The Box Office Report – July 22-24

Last week, in Box Office…

Well, fuck. I’m pretty sure we all know this by now, but we’ll do it regardless. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II just fucking annihilated everything this weekend. It makes $43 million from midnight showings alone. It makes $92 million on it’s first day. This destroyed the opening day gross for any film ever released, ever. For the weekend? It made $169.2 million. Three days. The previous record holder was The Dark Knight, which made $158 million over its opening weekend.

I mean — who didn’t see this one coming? I’m pretty sure this movie recouped its entire production budget over the weekend, domestically. This movie will make at least a billion dollars worldwide, and will probably end up with over $300 million domestically. I think they’ve earned it.

Also, for those who are curious (and because I love putting forth my opinion) I loved the movie, thought it was probably fourth or fifth best of the eight movies. I rank them thusly — Prisoner of Azkaban, then 2 + 3 are an unranked set of Sorcerer’s Stone and Order of the Phoenix, just because the first one is so magical and wonderful, you almost can’t rank it, but if I had to, it would be probably my second favorite, even though I think Order of the Phoenix is the second best movie. Then 4th I’d probably put this one, just because I like the book more than Goblet of Fire, which I’d put 5th. Then 6th I’d put Deathly Hallows Part I, just because, aside from the unnecessary CGI and crazy naked horcrux, it’s not that bad. Then 7th I’d put Half Blood Prince, just because of the terribly executed Harry/Ginny thing. I think they failed on so many levels with that movie. And then obviously Chamber of Secrets is last. Anyway, back to the box office.

Finishing second — not that anything past #1 matters at all — you’ll see the discrepancy — was Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which made $21.3 million. 55% drop. Potter popped bigger, this movie made less money. That’s how it works. I said 22 as the lower end of this movie’s spectrum, and since Potter broke records, obviously this was gonna go lower. It’s a zero sum game, in a way. One movie makes more, the other movies make less. The movie’s made (getting this one out of the way now) $302.9 million domestically thus far, and has made another $459 million worldwide, for a total of $762 million. Just so we can be clear, the movie’s budget was only $195 million. Plus marketing. They made at least $400 million on this movie. At least. Michael Bay’s got at least $50 million of that for himself. That’s just fucking incredible.

Finishing third was Horrible Bosses with $17.7 million. I said it could hold close to 20, but guessed 15 — we were right in the middle. It was practically immune from Potter, and has held incredibly well. Off a $35 million budget, it’s made $60 million domestically after two weekends. That means it’s been a tidy little hit. Or will be. Which, I’m not totally against. It was harmless. Not good, not bad. It’s fine.

Finishing fourth was Zookeeper, which — oh I’m so fucking happy this movie has bombed. It made $12.3 million, which, was a good hold, but, the film, after two weeks, has made $42.4 million domestically. Total, including worldwide, it has made $50 million. It’s budget was $80 million. Yeah — I’m so happy. It bombed. It can never made its money back in theaters. Ha ha. Fuck this movie. Moving on.

Finishing fifth was Cars 2, which made $8.4 million, bringing its domestic total to $165.4 million. It had a $200 million budget, and even though this film won’t recoup its budget domestically, like I always say, the money from this film is in the merchandising and not in the box office. This will sell so many toys it’s not even funny. Also, including its worldwide budget, the film’s made $287 million. So, technically, it’s not a loss. They did eke out a profit, and that’s all that matters. Pixar has money, they didn’t need this to make Toy Story money.

Finishing sixth was Winnie the Pooh, which I saw and loved, with $7.9 million. It’s not a lot, I’ll admit, but, this film is just so fucking magical. If you’re age five or under, or are in touch with that child inside of you, you will love this movie. It’s just so soothing. And only 70 minutes long. That’s all it is. The characters go around, just being. That’s all I need. And gorgeous 2D animation. It’s just breathtakingly beautiful, and makes me upset at what I haven’t gotten to see since this whole stupid computer generated animation took place. I really think Disney should stick to 2D animation, leave the computer films to Pixar, and leave it at that. Or at least, one hand drawn, one computer animated a year is okay by me. Be the old Disney. Anyone can make a shitty CG animated movie. Look at DreamWorks. They put out two shitty ones a year. They make money, but, they’re not very good.

Anyway, Pooh has made $14 million total, including worldwide, which, is half its budget, and that’s really all they need. They’ll get close to the $30 million they spent on it (I can’t imagine they spent much to market this at all), and once it’s out on video, they’ll get their money back. This was a small monetary hit that will pay dividends in class factor. This was a classy move by Disney, and I think this was a wonderful, wonderful film.

