Golden Globes Nominations: The Hastily Thrown Together Version

For 364 1/2 days, the idea of Oscar nominations is a really exciting idea to me. I think about what might get in, what won’t get in, and then when they’re announced, what will win, what trends are there, how they fit into history — all of that. But, when you get to the day of, you have to face the fact — they announce them at 5:30 in the fucking morning!

This is my first Oscar season on the west coast. I’m used to the nominations being announced at 8:30. And even at 8:30, it was no different. (I remember in college, walking across the tundra of a frozen soccer field to a 9 am film class, holding my laptop, trying to watch them announce the nominations, two years in a row. The other two years — one I watched from home, and the other I slept through.) But, when I think of 5:30 in the morning, I think — crack of dawn, some daylight out, you’re sitting there, trying to move as little as possible, freezing, no matter what the weather is. It’s always cold at 5:30 in the morning. And you’re not conscious at all, you feel unkempt. And anything you do at that time is not going to be graceful or professional. If you’re going out somewhere, you’re not gonna be showered. You’re gonna throw on a sweatshirt or whatever you wore yesterday, put a hat on to cover the mess that is your bed head. You’re going out and doing whatever it is you need to do and then getting the fuck back inside where you can shower and be warm.

That’s what this is gonna be like. The Golden Globes nominations are being announced — right about now, in fact. I figured, since my only planned post was just talking about the nominations — why not do it in stages? I’ll post this article now, then later in the morning (once I’m awake. Because I’m not fucking waking up at 5:30), I’ll just post the nominations, see how close or off I was, list surprises, reactions, whatever. Call foul on The Help getting so many nominations/laugh if it gets none. Then, as scheduled, in the afternoon, I’ll post an analysis of them. What it means, who will probably win — that stuff. Mmmkay? Mmmkay. Mmmkay, sera, sera, even.

Back to the 5:30 am analogy — the point there was that, I’m not putting any effort into this. No embellishments, just gonna put this shit out. I won’t even be going over all the categories. Just the big ones, and maybe like three others. I just want to throw some guesses out there.

Some things to note:

This ultimately means nothing. Globes nominations, while partially a factor in knowing what will be nominated for Oscars, aren’t everything. There’s DGA, PGA, WGA, BAFTA — all of these are just as important. Plus all the guilds… this is somewhat important, but ultimately this is just what a group of 100 foreign journalists liked the best (or were bribed into voting for… Tobey Maguire). It’s ultimately meant to be a party. They invite all the cool people. That’s how Johnny Depp gets nominated for everything he does. They want the cool kids to show up. And also, what they pick also gets people to watch the screeners, which helps the odds of things being nominated for Oscars.

Okay, that was really my only note. This entire article is being written on the fly. Guerilla blogging. Like the old days, when I’d write shit up and post as soon as it was finished, then maybe go back and read for mistakes.

Let’s get going.

(P.S. I know the SAG Awards were announced yesterday, but honestly, I don’t give a fuck what they nominate at all. Half the shit they didn’t nominate was because they haven’t had time to see it yet. SAG is irrelevant to me until I see everyone else following suit with the same nominations.)

BEST PICTURE — DRAMA

The big category. I figure we’ll do it like this. I’ll list all the possibilities — the usual suspects, if you will — then narrow it down in my own way, then write what my guesses are. The talking cure, so to speak. Or rather, talking solution. Basically how I work my way through everything. Put it all on the table, start talking, magically find out I’ve eliminated everything that doesn’t need to be there.

Here are the usual suspects for this category:

  • A Dangerous Method
  • The Descendants
  • Drive
  • Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • The Ides of March
  • The Iron Lady
  • J. Edgar
  • Moneyball
  • Shame
  • Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse

To me, Hugo and The Help are more Musical/Comedy films, more so Hugo. I don’t know where it’s gonna go, so I guess we put it here. It’ll be on one of these lists, it’s just a matter of which. And honestly, if you want The Help to be drama, be my guest. That makes it even harder for it to get on. By all means, do that.

So, as for what’s there —

I have to assume The Descendants is a lock. And War Horse. And Hugo (if it’s on here. I’ll compensate later if it’s not). J. Edgar seems like a choice they’d make as well. It’s the most “Oscar” of the films, and the Globes, I feel, like to go with that. (Or maybe they just like international shit. I can’t tell. I’m too far down the rabbit hole to think broadly.)

So really it comes down to that last spot. The Globes have been known to have six or even seven pictures on their list (2007 had 7. Two of them were Denzel movies, neither really was necessary. But hey, the more the merrier), but I’m only gonna guess five, since – who knows?

