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The Golden Globes Nominations: An Analysis

Okay. We’ve covered the nominations, and before that, my guesses, so it’s time to see what this means for the Oscar season.

Let’s not waste time, let’s get into it right now. Fuck the foreplay.

BEST PICTURE — DRAMA

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

The Ides of March

Moneyball

War Horse

This one’s not too helpful in knowing what’ll happen. The Ides of March is a popularity choice, and The Help is gonna need a lot of high votes in order to make it on that sliding scale thing. Really, what we learned here is that The Descendants and Hugo are near locks to make it onto the Best Picture list, as is War Horse. Moneyball is a strong contender, and will likely make it, but I don’t know if this is a strong gauge. This feels like more of a Pitt nomination than a film nomination.

What we really need to take out of this is what it means for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. We’ve seen these films get short-changed from some groups thus far because they announced so early that no one really had a chance to see the films. These films need especially strong showings at the guilds and at BAFTA in order to rebound.

So far, though, the Best Picture locks are looking like The Descendants, Hugo, War Horse and The Artist. It’s too early to call a favorite (but based on this, you’d have to look at The Descendants).

As for what will win here — I kind of like The Descendants, actually. Right now. Maybe it’s part of the Clooney love, but I think it has a really strong chance. Typically, I’d just say War Horse and call it a day, but — they didn’t even nominate Spielberg. That’s interesting to me. (Maybe it’s because they gave him a Cecil B. DeMille award? Maybe because he won three times? Because they really like Woody Allen and George Clooney?)

I feel like Descendants and War Horse are the favorites. If The Help wins this, I swear I will seriously disown the Globes as an awards show.

BEST PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

The Artist

Bridesmaids

50/50

Midnight in Paris

My Week with Marilyn

This category is The Artist’s to lose. If it doesn’t win here — that’s bad. I know they love Woody, but The Artist is the film to beat. This is a possible favorite for Best Picture. It might not win, but it really needs this.

50/50 is lucky to be nominated, and if (big if) it’s gonna get anything, it’ll be Levitt. My Week with Marilyn will get the Williams win and she’ll be going to the Oscars to face Meryl. This is really between The Artist and Midnight in Paris. They really like Woody, so I wouldn’t put too much into an upset here, but — really, it’s The Artist.

As for the Oscars — the sliding scale hurts all of these films but The Artist. If there were a set ten nominees, then Midnight in Paris would be more of a solid contender. But it’s just too difficult to guess how voting’s gonna go.

BEST ACTOR — DRAMA

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Michael Fassbender, Shame

Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Honestly, replace Gosling with Gary Oldman, and you might be looking at your Oscar list. (Of course, Pitt would be replaced by Dujardin in that scenario.)

I can’t see George Clooney not winning this at all. Did you see how many times they nominated him? Plus, with no Oldman, this is his category to lose. He gave the best performance of anyone on this list (that I’ve seen. Still need to see Fassbender, but I know he has no shot at winning even without). He’ll win.

BEST ACTOR — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Brendan Gleeson, The Guard

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50

Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love

Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

This is Dujardin’s to lose. He’s also the only one here with any shot at an Oscar nomination. This is simple and straightforward. It’s all him.

BEST ACTRESS — DRAMA

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Meryl all the way. She should win this in a landslide. I still say the Oscar is between her and Michelle Williams, sight unseen with both of those performances. If anyone else is winning here, it’s Rooney or Tilda, and I don’t think they give it to Rooney.

As for the Oscars, I say the list will come from these five plus Michelle Williams. The two that seem most likely to be left off the Oscar list are Tilda and Rooney. And again, I say Tilda is more likely to make it on, since she’s done more and has an Oscar already. This is just speculation, but that’s what I see.

Personally, I’d not nominate Viola Davis at all, but her and Close seem like locks based on precursors so far. So I have to assume based on what I’ve seen they’ll make it on.

BEST ACTRESS — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Jodie Foster, Carnage

Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Kate Winslet, Carnage

This is Michelle’s to lose. And she’s really the only one with a shot to get the Oscar nod. If Charlize gets in, then she knocks off one of the two nominees I think shouldn’t be there. Which I’d be cool with.

This is also a straightforward category. Michelle vs. Meryl. This is what it’ll come down to.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

This is a tough one. Who do you go with here? If it were the Oscars, I’d say Plummer, just because they like their veterans. But the Globes are all about up-and-comers.