Finishing seventh was Bad Teacher, with another $5.2 million, bringing its domestic total to $88.5 million. Jesus. Its budget was only $20 million. They made some fucking bank on this one. I bet Cameron Diaz made some fucking bank on this one. I bet she cut her salary for a nice piece of the back end. She must have gotten paid for this. The film’s made a total of $134 million worldwide (including domestic), so, I bet they’re very happy with this one. I expect Bad Doctor, Bad Dentist, Bad Cab Driver and Bad Parking Lot Attendant to be released straight to DVD within the next two years.

And here’s what’s great about these weekends with one film making all the fucking money — after this, no film finished with more than $3 million. That’s just, wow. Anyway, let’s talk about some totals now. I haven’t done this in a while….

Harry Potter, because I haven’t mentioned it yet past domestic, has made another $312 million worldwide, for a total gross of $481.5 million. That’s after one weekend. Yeah. There are no words.

Larry Crowne, since it’s next on the overall list, has made a total of $31.7 million domestically, which, just passed its production budget. $30 million. So, eventually they’ll make their money back, depending on how much they spent to market it. Which — my guess is — a lot. But, worldwide, it’s made $40 million, so, that’s it. It didn’t succeed, and that’s what I needed. I really didn’t need lazy stars to succeed. Put in some effort, then you can succeed.

Next — Super 8 has made $122.3 million domestically, off a $50 million budget, which, right on. Good for them. It’s made another $54 million worldwide, so, it’s made its production budget back overseas, and has made a cool $100 million for itself and the studio. Well, minus prints and advertising. Still, even $80 million or $60 million is still fucking gravy. So it’s made $176 million in 5 weeks. Great job.

Here’s one I need to mention. Midnight in Paris has become Woody Allen’s top grossing movie of his career. It’s made $41.8 million domestically. Amazing, that that’s his highest grossing film. The next few on the list are Hannah and Her Sisters, Manhattan and Annie Hall. One of these things is not like other… Actually, I hated Manhattan and didn’t care for Hannah, so maybe this one will be enjoyable. I haven’t seen it. Still, it’s made a total of $75 million worldwide, which, given a $30 million budget, a Woody Allen movie’s made money for once. That must be satisfying.

Then, Bridesmaids, has made $161.3 million domestically in 9 weeks. The budget for this film was only $32 million. Adding on the $48 million it made overseas, it’s made $210 million in total gross. That — is fucking incredible. Good for them. Although, I kind of hate giving Judd Apatow more money, just because, I don’t think he’s made that many funny movies. Like, watching Bridesmaids, I know that projectile vomiting scene was his addition to the movie. And it just didn’t need it. But apparently America does, so, who cares what I think? Still, it was an original concept on a smaller budget, so, good for them.

Mr. Popper’s Penguins has made $61.5 million domestically. Which, given a $55 million budget, and an extra $27 million worldwide, giving it $87.6 million in total gross, I’m sure they’ll eventually make all their money back sooner rather than later. Which is fine. I’m sure it’s a harmless film. It didn’t need to fail. But I’m sure once ancillary market kicks in, they’ll break even if they haven’t already.

Green Lantern — anyone else just groan? I thought we were done with this piece of shit too — has made $112.8 million domestically, and another $33 million worldwide, giving it a total gross of $146 million, which, is just a bit outside of its $200 million production budget, not to mention the (I’m sure) $60+ million they spent to market this film. I’m glad. Because I normally don’t hate films — I hated this film. It might even make my Unforgivables list, purely because they thought they could put out something and assumed we would go see it. Fuck them. This movie blew. I’m so happy they failed, even though I really respect Warner Bros. But they failed through and through with this one. (Don’t worry, Dark Knight Rises will make these losses back in spades. And diamonds and clubs and hearts.)

Monte Carlo — that Best Picture frontrunner — has made $20.1 million domestically. It’s budget was $20 million. I’m sure you’ve all just collectively exhaled at the fact that this movie has made its production budget back in theaters. I, for one, can now sleep better tonight. And I know you all feel the same way. Let us all look up into the sky hopefully now, in the hopes that better things will soon be upon us. Godspeed Monte Carlo.

