The Box Office Report – November 18-20

Last week, in Box Office…

Immortals shocks the world, overperforming to the tune of $32.2 million. I bet even the people expecting high end grosses on that didn’t expect that much. I, for one, am glad that another terrible Adam Sandler movie did not win the weekend. That’s all I care about.

The only downside to Immortals winning was that it wasn’t — it wasn’t quite a great film. It was watchable, but it wasn’t that great. Add to that the new trailer for Tarsem’s new Snow White movie, Mirror Mirror — god that thing looks awful. Here’s a dude, great with visuals, terrible with story. But let’s focus on the positives here, and that’s…

Jack and Jill didn’t win the weekend! It still made $25 million, but honestly, who cares? You know the budget for it was like $80 million, so the less it makes, the better. Still, it’s one of the inalienable truths of movies — Adam Sandler will continue to put out shitty movies and America will continue to go and see them.

Finishing third was Puss in Boots, with $24.7 million. It almost made second place too. That’s amazing. It’s made $108 million after three weeks, and will likely pass its production budget (reported at $130 million) within the next ten days. It’s also made $50 million worldwide, so, I think they’re doing just fine with this. Expect the sequel to make about $500 million worldwide.

Tower Heist — I was fascinated to see how this did — dropped 46%, which is slightly better than average, but with the gross it had in its first weekend, the $12.8 million it made this weekend is not that good. It’s made $43.5 million after two weeks, and I bet the studio figured this would be an easy $100 million grosser for them. As it stands, it might not even reach its reported budget, which was $75 million. (No fucking way that was only $75 million. Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy alone made $22.5 million for it. You’re gonna tell me that film only cost $50 million aside from Bret Ratner’s (clearly $8-10 million) salary? Fuck you. I’m glad it failed. It wasn’t good enough to make $100 million.

J. Edgar opened to a fairly soft (at least, that’s what trades are calling it, but who cares what they say?) $11.3 million. I think that’s pretty good for a film opening in just under 2,000 theaters. Wait for it to get the Oscar nominations, it’ll make more.

A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas made $5.9 million in its second weekend. That’s a standard drop. $6 million was always the number there. It’s made $23.2 million after two weeks, which is just above its budget, so that’s exactly what it was supposed to do. A quick $20 million, in and out, lots more from the DVD and VOD markets. Good for them. This is how you make small films that turn profit.

Everything else was under $5 million. Let’s recap real quick, because I see some numbers down there that interest me.

In Time has only made $30 million off a $40 million budget. That’s a bit of a shame, but not totally awful. Paranormal Activity 3 has hit $100 million off a $5 million budget. I say again, fuck you, America. Footloose has made $48.8 million and has doubled its production budget. Great job, there. Very happy for them. Real Steel has made $81.6 million, which, is. I think I’ve done these other ones, so I’ll stop there.

Let’s get to the new releases…

Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part I comes out this week. Actually, the official title is The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn — Part 1. I love when films have to deal with both the semicolon and the dash. This was the subject of many jokes by me when they had to figure out what to do with Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol. I was like, “What’s an Impossible Ghost Protocol?” I also love how you can tell when the studio is trying to appeal to as many people as possible. When they use the number 1 instead of the roman numeral I, you can tell they’re trying to appeal to the idiots in middle America who don’t know roman numerals.

Anyway, we all know this film is gonna make fucking balloons. Most people expect it to be $150 million for the weekend (including midnight showings). Honestly, I don’t give a fuck. This is just like Harry Potter, except I don’t give a fuck. So it’ll make its money, and I’ll just watch it. I really don’t care what it makes. After a certain point, you just stop trying.

Happy Feet Two also opens this weekend. At least I’m slightly excited for this. I know it won’t be as good as the first one, but I’m sure it’ll be harmless. Most people are calling this somewhere between high $30 million and low $40 million. So let’s just call $40 million a base figure and see where it falls from there. You know it’s gonna finish #2, so let’s just call a base number and see which side of the coin the number falls.

Pretty simple for new releases. Very straightforward. Let’s get to the holdovers…

Immortals, I’m thinking, won’t hold so well. It’s the only R film for adults, but I think the adults won’t care to even go to the theaters, with all the kids and tweens out for the other two films. Sure, you know your theater will be empty, but you also have to deal with everyone outside and in the lobby. I don’t think they’ll come out for this.

Estimates have it dropping 60% and making $13 million. Sure. I really don’t care what this does, since my only interest in it was having it beat Adam Sandler. Now that I’ve seen it (and not loved it), I don’t need it to hold well. Also, given the first two films, I don’t really care to make guesses this week, since it’s all just specifics at this point. Everyone knows what’s gonna happen. It’s just a matter of how much, specifically, things are gonna make.

Puss in Boots, actually, despite the Happy Feet competition, should finish in third place, I think. It’s been holding really well, and, while there’s a chance this drops closer to $10-11 million, I think it’ll still do $13-14. Even if it drops 50%, which is a lot for animated films (though would make sense, given the competition), it still makes $12 million and change. And I think that puts it at around third place. If not, Immortals is third and this is fourth.

Jack and Jill — I hope this doesn’t hold at all. And how could it, really? Who will go and see this over all the other films that are out there? Most people assume $10-11 million here, and I think $12 million is a ceiling figure on this. I expect $11 million and change. Like 11.3, 11.5. Something like that. Which puts it in fifth place, and makes me a happy person.

J. Edgar, I think will actually hold pretty well. I’m thinking maybe a $7 million weekend and change. That should put it in 6th place, and ahead of…

Tower Heist. I expect this to not hold well at all, and struggle to hit $6 million. It probably will, but I don’t think it’ll be a high $6 million. That should put it below J. Edgar (adult films tend to hold pretty well) and in 7th place. Ha ha.

Everything else will be well below $5 million, and between this week and next week, we’re gonna completely change over the box office. This is my favorite weekend of the year, Thanksgiving. This is when I know all the good shit is gonna come (some of it coming next weekend).

Here’s how the weekend will go:

1. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn — Part 1 — a fuck ton, greater than $120 million and less than $160 million. Most say 150. I don’t give a fuck.

2. Happy Feet Two — $40 million (give or take a couple of million)

3. Immortals — $13-14 million

4. Puss in Boots (this might hit third, but I think the competition for it and lack of competition for Immortals will keep it here) — ~$12-13 million

5. Jack and Jill — $10-11 million

6. J. Edgar — ~$6-7 million

7. Tower Heist — ~$6 million

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