I can tell you for a fact – Moneyball, probably no shot. Maybe, but – it’s baseball. Does the HFPA care about baseball? Also, Potter – no. Don’t see it. Shame might not be totally up their alley. Or it totally is. Acting nominations, if anything. Blue Valentine got two acting nominations, so why can’t this? A Dangerous Method – acting nomination, if anything. Iron Lady – I think J. Edgar is the only obvious choice they’d take. You know Meryl will be nominated and probably win, but I don’t see the film coming along for the ride. And Tree of Life – I just don’t see it happening. Wouldn’t shock me, but would mildly surprise me. Mostly because you know it’ll never win. At least another choice would make you think, “Shit, they might actually give it to that.”

To me, it comes down to, for that final spot: Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, The Ides of March, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.

The really obvious ones here are Extremely Loud, Dragon Tattoo and Tinker Tailor. In that order. The first one just seems like too big to ignore. They gave Best Picture to The Hours and nominated The Reader. They clearly like him. So I guess that has to be the choice.

So, these will be my guesses. I guess.

  • The Descendants
  • Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  • Hugo
  • J. Edgar
  • War Horse

(If Hugo isn’t on the list and goes Musical/Comedy then I put Dragon Tattoo on instead.)

Alt: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Dark Horses: The Help, The Ides of March, Moneyball

Surprises: Drive, The Tree of Life, Shame

“What the fuck?” selection: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Midnight in Paris, The Iron Lady

That just seems closest to what the Globes do. If anything’s coming off, I’d say it’s Extremely Loud (but the more I think about it, the more confortable it feels being on. And I haven’t even seen the fucking thing yet), and if anything’s going on — to be honest with you, I think it might be Ides of March. I’m thinking Clooney is their Depp this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Clooney nominated a bunch of times. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see The Help on there. But, let’s stick with that, since, honestly, I don’t care. The HFPA is one of those groups – no one knows what they’ll do. They nominated The Tourist. Burlesque won an award! So let’s not put too much effort into this.

The Oscars are still where the money’s at.

Oh, wait, they love Brad and Angie. That means Moneyball might actually be a lock there. See what happens when you write this shit on the fly the night before?

Then again, as long as they nominate just him, he’ll still show up, right?

Which actually brings us to… oh no, wait, fuck! They split Best Picture into two categories. This is so unprofessional. I love it. This is how I usually do things.

BEST PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

This feels slightly easier. Just because there aren’t too many films to choose from.

The suspects:

  • 50/50
  • The Artist
  • Bridesmaids
  • Crazy, Stupid, Love
  • Footloose
  • Larry Crowne
  • Midnight in Paris
  • The Muppets
  • My Week with Marilyn
  • We Bought a Zoo
  • Young Adult

And possibly Hugo. I’ll specify at the end what to do if they’re putting it here.

But, looking at that list — I see four locks already. The Artist, Midnight in Paris, Bridesmaids, My Week with Marilyn (I think). Those seem like 4 easy choices. Now, the fifth one — Young Adult? Is that a drama? Does that get left off? I don’t know what they’re gonna do. Hugo is an easy #5 if it’s on. That’s where that goes on my guesses, if they put it there. Just to take care of that now.

You can make a case for any one of the rest of those films. Larry Crowne sucked, but it’s star heavy. And they like that. But they could also just nominate either of them (or just her, which seems more likely) and still get them there. Or they could, you know, not nominate it. (Gasp!)

We Bought a Zoo hasn’t gotten any attention anywhere, so I feel like that won’t show up based on precedent.

Footloose is a musical, which they like to include. Maybe, but again, I doubt it. It can’t hang with the rest of the films in terms of stature or quality. I’d be shocked to see them put that on and leave off something else.

The Muppets might not be their cup of tea, even though, to me, it seems like an easy choice to put on. Why wouldn’t you put that on?

50/50 was really great, and seems like the kind of choice they’d normally love to add on.

Crazy, Stupid, Love just keeps appearing everywhere, and feels like the kind of film they’d include. (Again, it’s possible they have six films on this list, but I can’t assume that.)

What to do…

This would be so much easier if Bridesmaids were not nominated at all.

I think I know what to do.

My guesses:

  • 50/50
  • The Artist
  • Bridesmaids
  • Midnight in Paris
  • My Week with Marilyn

Hugo (instead of 50/50 if it goes here)

Alt: The Muppets, Young Adult

Dark Horses: Crazy Stupid Love, Footloose

Surprises: Larry Crowne, We Bought a Zoo (and a “what the fuck” as well, just because — why?)