Speaking of people who don’t pick up on sarcasm and transitions that have nothing to do with what I’m about to talk about, X-Men: First Class has made $143.5 million domestically in six weeks. It’s made another $200 million worldwide, giving it a total gross of $344 million. Even though this movie didn’t recoup its $160 million production budget domestically, this movie was always gonna make all its money worldwide. I, for one, am satisfied with the outcome, because the movie itself was good, but it wasn’t quite great. I felt like it was the kind of film that, if it made too much money, the studio would get lazy and go the route of autopilot. (Also, how stupid was it they made Xavier paralyzed from a bullet? What the fuck?) Now, they know that not everyone went out to see it, so they’re on their toes, trying to make the next one the Dark Knight of the quasi-rebooted franchise. They really need to hit this next one out of the park. And I think they could. They can start reintroducing some mutants that people actually recognize. Anyway, decent film, I’m glad they made money, and even gladder they made a reasonable amount of money and not a shit ton.

Speaking of a shit ton of money, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides has made $237 million domestically, which, is less than its $250 million budget. But I think we all know — that don’t mean shit. Because, it’s total worldwide gross is $1 billion. It’s made $787 million overseas. From the four movies, Johnny Depp has, rightfully, since it’s all him that’s doing this, made over $300 (or is it 400?) million for himself. Wow. Anyway, #5 is due out in a couple of years, and, I, personally, am very excited. I’m sure this movie will not be one I revisit a lot (I’ll probably spend most of my time watching the first and third films), but I did have a lot of fun in theaters, and that’s really what matters for me. I hope they continue this franchise until Depp can’t do it anymore. I support this franchise.

The Tree of Life has made $33 million worldwide, which is barely over its production budget. And I for one like to see classy films actually make their money back. So good job, Terrence Malick. I haven’t seen the film yet, and I’m very upset about this, but don’t worry, I’ll see it by the end of the year.

The Hangover Part II — that unholy abortion — has made — what the fuck, America? (I should just call this report “What the fuck, America?” Actually, if anyone wants to partner up on producing Youtube version of this show, that’s totally what we’ll call it. A filmed version of this thing could be gold!) — $251.9 million domestically, off an $80 million budget. What. The. Fuck. It’s made another $310 million overseas for a un-be-fucking-lievable total gross of $562 million. I, personally, think, to appease the gods for this movie, we need to sacrifice some children. I think that’s what it’ll take. This is because True Grit made $170 million, isn’t it? This is the flip side? This is the person who lost his job, lost his wife, and killed himself and six strangers in a Denny’s because I stole that box of candy from the convenience store when I was six?

Kung Fu Panda II — which I swear was subtitled The Kaboom of Doom at some point — has made $160 million domestically. It had a $150 million budget. Which, I think that’s the goal for these films. At least, that’s the goal I place on them in my head.

I heard somebody say once (a guy who ran a studio, so, it must be reputable) that a movie needs to make 1.5x (or 2x, I forget) its production budget in order to simply break even. So I somehow equate that to, if a movie makes back its production budget domestically, then all the worldwide grosses will be profit. The advertising budget probably won’t matter at that point, since, movies generally make back that money on DVD, and, because, at this point, we’re dealing with movies with $150-200 million budgets. So, if it makes back its budget domestically, you know it’s making that much worldwide, in which case you know it’s making a profit.

So, Kung Fu 2, as I just called it right now for the first time, has made its budget back domestically. Which means, everything it makes overseas is pure profit, basically. And overseas, it’s made $422 million. For a total gross of $582 million. That means, even if they spent $120 million to market this movie, they made $300 million from it. Plus merchandise. Holy fuck, right?

Thor  since I think that’s how far we go back since I did all the total grosses, I think I hit the reset button at the beginning of the summer — has made $179.5 million domestically, which, off a budget $of 150 million — is fucking great. Because, overseas, it’s made $265 million, for a total gross of $444 million. Which means, if they spent $120 million to market this movie (which is possible. They tend to spend close to 100 to get tentpoles off the ground), this movie has made $175 million in pure profit. That’s incredible.

So, that’s all the total grosses. You can see why I only do this once in a while. I find it fascinating, but not everybody does. But since I do, we do it, because fuck everybody. This is my blog.

Anyway, onto the new releases…

The big film opening this week is Captain America, which, going back to the beginning of the year, was the one superhero movie I was most excited about. I said from the beginning that this was going to be the best of the bunch. We’ll see how — I mean if. Definitely didn’t mean to say how, because I’m not already 100% sure I’m going to be proven right — I’m proven correct on that statement by the end of the weekend. Guessing the box office on this film basically comes down to — will it outgross Harry Potter?

