of those in two years. Brace yourself, America. Source Code is just under $50 million ($32 million budget) and will cross that threshold probably by next weekend. Big win there. Hanna is a hundred grand away from $36 million off a $30 million budget. Huge win there. Scream 4 will not be making back its $40 million budget domestically. It has, however, made $70 million worldwide, so its doing just fine. Limitless has crossed $76 million off a $27 million budget. Givungus win there. Arthur has no chance of making back its $40 million budget domestically or worldwide. Big bucket of win for the world on that one. Big fan of that failure. The Lincoln Lawyer is about to hit $55 million off a $40 million budget. Here’s hoping they use the next book in that series and make another one for 2013. And The Adjustment Bureau is $10 million over budget domestically and no doubt has a lot more in foreign sales to make that a big win too.

Oh hey, that Dylan Dog movie came out. That’s right. Oh boy. Only made $760,000. That’s not good. Well, maybe it’ll show up online sooner and I’ll get to see what the hell it is. Which, reminds me —

We have to do it, don’t we? I think we do. Okay, one last time, ladies and gentlemen, it’s time for the final installment of — that’s right, you guessed it — Let’s All Laugh at Sucker Punch!

Sucker Punch, a terrible, terrible film, was one of the biggest bombs to come out in recent years. Opening to an abysmally low amount and terrible reviews, the film failed in the most public manner possible. Now, I’m spending its remaining weeks in theaters mocking it endlessly, because films like this don’t deserve to succeed. Making another earth-shattering $56,218 this week, the film’s domestic total now stands at $36.06 million, which is just under $46 million shy of its production budget of $82 million. The film has, however, made a total of $89.46 million worldwide, to seemingly cover said production budget, but in reality, studios routinely spend $30-60 million in advertising on major films (and that’s only domestically), so in reality, Sucker Punch will probably never see back the amount of money that was spent to make it, thus making it a very expensive flaming turd. And one that we all should laugh at, and hope it never comes around again. That’s it for Let’s All Laugh at Sucker Punch, I hope you all enjoyed it, I’m Casey Kasem.

So that’s it for the results form last week. Onto the new releases…

The big movie opening this weekend is Thor, which, just like last week’s big film, I’ve also seen. Does this bode well for its chances? Or does it not matter because the film’s gonna make fucking bank anyway? I’m thinking a bit of both, and I’m gonna take the credit anyway.

Having seen the film, I can tell you that it’s a very enjoyable movie, and looks really good. Of course the CGI looks obvious at places, but that’s commonplace nowadays, since the studios believe we accept that it’s clearly CGI and would rather pretend things are as awesome as they were thought up as being. But, overall, the film is very enjoyable, and rates somewhere between a 3.5 and a 4 star movie. Kenneth Branagh does a real nice job of directing it, and just can’t resist making Thor’s relationship with Odin and Loki about as Shakespearean as the tip of Sir Laurence Olivier’s penis. Which Kenneth Branagh knows more than a little something about. (Note: Not calling Branagh gay, just saying he’s in love with Olivier. Which is obvious to anyone that’s seen his Shakespeare movies.)

Anyway, that’s my mini-review. I recommend you seeing this in theaters. Now, this movie opens on the May Day weekend, which is notorious for pumping out huge earners. Marvel huge earners too. Spider-Man 3, Iron Man, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, and Iron Man 2 were the last four films to open on this weekend. I didn’t post that biggest opening weekends list up there for no reason. Every single film on that list I just gave you made enough money to be in the Top 25 openings of all time (26, now, with Fast Five). Spidey made $151 million (though a #3), Iron Man 1 made $98 million, 2 made $128 million, Wolvey made $85 million (and that’s with the film leaking on the internet three weeks early). What I’m saying is, the weekend makes money. Though this one is an opener and not a sequel. Though with the first Iron Man doing $98 million, it’s safe to say this film will make fucking bank.

I’d say, conventional wisdom says to wager about $70 million here. Not on the film, just, what it’ll do. $70 million is the central figure. It could do more, it could do less. I wouldn’t go higher than $80 million, because — back to back weekends? — but I wouldn’t go lower than $60 million. So, $70 million it is. Honestly, after $55 million, does it really matter?

And the other film opening this week is Something Borrowed, a shitty Kate Hudson Rom Com. I assume it’ll be shitty, but I don’t know. It’s a Rom Com. They usually are shitty. Kate Hudson apparently plays the bitch here and it’s Ginnifer Goodwin who’s the lead. Which means she’s nice and bubbly for most of the movie and hides her true feelings in order to be nice. I’m sure it’ll suck. And I’m sure it won’t make money. Thor is gonna make bank. The higher it makes, the more money suck it has. Like last week. It makes more, these movies make less. If it does where it should be, this should make somewhere between $10-13 million. I’ll say $12 million, just because. I really don’t care. The summer is the least interesting time to guess for me. It’s like doing the weather in San Diego — “It’s gonna be nice.” — one blanket statement and you’re done. The real interest for me here is guessing the drops. I don’t really care what the new films do. So you’ll see me just dropping random numbers for new films for the next few months. I won’t try to narrow it down because — fuck, they all make $200 million. Who cares what they open to? I’d rather be telling you which ones not to go to because they’re part of the problem. So, yeah, $12 million on this, whatever. Do not give a fuck.

The other film opening is Jumping the Broom — which I assume is about the wicked witch who went X-Games. Oh, no, it’s a black Rom Com. One that’s not a Tyler Perry movie. Yeah — anyone feeling less than $10 million on this? I’ll thinking like $7-8 million. Maybe 9, if it’s lucky. These movies always do poorly.

That’s the new films — pretty boring past Thor. And now for the holdovers…

Fast Five is looking at the standard Furious drop. That is — films like this often have a steep drop after the first weekend. Candy often does. People chase the rush with other films. The last entry in the series had a 61% drop in weekend two, which was still good for $27 million. Plus with Thor being the action movie everyone’s gonna go to — you’re looking at minimum a 60% drop here.

So, assuming just a 60% drop and no more, you’re looking at around $34.5 million. I know, right? Amazing how this works. If it’s a 65% drop, you’re looking at $30 million even. So, let’s assume it’ll be around the first one, maybe a bit more, and say like, 61-62% drop, which should put us around — $33-34 million. I’m thinking like $33.8 million. High 38, low 34. 34.1. That’s my guess. See what I mean about the holdovers being more fun to guess?

Rio is also still drawing money. Since there are no kids movies to suck money from it (that matter, really), I’ll assume around a 35-40% drop, and figure it’ll end the weekend with about $9 million and change. It definitely will not finish with more than $10 million (if it does, very low 10 and that means something else failed big) and certainly won’t finish less than 7. You have very good odds with this one guessing between $8-9 million. High 8, low-to-mid 9. Almost definitely, I’d say.

Tyler Perry — oh fuck that. you know this movie will barely clear $5 million this weekend. $4-5.5 million almost definitely.

Water for Elephants. Okay, now this I can fucks with. It made $9.3 million last week. So, let’s figure like — $6 million for this. Maybe $5 million and change. I have to figure a decent hold here. This is most susceptible to the money suck, but, I still say it clears 5 and works its way toward 6.

That’s it, really. Who’d have thought two new releases would have finished under $5 million last week? Ooh, maybe it’ll happen again this week. That would be fucking fantastic.

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