The reason I went with Marilyn is because Michelle Williams seems like an easy winner in the Best Actress — Musical or Comedy category, and I can’t see her film not being nominated in that case. At least, if Joseph Gordon-Levitt is nominated, his film doesn’t need to come along as well. (It totally should, but awards is tricky business.) Also, Young Adult seems like an easy inclusion based on Jason Reitman’s track record, but I just can’t see where they’re gonna fit it in. (Again, Bridesmaids… seriously.)

Let’s just move on…

BEST ACTOR — DRAMA

The suspects:

  • George Clooney, The Descendants
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
  • Michael Fassbender, Shame or A Dangerous Method
  • Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March or Drive
  • Woody Harrelson, Rampart
  • Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
  • Brad Pitt, Moneyball

The lineup is small, but stacked. Not to mention — pretty easy to guess, too.

My guesses:

  • George Clooney, The Descendants
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
  • Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
  • Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
  • Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Alt: Fassbender, Harrelson (obviously)

Dark Horses: Other people. Honestly, I don’t really seeing it be too far outside this list. Maybe if they love Dragon Tattoo, Daniel Craig gets on, but honestly, that’s the Rooney Mara show there. Based on these names — I think this will be close to it. (Oh, Michael Shannon could come out of nowhere, but I don’t see it happening. Also that Spanish dude who got the SAG nomination. Dark horse, but doubtful. The Globes like sexy.)

Clooney, Leo and Pitt seem like locks. The first too are definites. Pitt I say is as well because you know they want him and Angie to show up. Plus, Clooney and Pitt at the same awards show? Yeah, they want that. (They might squeeze Damon in Musical or Comedy to make the trio work.) Oldman, I assume, is gonna get some love. Though, honestly, his big push will come from BAFTA, so he’s not a definite lock. I’d say he’s close, though.

And Gosling — that’s just a hunch, based on him being the new cool guy (and them nominating him last year for Blue Valentine) in town. Harrelson is more of a boring choice to them, I feel. Gosling is too sexy to pass up. (They chose him over Jeff Bridges last year. No way they choose any older person over him. I say he’s a lock.) Fassbender could get on, but I don’t think he’s a lock. This seems like the list, to me. If I had to guess which category I’d get 5/5, this would be the one.

BEST ACTOR — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

This is a real short list, isn’t it? I’m gonna pad it a bit with people I know they’ve gone to before.

  • Rusell Brand, Arthur (trust me, they can do this)
  • Steve Carell, Crazy, Stupid, Love
  • Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides or The Rum Diary
  • Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
  • Jean Dujardin, The Artist
  • Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo
  • Paul Giamatti, Win Win
  • Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
  • Tom Hanks, Larry Crowne (Don’t fucking rule it out. Think in terms of people they want there and not performances. This can happen. It’s a very real possibility.)
  • Ewan McGregor, Beginners
  • Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

I only see one real lock here. (People say the kid from Hugo could get nominated, but that would surprise the hell out of me.)

It’s really a matter of which guys they want to put on.

I see a few close locks. Fuck it, let’s just compile a list and rationalize later.

  • Johnny Depp, The Rum Diary
  • Jean Dujardin, The Artist
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
  • Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo
  • Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

Okay, Dujardin is the only lock. Wilson is a close lock. Levitt, I feel, has all the right factors to make him a solid guess. Damon, I’m going with based solely on the fact that they’ll want him to show up and hang out with Pitt and Clooney. And Depp — if they nominated him for The Tourist (and Alice in Wonderland!), they’ll nominate him for anything. It’s either that or Pirates. I say they go with that.

Downey is always a threat, so he’s an alternate. Hanks doesn’t really need to get on. Carell and Giamatti, they’d like, but I feel they’ll give Carell an Office nod, and Giamatti — he won last year, and there are sexier choices. I’d consider him a big surprise. McGregor — easy possibility, but honestly, dark horse at best. I’m banking on the fact that they’re gonna want the cool guys to show up. So really, I only see Downey being the real choice to crack that list over anyone else.

BEST ACTRESS — DRAMA

The suspects:

  • Ellen Barkin, Another Happy Day
  • Viola Davis, The Help
  • Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
  • Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
  • Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
  • Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Carey Mulligan, Shame
  • Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
  • Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
  • Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Damn.