That’s seriously all it is. Because Harry, at a 50% drop, makes $80 million. So the question is, will this movie top that? Based on what I’m seeing — no it will not. They’re only estimating that this film makes $50-55 million this weekend. Which seems a bit on the low side, considering what other (shittier) superhero films have done this year. But I guess maybe people are superhero’d out by now, and this isn’t really a superhero that people know (otherwise they’d have made this movie years ago). Plus this seems like a film that’s gonna not do as well in its opening weekend, but hold amazingly well, just because it’s clearly a good film and I think it’ll generate a lot of positive word of mouth.

So, I guess $55 million sounds okay. I’m hoping for $60 million. But that’s just me personally. As for this and Potter, it should be kind of close, but I’m expecting Potter to take it. Whichever film wins #1 is irrelevant to me. They’re both quality.

The other big film opening this weekend is Friends with Benefits, which, based on the trailer I saw almost a year ago and the shitty version of this movie that came out in January with Natalie Portman and Ashton Kutcher, I am actually a bit excited for. I’m kind of hoping it’s good. It’s directed by the dude who made the wonderful Easy A last year, so, that’s something to give me hope.

As for it’s box office take — it’s an R-rated comedy, which, is the recipe for success this year for one — fucking Bad Teacher and Horrible Bosses both opened above $25 million, and this always looked better than both of those (and it won’t have to to much to actually be better than both of those) — plus, it has no competition. Harry Potter and Captain America have no conflicting audience with this whatsoever. This one is clearly for the ladies.

Just looking at the film and the competition, I’d go around $25 million on this one. It makes sense. Just take 25 and assume it’ll be within $3 million in either direction. $25 million is your standard number for films like this.

So, that’s it for the new releases. Onto the holdovers…

Harry Potter is of course the first film to mention, because it might actually win the weekend. Which, for a summer film to win the weekend two weeks in a row, is fucking amazing. Strangely, Transformers was given the second weekend to itself. Here, they just came right at Potter and are challenging it. I’m curious to see how this is gonna do.

Most estimates have this dropping at least 60%. General estimates have it making around $60 million. So, I guess, that’s what I’ll say too. Though I’m thinking like $62 million instead of $57 million. I think it’ll skew higher, just because some people might (might) go see it again. I don’t know. It just feels like higher is the way to go there.

The other holdover is Transformers, which, being that it has Potter and Captain America as direct competition, should not do very well at all. I’m figuring, at least a 50% drop, which is $10-11 million. Let’s just leave it at $11 million and call it a day.

Then, after that, Horrible Bosses has direct competition from Friends with Benefits, which should hurt it. I have to assume at best, a 45% drop, which is $9.7 million. A direct 50% drop is $8.9 million. So, if you guessed between $8-10 million here, skewing heavily toward $9 million, I’d say you had a really good chance to be very, very close to what this actually makes.

Then, Zookeeper, should fall some more, I hope. Maybe it’ll continue to hold. At this point it doesn’t matter. Maybe, at best, it’ll make like $7.5 million. That’s a 40% drop. So, don’t go higher than $8 million, probably go around $7 million. I guarantee you, you’ll be close. (Hoping for 6…)

Cars 2 should fall under $5 million, so, that shouldn’t matter. Maybe $5 million, but, it doesn’t really matter at this point. Then, also, Winnie the Pooh, I hope makes $5 million, but this seems like it’ll make $4 million and change. And…that’s it, really.

Since I wrote a lot, let’s do a list to end this, since, it’ll make it easier to look at next week for me.

How I think this is gonna go:

1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II — ~$62 million. (Maybe 59-60. Still, right around there.)

2) Captain America — $58 million (hoping an overestimate makes it make more money)

3) Friends with Benefits — $25 million (give or take a few in either direction)

4) Transformers: Dark of the Moon — $11 million (between 10 and 11 almost for certain. No lower than 9 at worst)

5) Horrible Bosses — $9.5 million (9-10. The more Friends with Benefits makes, the less this should make)

6) Zookeeper — ~$7 million (hoping for less. Don’t go less than 6 or higher than 8)

7) Cars 2 — <$5 million, probably high 4.

8) Winnie the Pooh — hoping for close to $5 million, probably like 4.2

9) Bad Teacher — $2.8 million. Does anyone really care past #5 anyway?

10) Uhh — Larry Crowne, probably. Maybe this makes $1.5 million. Maybe.

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