The Box Office Report – August 26-28

Last week, in Box Office…

It was worse than expected. And I love it.

The Help wins the weekend, as expected, with $20 million. Barely. I’m okay with this. I was hoping it would drop under 20, but, it barely made 20, so, who cares, really? It’ll make money, they’ll make more of these — whatever. At least it’s not another shitty superhero movie. The film’s made $71 million domestically off a $25 million budget. Good for them.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes finishes second, as expected, with $16.1 million. Slightly more than expected, but not much, mostly due to all the new films just failing miserably (ha ha). It’s made $133.6 million domestically, off a $93 million budget, so, knowing they spent a shit ton to market this, they probably haven’t broke even yet, but they will, and that’s cool. It’s made $122 million more worldwide, so they’re in the black here overall. Maybe we’ll wait until we have a good script for the next one though, huh, studio? That’s all I ask. Don’t fuck up the good will you got here. Pretty simple.

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World made $11.6 million this weekend, which is less than most people thought it would make, yet — totally cool. It seems the film is aimed at 7 year olds, with lots of fart jokes. So, let’s not get too crazy with box office here. Though it did only have a $27 million budget, so they’ll be fine.

Conan the Barbarian made $10 million. Good. I saw it. It blew. For those keeping track, that’s 1/9 of its budget. $90 million. They made it for $90 million. Probably spent about $50 million to market it. They made $10 million. Sorry, Lionsgate, you’ll have to put out another Tyler Perry movie to make up the difference.

The Smurfs made another $7.8 million. It’s made $120 million domestically off a $110 million budget, and $331 million total worldwide. Expect the sequel in two years.

Fright Night opened to $7.7 million. It had a $30 million budget. It’s slightly below expectations, but I wager they don’t need this to do particularly well. Whatever.

Final Destination 5 made $7.7 million. Never gonna have to mention this fucking thing again.

30 Minutes or Less made $6.4 million, and has passed its production budget. So, assuming they didn’t spend $30-60 million to market this (doubtful), they’ll be all right, regardless of its quality.

One Day opened to $5.1 million. That’s very good for the film, since it was only budgeted at $15 million.

Everything else made under $5 million. But let’s check in on some end of the summer totals…

Crazy, Stupid, Love., off a $50 million budget, has pulled in $69.4 million total worldwide, which makes it a modest little hit. Meh.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II has pulled in $366 million domestically, and a total of $1.26 billion worldwide. For those wondering if this film has made a profit — it’s unclear.

Cowboys & Aliens, a film with a $163 million budget, has made $89.5 million domestically, and $107.5 million total, which, is at least $100 million less than they needed to make. Quel dommage.

Captain America: The First Avenger has made $311.7 million worldwide off a $140 million budget. I think they’ll take that. Let’s hope the sequel doesn’t suck.

The Change-Up, off a $52 million budget, has made $32 million. I’m not entirely upset by that. I bet most of the budget was salaries, anyway.

Horrible Bosses — what the fuck is with this one? — made $157.6 million worldwide off a $35 million budget. Just — wow. It wasn’t that good. I mean, okay, $70 million, doable. 80-90, pushing it, but okay. But 150? What were other people watching?

Transformers: Dark of the Moon has made $1.1 billion dollars worldwide off a $195 million budget. It’s just under $350 million domestically. And the rich get richer, and frankly, I’m okay with that on this one, because Hollywood needed to see how one actually makes a 3D movie correctly. Good job, Bay.

Midnight in Paris has made $84 million off a $30 million budget. That’s just fucking incredible. I really need to see this thing to see if its any good. This must be the most accessible thing he’s ever made. Either that or people just really like Owen Wilson, which I just refuse to believe. Because if that’s true, the average intelligence of this country if really in the shitter.

Friends with Benefits has pulled in $68 million off a $35 million budget. Personally, I’d have liked to see this movie and Horrible Bosses switch box office totals, but I know that’s never going to happen, because it seems that most of the time, the less money a film makes, the better its quality is. (It took Scorsese thirty years to crack $100 million. Not to make comparisons, but, you see what we’re dealing with.)

Thor made $448 million worldwide off a $150 million budget. Yeah — there’ll be another one of these pretty soon. At least it’s not Green Lantern, is all I have to say.

Speaking of that piece of shit, Green Lantern, off a $200 million budget (and what I’m sure was upwards of $80 million in marketing) has made $194 million, total. And I’m satisfied by this, because it really was just a cinematic abortion.

Zookeeper has made $138 million worldwide off an $80 million budget. Don’t worry, half of that is overseas money, so a lot of this can be blamed on the stupid foreigners. In fact, most of it can be blamed on Germany and Mexico, and I’m sure we’ll all be happy to do so.

Cars 2 has made $500 million worldwide. I think that’ll cover that $200 million budget pretty well, don’t ya think? It has not made its budget back domestically, though, pointing to the fact that no one gives a shit about a creepy world inhabited by nothing but cars.

Mr. Popper’s Penguins made $162 million worldwide off a $55 million budget. 2/3 of that is off overseas money, as the film has only made $66 million domestically. Basically telling us — Jim Carrey can still pull people into the theater. Who knew?