This race always looked like it was Meryl and Michelle, but I didn’t expect it to be so weak. This is strong for the Oscar (relatively. At least for a category, not a win), but here — wow.

Streep will win this. She has absolutely no competition whatsoever.

Guesses:

  • Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
  • Viola Davis, The Help
  • Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
  • Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Alt: Swinton, Mulligan

Dark Horses: Olsen, Barkin

Shocker: Jones

I went with Keira over Carey because — I don’t know. It might be a toss-up between those two. I just feel like Shame is too polarizing to get enough support. They’re either gonna love it or hate it. At least Keira — she can get a sole nomination.

Mara is an all-or-nothing bet. That film’s either gonna get lots of nominations or none. She’s the best bet of any of them, though, so I’ll stick with it.

I think the Davis and Close nominations are terribly weak, but they’re actually the closest things to locks there are outside of Meryl. So I’m guessing them, but — I don’t think they should be there.

I also went against Swinton because they ignored her in ’09 with I Am Love, even though everyone said she’s be an easy nominee. I feel the same will happen here.

(Also, Melancholia? No, right? That time passed?)

BEST ACTRESS — MUSICAL/COMEDY

Boy, this sucks.

Suspects:

  • Berenice Bejo, The Artist
  • Scarlett Johansson, We Bought a Zoo
  • Mila Kunis, Friends with Benefits
  • Julianne Moore, Crazy, Stupid, Love
  • Natalie Portman, No Strings Attached (Trust me, you don’t want to not mention it and see it happen. It’s awful, but possible.)
  • Julia Roberts, Larry Crowne
  • Emma Stone, Crazy, Stupid, Love or The Help
  • Charlize Theron, Young Adult
  • Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
  • Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Seems easy enough, right? Michelle, Wiig, Julia, Charlize. Good performances, popular film, woman they love. Who is #5? My guess is Emma or Julianne. Has to be, right?

Oh wait, I forgot Berenice. She should be nominated. Might be snubbed, might go Supporting. Let’s put her here. Take off Emma. Or Julia. Shit. What do I do? Fuck it. We’re taking off Julia, and hoping they go classy.

  • Bernice Bejo, The Artist
  • Emma Stone, The Help
  • Charlize Theron, Young Adult
  • Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
  • Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Probable: Julia Roberts (if Bejo goes Supporting… which she should, for best Oscar chances. Oh man, what if she won Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars? Let’s do that. Let’s vote for that.)

Changing it after the fact. Put Julia on, take Bejo off. I won’t edit it so you don’t know the difference, since, after all, isn’t it better that you see the creative (is this creative?) process in action?

Alt: Julianne Moore, Mila Kunis

Maybe even the chick from Footloose. Who the fuck knows what the HFPA does?

You know Michelle is winning this anyway.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Suspects:

  • Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
  • Albert Brooks, Drive
  • George Clooney, The Ides of March
  • Jonah Hill, Moneyball
  • Ben Kingsley, Hugo
  • Nick Nolte, Warrior
  • Christopher Plummer, Beginners
  • Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
  • Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

 This one is ripe for some random person getting in. I don’t even know what to do. I have four safe choices, but #5? Honestly, the best chance of anyone there is Clooney. Tough as shit. It comes down to what film they liked best. Knowing them, they’ll do some shit like nominate Andy Serkis for Rise of the Planet of the Apes. You really don’t know with these fuckers. They’re like your crazy friend with the drug habit. Viggo Mortensen for A Dangerous Method? Someone in Tinker, Tailor? Oh, wait, never mind. I remember who I forgot. I know exactly what they’re gonna do.

Guesses:

  • Albert Brooks, Drive
  • Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
  • Ben Kingsley, Hugo
  • Christoper Plummer, Beginners
  • Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredible Close

Alt: Clooney, Branagh.

Dark Horses: Oswalt, Hill

Surprise/Shocker: Nolte

Anyone else? I don’t think so. I can’t foresee anyone.

Brooks is the most vulnerable. It depends on how much they like Drive.

Also, forgot about Armie. You know they’re gonna love J. Edgar, and seeing as how they nominated Mila Kunis last year, I think they like young, up-and-comers. I say Armie gets on.

Too late to suggest Alan Rickman as Snape, for all 7 movies? (How fucking brilliant will I sound if that one comes in?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The suspects:

  • Berenice Bejo, The Artist
  • Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  • Jessica Chastain, The Help, The Tree of Life, Take Shelter
  • Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
  • Octavia Spencer, The Help
  • Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Are there more? I’m not seeing any more? Oh, wait…

  • Judi Dench, J. Edgar
  • Carey Mulligan, Drive (or if they want to put Shame here)

This still seems really easy to guess.

