The Box Office Report – May 13-15

Last week, in Box Office…

Thor unleashed his mighty hammer to the tune of $65.7 million. $70 million was always the number there. It was a bit of an underwhelming debut in terms of what they predicted, but is anyone ever unhappy with a $65 million debut? So it made $5 million less than expected. That’s still fucking great for a superhero that nobody cares about. It’ll end up making back 2/3 of its budget after two weekends. I think they’re happy with that.

Finishing second, to nobody’s surprise, was Fast Five, making $32.4 million. I said you were looking between $32-34 million. I said $33.8 million, but still, that was pretty fucking good. It was almost exactly between a 60 and 65% drop, which is exactly what it was supposed to do. It’s now at $139.8 million after two weekends, and considering the production budget was only $125 million, that’s fucking great for them. I guarantee you they’re almost already in the black on this one. I mean, they’re not, since they need around $250 million to break even, probably, but, they’re looking at a profit on this one sooner rather than later.

Finishing third to more money than was expected (which makes sense, since Thor made less money than was expected), was Jumping the Broom. That’s right — the black movie beat the shitty white movie. Ha ha! It made $15.2 million. I know nothing of this movie, but I’m interested to see it. Because I know the next movie I’m going to talk about sucks, but I want to know if this is any better. Because if it is, I can hold out hope that audiences are actually going to see the better quality films rather than just flocking to whatever is put on their plates and consuming like the fat Americans they are. But considering a $6.6 million budget, I really don’t care how good this movie is, it’s great. Small budget, makes a nice profit, this is how it should be done. Well, done, whoever made this.

Finishing fourth, with the expected amount of money, which is still too much, was Something Borrowed. For those who don’t know, the plot is what was borrowed — from every shitty romantic comedy to come out in the past ten years. It made $13.9 million and just barely missed $14 million. Off a $35 million budget. And I guarantee you that this and Jumping the Broom look exactly the same in terms of quality. That’s the difference. It can be bad, but if they didn’t waste money on it, it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter, though, it’s a shitty Rom Com, and will be forgotten about two weeks from now.

Finishing fifth was Rio, with another $8.5 million. I said high 8, low 9 — that’s pretty much what it was. $115 million domestic, $90 million budget. Not bad. The film was innocuous, so I’m cool with it. Way too many pop culture references, especially with the whole racist will.i.am thing they had going on. Not sure why they thought kids would like that. But, whatever, we know they’ll never be as good as Disney or Pixar.

Finishing sixth was Water for Elephants, with another $6.1 million. I said $6 million. Swish. Just cleared its $38 million budget and has $42 million so far. Good for it. Midrange hits like this are what keep the studios in business.

That’s about it. The rest were well under $5 million. Though I will point out that I did correctly guess the $4 million on the Tyler Perry movie. That’s worth mentioning.

As for total gross recaps, we have: Tyler Perry is at $47 million, and will, once again, finish at double its opening weekend gross. I like when formula invent themselves. Soul Surfer has just cleared double it budget domestically. And it was also a pretty decent movie, aside from the whole too much Jesus aspect. Prom is just shy of its budget of $8 million. I’m sure that’s all they wanted out of it, and they’re gonna get it. I’m assuming they’ll make their money back on DVD sales. Unless they spent $20 to market it. Which, why the fuck would you spend $20 million to market an $8 million movie? But, that’s Hollywood. Third base.

Hoodwinked 2 failed really badly. I wonder why. It hasn’t even made $7 million after two weekends and had a $30 million budget. I guess it was another one of those Weinstein dumps. They’re pretty obvious with those. They assume they won’t make their money back on something and just dump it into theaters and let it fail. But, I guess they have their reasons, so we let it go.

Insidious has just cleared $50 million off a $1.5 million budget. That’s worthy of acknowledgement, even if I will never see this movie. Source Code has cleared $50 million and is at $90 million worldwide, which is phenomenal. I’m certain they’ve made their money back there.

Oh, also, The Beaver came out in like a hundred theaters. And did nothing. Really, America? Not even gonna give Mel a shot? For shame. That you’ll go see a Kate Hudson movie over that. For fucking shame. Sugar tits.

Well, that’s it for the recap, now onto the new releases….

(Sucker Punch still sucks.)