Kung Fu Panda 2 has made $622 million worldwide off a $150 million budget. The rest of the world is much more interested in these films than we are, which makes sense, since — well they’re not really all that good. They’re okay, but — who cares, really? If you’re not Pixar, you’re pretty much just fooling yourself, nowadays.

Bridesmaids — holy fuck with this one — has made $272 million, off — ready for this — a $32.5 million budget. Fucking wow, right? I know. I didn’t think it was that funny, either. But wow, that’s a lot of money. Expect a shitty sequel that’s exactly like the original in two years. (You know what’s coming, with that transition.)

The Hangover Part II — I hope this movie dies — has made $581 million worldwide, which is $500 million above its production budget. And right now I’m making sure my handgun doesn’t have a jamming problem. What the fuck, America?

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides has made $1 billion worldwide. It was budgeted at $250 million, in case anyone cares. It didn’t even make that back domestically. Overseas really carried this one. Which means, another $70 million in Depp’s pocket and another three films at least. And I’m cool with that.

Winnie the Pooh has made $32 million off a $30 million budget. Which means they’ll make all the money back on this, which is fantastic. Because this film was magical.

X-Men: First Class has made $350 million worldwide ($145 million domestic) off a $160 million budget. I’m lukewarm about this. I think they need to make sure they put out a good product next time.

The Tree of Life has turned out a profit. Almost $40 million off a $32 million. That is fantastic news and means art isn’t dead. And by art, I mean, films like this.

Bad Teacher has made — how? — $197 million off a $20 million budget. Holy jumping fucking shitballs. I don’t know how they did this, but, more power to them. It wasn’t that great, but it was original, and I’ll take it.

And, Super 8 has made $234 million off a $50 million budget. Good for them.

That’ll do it for all the summer stuff — now I don’t have to mention most of these films ever again. See how that works?

Now, for the new releases…

The big film opening this week is Colombiana, and I refuse to believe this film makes more than $10 million. This is me writing that on Monday afternoon, by the way. I just refuse to believe it. Calling it right now, $10 million. Let’s see what they have to say on Thursday. (I’ll, section it off so you know what was written Monday and what was on Thursday.)

Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark is also opening this week. Written but not directed by Guillermo del Toro and starring Katie Homes — yeah, $8 million at best, I’m figuring, for this one. Not looking promising at all. This is the dreaded September month. Anything opening to more than $12 million is a blockbuster.

Our Idiot Brother — the film with the most promise of the new releases — is a film that, I’m sure, only has a $15 million budget (no more than 20), and probably doesn’t need a strong opening. And, when films have low budgets, usually they don’t do well opening weekend. So, my Monday guess on this is that they figure it’ll pull in around $6-7 million. Just a guess.

Honestly, The Help should win this weekend with around $15 million, Rise of the Planet of the Apes should finish second with around $10 million, but might lost out to Colombiana for second, and really only one film should finish with above $11 million. I’m excited. It’s the barren wasteland for box office. I love it.

(Now I’m gonna taper off and come back an let you know what everyone says on Thursday.)

– – – – – – – – – – –

Okay, it’s Thursday. Let’s see what the bullshit is…

To absolutely nobody’s surprise, everyone is saying The Help is gonna win the weekend with $15 million. Wow! It’s just like I said that three days ago.

However, whereas I assumed Columbiana was an easy second place, no one seems sure. Most people call it at $11 million (I love September. It’s so easy to guess). The reason it’s not a guaranteed second place is because…

Everyone’s Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark estimate is all over the place. I’ve seen as high as $12 million and as low as $8 million (and that’s not including the $8 million I said on Monday). Most estimates say between $10-12 million, which puts it in a battle for second place against Columbiana. Honestly, I really don’t give a shit what it does. I want the fim with the higher budget to fail more. That’s where I’m at. So, really, $10 million, $12 million, it’s meaningless to me.

Our Idiot Brother is also kind of all over the place, estimate-wise. Though the general consensus is somewhere between $8-10 million. Higher than I expected, but, given the cast, I have to assume this is halfway decent, so more money is probably better. I don’t know. It won’t go over 10. I don’t think it’ll even hit 10. But who knows?

Most people have Rise of the Planet of the Apes squarely within the $9-10 million range. So that puts it really anywhere between 2 and 4 on the final tally. It’s made its money, so it doesn’t matter what it does.

Spy Kids should fall to about $6 million and change. That seems almost guaranteed.

The Smurfs should hover around the $5 million mark, but I’m not sure if it’ll hit it. I don’t think it will.

Conan — humorously enough — should almost definitely not hit $5 million. I love that so much.

So here’s what we’re looking at:

1. The Help — ~$15 million

2. Probably Columbiana — ~$11 million

3. Probably Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark — ~$10 million (I don’t see it, but whatever)

4. Probably Rise of the Planet of the Apes — ~$9-10 million. (2-4 could be in any order, really.)

5. Our Idiot Brother — ~$6-8 million.

Only five films are going to finish above $5 million. Possibly six, but barely. I fucking love September. It’s so awful.

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