The Box Office Report – October 28-30

Last week, in Box Office…

What the fuck, America?

Paranormal Activity 3 — 3!!!! — makes $53.6 million. I have nothing to say here. Fuck you all.

Real Steel — the silver lining here — finished second with $10.8 million. That’s a 33% hold, which is really good. It’s currently at $66.7 million domestically, which is a bit low, but not bad. And it’s at $153.4 million worldwide, which is pretty good. Here’s wishing it continued success.

Footloose finished third with $10.4 million. That’s also a 33% hold and that’s also really great for it. It’s made $30 million in two weeks off a $24 million budget. I bet the studio is ecstatic with those numbers.

The Three Musketeers opened to a paltry — weak — awful — $8.7 million. Just, ouch. Milla Jovovich blasted (internet journalism word!) the studio this week for properly failing to market the film. But honestly, they probably didn’t want to sink money into a black hole. So I don’t really know who’s to blame. The film was fun. $8 million feels like a raw deal for this film. It’s better than that.

Nothing else hit $5 million. The Ides of March came close, with $4.8 million, but no cigar. It’s closing in on $30 million total domestically. That’s pretty good, so it’s not all bad.

Oh, and Johnny English Reborn also opened wide last weekend, but I didn’t mention it. Guess how much it earned? $3.8 million. I had a feeling no one knew about this one stateside. It made $100 million overseas, so that’s really where they made their money. I think they’ll be all right.

Oh, and just because – The Thing, only $14 million after two weeks. Mega ouch. And The Big Year, $6 million after two weeks. That’s $130 million (at least) in budgets that have earned back less than 10% after two weeks. Uh huh.

So, let’s look forward, because I did not like last week at all. New releases…

The big film opening this week is Puss in Boots. Early reviews seem to be pretty positive. I’m guessing that means this movie will be enjoyable but I will not care much for or against it. DreamWorks does not do sequels well.

Estimates have this around $40 million. That makes sense. Most have it somewhere between $40-45 million. And honestly, anything above like $35 million for the weekend feels too high to me, so I’m just gonna let it make its money, because whatever it makes or doesn’t make here, it’ll make triple that overseas. So whatever. Let it make its money. It’s gonna happen anyway. Why fight it?

In Time is also opening this weekend. This is the film I’m actually interested in, because it was written and directed by Andrew Niccol, who wrote The Truman Show, as well as one of my favorite films of the past decade, Lord of War, which he also directed. So he’s very capable, and a great writer. This sounds interesting, and I hope it’s good.

Estimates have been pretty uniform here — around $13-14 million. Okay. I, of course, hope for more, just because that means Puss makes less, but, whatever. I’m guessing this wasn’t budgeted at anything more than $50-60 million, so $15 million would be pretty solid for it. It’ll almost definitely be in the mid-10s. Timberlake isn’t a draw, and the women aren’t draws either.

Ah, The Rum Diary. Finally opening after two years on the shelf. Estimates here are around $8-9 million. Strange. I can’t see this going that high. I’d like it to, but this feels like something people have at $8 million because of Depp being in it and only because of that. I feel the subject matter puts this at ones of those $7 million at best films, and I wouldn’t be shocked if this finished at $5-6 million. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for it to his $9 million, but I just have a feeling that the numbers being thrown out there are only looking at Depp. His smaller films don’t open as well. I’m wary of this. Should be very enjoyable though. I’d imagine.

Anonymous is opening. But it’s not even in 500 theaters and I won’t mention it again. Apparently they realized it won’t make money and didn’t spend for the wide release or to market it. That’s good. Money saved.

Okay, so that’s it for the new releases. Pretty standard. Now for the holdovers…

Paranormal fuck Activity 3 will not hold well at all. This is a 60% drop at least. You’re looking at $22 million on the high end. Maybe $23 million. 24 is pushing it. $21-23 million almost certainly. That’s a standard drop for a film of this sort. The less said, the better. (Seriously America, I hate you right now.)

Real Steel should do a standard drop. Probably looking at around $6-7 million almost definitely. 8 would be nice, but I always hope for the best.

Footloose should also hit around $6-7 million. Might even overtake Real Steel by sheer fact that it’s newer, but maybe not. Either way, these two should be neck and neck.

Considering Musketeers finished $5 million below its estimates last week, I’d be shocked if that hit $5 million. It might come close, but I doubt it’ll hit it. I’m sure I’ll mention it though, because that’s another big budget film missing big.

So, yeah, that’s about it. Pretty obvious weekend, really. No surprises to be had whatsoever. Really easy.

Here’s how it’ll go:

1. Puss in Boots — ~$40-45 million. The exact number is meaningless. It’ll win the weekend by at least $20 million.

2. Paranormal Activity 3 — ~$21-23 million

3. In Time — ~13-14 million. Maybe $15 million, for a stronger than expected weekend. Still, mid-teens at best.

4. The Rum Diary — ~$8-9 million, according to everyone. But my gut is telling me this will be closer to $7 million. Maybe it still opens to #4, but I feel this will be in a tighter race with Real Steel and Footloose than people think.

5. Real Steel — ~$6-7 million

6. Footloose — ~6-7 million. 4-6 are somewhat interchangeable, depending on what you think will happen.

7. The Three Musketeers — ~4 million and change.

8. The Ides of March. Number doesn’t matter. I just want to show you I can do it.

9. Dolphin Tale.

10. Moneyball. Possibly flipped on 9-10, but I don’t give a shit.

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