The big release this week is Bridesmaids. Most people would say it’s the other film opening this week, but I say fuck that. I saw the other film opening this week. It’s this one. I’m interested to see how this does, because it’s looking to be — based on the reviews — much better than The Hangover Part II, simply because, I know the latter film is not even trying and is just rehashing jokes from the first one in order to make money. This one at least has the opportunity to be fresh. But, a “raunchy comedy in the style of a Judd Apatow movie just with women instead of men” isn’t exactly something that gives me hope. I don’t really like Judd Apatow movies. In fact, of the “Apatow” movies that have come out in the past few years, the ones I liked most were the ones he didn’t direct. So, I’m hoping this one can follow suit, but I;m worried that this will be another one of those movies that just has them making jokes about their vaginas and has some stupid over the top comedy and passes it off for “raunch.” Something tells me to temper my expectations here.

And I’m guessing — since America is certifiably retarded — when pressed with a choice between a shitty comedy and a comedy that at worst will be slightly better than shitty and at best will be a really smart (or at least passably smart) and funny movie, they’re gonna go with the shitty movie almost every time. Which means The Hangover is gonna do like $40 million its opening weekend and this will do less than 20. Almost guaranteed.

This film is being projected anywhere between $15-19 million, so, I’m gonna just guess slightly more on the positive side here, because I’m assuming this movie will do more good than bad, and I’ll say it does around $17-18 million. 18 feels like the right number here. Granted, knowing my luck the movie will do exactly what it shouldn’t do. That is, if I see it, and like it, it’ll do $14-15 million. If I see it and don’t like it, it’ll make $22 million. So really you can’t win here. That’s how I’ve come to expect box office as it relates to comedies. The American public has no taste. But, since the film has only a $30 million price tag, it’ll do fine regardless, and even if I don’t like it, it’ll be okay, since it wasn’t budgeted very highly. So I’m cool with it no matter what it does.

The other movie opening this week is Priest. Now, I’ve seen this film already, and I have to tell you — I wasn’t impressed. For a $60 million movie, they sure wasted their money. This movie is like a first cousin to Legion, which, considering, is a vastly superior film. And that’s including the fact that it stole its entire plot from Terminator. (Seriously, have you seen Legion? The only thing missing was the “duh duh duh, duh duh.”) And its budget was only $26 million. Priest is only 89 minutes long, and isn’t even that entertaining to boot. This is a movie that, when I was watching it, was openly comparing it to Jonah Hex, which if you’re not familiar, is not a good comparison.

That said — the movie just doesn’t look like a film that’s gonna make its budget back. Internationally — maybe. But domestically, I’d be surprised if this movie clears $30-35 million.

I’m thinking, that since the film is oversaturating the market, it’ll probably make a decent amount of bank, but not something you’d think a film like this would open to. I’m hearing anything between $10-12 million to $15-16 million. So, having seen it, I’m gonna pray for $12-13 million, but, considering the amount of theaters, I’m just gonna assume $14-15 million, because I have to assume the public will piss me off. And then if they don’t, I can be happy. So, let’s assume the worst and hope for better. Also, whatever this film does has a lot to do with what the next film does, which brings me to…

The holdovers.

Thor is the big holdover this week, and even if it loses more than half its business, will easily win the weekend. This weekend is the downbeat before the big guns come out next week with Pirates. If Thor drops 60%, you’re still looking at almost $27 million. If Priest fails more than expected — which, please, America, go see Thor if you haven’t seen it before you go see Priest. Hell, go see Fast Five before you see Priest — then Thor will make a little more money. The standard drop for Marvel movies is 60%, but, Wolverine managed a surprising 50% drop, which is weird because that’s the one that leaked. My gut is telling me Thor is gonna hold closer to 55%, which is around $30 million, but still, we’re splitting hairs here. It’s gonna win the weekend again, and it’s gonna make more than $25 million and less than $30 million+.

Fast Five is holding well and should continue to do so. Let’s figure a 55% drop, which would give it around $15 million. Others are saying an even smaller drop, giving it $16 million and change, but it’s all dependent on how the other two films do. Don’t go higher than $17 million here and don’t go lower than $14 million. It’ll almost certainly be around $15-16 million.

Next, we have Jumping the Broom. The film made a greater than expected $15 million last week. One has to assume a 50% drop here at least. So, let’s say this does around $7 million. I don’t know. The film’s already in profit, we’re gonna forget about it after next week, I don’t really care.

We also have Something Borrowed, which I have seen and can officially say is perhaps one of the worst films to come out this year thus far. After making just shy of $14 million ($10 million too much), I hope this film drops below $7 million this weekend. I really hope so. Bridesmaids has to take away audience, doesn’t it? So let’s hope for a 60% drop and $5 million and change. At worst low $6 million. Man, this movie sucked.

And finally, Rio. Rio made $8.5 million last weekend, and we have to assume around $5 million here, which should be the last time I mention this film in terms of what it made week to week before it switches over to total gross.

That’s it. Everything else is gonna finish under $5 million, so, let’s hope for a good week.

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