There are three things that need to happen come Oscar night for me to be happy. Two for certain, one to make me really happy.

1) Berenice Bejo needs to get nominated for The Artist. Lead, Supporting, I don’t care.

2) Shailene Woodley is nominated. This is non-negotiable.

3) Jessica Chastain is nominated somewhere, for the year she had. I’d prefer Take Shelter, but I’ll take whatever I can get.

Okay, now…

Guesses:

  • Berenice Bejo, The Artist
  • Jessica Chastain, The Help or The Tree of Life (seems to be more up their alley)
  • Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
  • Octavia Spencer, The Help
  • Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Alt: Bullock, Mulligan or Dench (in that order)

Those seem like the names that are getting floated the most (or at all). Bullock seems to be a much better (read: appropriate) choice than McCarthy or Spencer. Just sayin’. And this is coming from someone who hasn’t seen the film yet, and vehemently opposed her winning her Oscar every step of the way.

BEST DIRECTOR

Here’s where it gets fun.

The suspects:

  • Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
  • Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
  • George Clooney, The Ides of March
  • Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  • Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
  • David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
  • Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
  • Steve McQueen, Shame
  • Bennett Miller, Moneyball
  • Alexander Payne, The Descendants
  • Nicolas Winding Riefn, Drive
  • Martin Scorsese, Hugo
  • Steven Spielberg, War Horse

 This category actually makes me put a couple of nominees in perspective. I notice, if I can’t see a director being nominated for their film, what possibility does that leave of the film being nominated? That is to say – I don’t think Clooney should be nominated for Best Director, yet, I know they love the film. If they nominate it, they’d have to leave him off. Then again, The Artist will be in Musical/Comedy, so that actually makes up the spot. So I guess it works out. Let’s see if we can make this easier.

Eastwood, Scorsese, Spielberg and Payne seem like locks. And Hanazavicius seems like a good choice. That’s five. So, actually, that’s pretty easy.

Daldry and Fincher are clear spoilers. That actually went by a lot quicker than I thought. Let’s just write it up now.

Guesses:

  • Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
  • Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
  • Alexander Payne, The Descendants
  • Martin Scorsese, Hugo
  • Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Alt: Daldry, Fincher

Dark Horses: Clooney, Malick

Shockers: Alfredson, Miller

‘What the fuck’ nominees: Allen

And to be honest with you, the person who seems shakiest on that list? Spielberg. (Then Eastwood. But honestly — Spielberg might not be on there.)

And whichever film they like better, Daldry or Fincher’s, will get the spot, if Spielberg or Eastwood is off. (Then again, Fincher won last year…)

If Allen gets on here, I’d be fucking shocked! Shocked!

And if Riefn gets on here, that means they really loved Drive. And we’d see it coming, since it would get a lot of nominations down the line.

BEST SCREENPLAY

They don’t separate Original from Adapted.

I’m just gonna guess.

  • The Artist
  • The Descendants
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Midnight in Paris
  • War Horse

Alt: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Moneyball

Dark Horses: The Help (not so dark, but… actually, not gonna touch that one), Hugo, J. Edgar

Surprises: Pretty much anything else. Especially Bridesmaids.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Guesses (like I have any idea):

  • The Artist
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • J. Edgar
  • War Horse

I’m basing this solely 0n — The Artist is entirely dependent on music. Dragon Tattoo — Reznor won last year. Hugo — light and joyous. War Horse — John Williams. How could they not, right? And I read somewhere that apparently Clint does really well here, with the music. (I remember he got nominated for Grace is Gone out of nowhere.)

Alternates are Potter, and uhh — Drive? Maybe Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close?

Wow, it’s been a really bad year for film music. Which is weird, since last year was awesome. So was 2009, come to think of it…

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

I honestly have no idea. I just assume The Muppets will have at least one song here or at the Oscars. And that’s really all I care about. Because I haven’t even heard so much as a shortlist yet.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Almost forgot about this. Interested to see what happens here.

Guesses…

No bullet points, since I’m doing this from memory.

The Adventures of Tintin

Arthur Christmas (international. They like that.)

Cars 2

Rango (Depp)

Ooh…what’s #5? Can it be Winnie the Pooh?

Is it Rio? Puss in Boots? Kung Fu Panda?

Interesting. Let’s say… Panda. Even though I’m hoping for Pooh. Panda at least is international.

That’s it. I don’t want to do more. Let’s just see what happens.

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