Mortensen I don’t think gets it because — he wasn’t really that great. If he wins either, it’s because they want to give him an award. Hill is along for the ride. I don’t see him winning unless they really like him. He feels like the Mila Kunis nod. He comes along with Brad the way she came along with Natalie. Branagh is cool, but they’d need to really like the film to give it to him. I don’t see that happening.

So I guess that makes Brooks the winner here? I really don’t know. I say it’s Brooks vs. Plummer. Has to be.

As for the Oscars — I don’t know. Max von Sydow carries a lot of weight with the Academy. I say, at this point, take off Jonah Hill and put on von Sydow, and that’s your Oscar list. Patton Oswalt, I think, is too new for them. These five would be classy choices that everyone likes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

This category will either be very telling, or very not.

I’ll tell you right now — Janet McTeer is a filler nominee. And if anyone’s winning from The Help, it’s Octavia Spencer. So, if she wins, that, to me, doesn’t say too much. However, if Woodley or Bejo win — that says a lot. I’m really interested in seeing how this turns out.

I don’t see too many other potential nominees coming out of the woodwork, so I think the Oscar list could be these five. The McTeer spot could be filled by someone else — a veteran or someone else like Carey Mulligan. But I think this will be close to what it’ll be, just because this category is so weak this year.

BEST DIRECTOR

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

George Clooney, The Ides of March

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

They love Marty, they love Woody. Will they give it to either? Usually Best Director goes along with Best Picture. So, to me, that makes Hazanavicius and Payne the easy favorites. They are known for just going with actors anyway, so this could just become the George Clooney cocksucking extravaganza and they could just give it to him. (This is an organization that gave Barbra Streisand Best Director for Yentl. This is not outside the realm of possibility.) But to me, since The Artist and The Descendants seem like the likely two films to win both Best Pictures (the Spielberg snub here, which might be due to them having to trim it to 5 nominees (after all, there are only 100 members voting on this) tells me Descendants is the favorite), those are the two favorites.

As for the Oscars — Hazanavicius and Scorsese and Spielberg and Payne seem like locks. The other one — who knows? Could be Woody, could be someone else. Daldry has been nominated for Best Director every time he’s made a film. He’s always a threat. The Academy is not the HFPA. Also, Fincher. Also a threat. Pay attention to this, the DGA will be important.

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Artist

The Descendants

The Ides of March

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

This also will be an important category. I say The Descendants takes this. The Artist doesn’t need to win Screenplay. If it does, the sweep might be in. Descendants seems like the easy choice for them. This is something I can’t even begin to guess for the Oscars, just because only two of these are original screenplays and three are adapted. So we’ll just pick and leave it at that.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Adventures of Tintin

Arthur Christmas

Cars 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

Tintin. What are you, high?

All of these films got shortlisted. Only Tintin and Cars seem like locks. The rest are all jockeying for position in a very crowded field (which I talked about here).

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Artist

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

War Horse

W.E.

Any one of the top four should take it. If they give it to #5, it’s because they want to give it to Madonna, and they fixed it. Otherwise, I’d say The Artist and maybe War Horse are the favorites. Dragon Tattoo has potential, but Reznor won last year. I say it’s the other two.

For the Oscars — who knows? They do weird shit with the music branch. I don’t trust them to make good decisions at all.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Lay Your Head Down,” Albert Nobbs

“Hello Hello,” Gnomeo and Juliet

“The Living Proof,” The Help

“The Keeper,” Machine Gun Preacher

“Masterpiece,” W.E.

Honestly — knowing how they do, I say this is either Madonna or Elton John. Since Gaga also was involved with the song, I’m gonna take Gnomeo. This should have very little to do with the Oscars, just because The Muppets should be all over that.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Flowers of War (China)

In the Land of Blood and Honey (USA)

The Kid with a Bike (Belgium)

A Separation (Iran)

The Skin I Live In (Spain)

This will have very little to do with the Oscar list, and honestly, watch them give it to Angie, even though I’ve heard not good things about her film. I really don’t care about this at all, though.

– – – – – – – – – –

That’s it, really.

Based on this and the SAG Awards, a few things become clear, but the PGA and DGA will be the real cement into this. I’ll be sure to tell you about those. For now, let’s just wait and see how much Ricky Gervais is gonna do at this ceremony.

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