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The Box Office Report: January 6-8

Last week, in Box Office…

Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol won the weekend (in its third weekend. Remember, the first one was a limited one) with $29.4 million. That is a 0.5% drop. Don’t worry, this isn’t surprising. Everything else did plus business. I won’t tell you how much it’s up to, because in 4 days time (that be Tuesday), an article will go up detailing what every film that came out this year (for the most part) made. You’ll see what I mean. Just know that this won, and it’s doing really, really well.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows finished second, with $20.9 million. This is also doing well. Hollywood seemed to freak out about these films underperforming, and here they are — doing quite well. Both of them pretty much have their budgets back after three weeks.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked finished third, with $16.4 million. It is nearing $100 million, so expect a sequel in two years.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — the film with which I have most interest in seeing succeed — finished fourth, with $14.8 million. This is better than last week, and I suspect a film like this will have tremendous legs, since it’s one older audiences will tell other older audience members to go see. Telling them all about the tattoo scene while their kids are doing karate. It’s doing pretty well after two weeks. Everything you heard about this film underperforming is bullshit.

War Horse finished fifth with $14.4 million. It is also doing quite well after two weeks.

We Bought a Zoo was sixth, with $13.2 million. It’s doing insanely well, even though no one is talking about it. It’ll have its budget back by next weekend.

The Adventures of Tintin was in seventh, with $11.4 million. It’s doing pretty decently, considering 80% of its audience was going to be overseas.

New Year’s Eve was eighth, with $6.3 million. It doesn’t look like it’ll hit its budget, and should probably be considered a disappointment. Creatively — it’s exactly what it was expected to be.

The Darkest Hour was ninth, because I want to mention it. It made $4.2 million. Not terrible, not great. Not wholly awful as a film, either. But also not particularly great.

And since we’re here, The Descendants made $3.4 million in tenth place.

All right then, let’s close the book out on 2011, and start up again with these pieces of shit that start 2012…

New releases…

The Devil Inside is the only major film opening this weekend, which pretty much gives the weekend to Mission: Impossible. I find it funny that the film will be #1 at the box office in its 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekends.

But back to the lecture at hand. Perfection is pefected, so Imma let ’em understand. The Devil Inside is the only major film opening, and to be completely objective about it — it looks like a huge piece of shit. Remember The Rite? Well, if this makes money, you have only yourselves to blame, America.

People have no idea what to do with this. Apparently they’ve been marketing the shit out of this, so people think this has potential to do crazy business. I’ve seen estimates as low as $13 million and as high as $23 million. Generally, these things do have strong opening weekends. The Rite did about $15 million. I’d say, without any marketing (which — remember, this is $30-40 million to make an extra $8-9 million opening weekend), this does low teens. With the marketing bump (because I have no idea how heavily they’ve been pushing this), this could do closer to $20 million.

Do I believe it’ll do over $20 million? Ehh… not quite. It is January, and it is early, and there are a lot of holdovers. I wouldn’t be shocked though, if it did. They only spent $1 million to make it, and I guess they figure that gives them more money to spend on advertisements. (It’s like, “Well, we were gonna spend $20 million and then $30 million to advertise…so I guess now we can just spend $45 million to advertise.” And it’s like, “No, that’s not…” and you just throw up your hands.) I’d really only blame the audience for going just because the studio bombarded you with advertisements. Though, I will say — hasn’t this “documentary horror” thing run its course? Does anyone give a shit about this stuff except hardcore fans of the genre?

Also (and I’m crazy excited about this), Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is expanding to almost 900 theaters. If you have a chance to see this one — take it. It’s such a great movie. It’s the kind of film — it’s almost like if the Tommy Lee Jones portion of No Country for Old Men were a spy thriller. It’s so slow and meditative. And that actually helps them in key scenes to build tension, because you don’t know what the fuck is gonna happen (unless you saw the Alec Guinness mini-series). It’s really terrific. This deserves lots of money.

Holdovers…

Mission: Impossible should win the weekend, in a just world. (Well, not just, but comparatively.) Most people assume this’ll do $16 million. That makes sense. Slightly less than a 50% drop. It should be enough to win the weekend based on my estimations. It’s pretty much this and Devil Inside for #1.

Sherlock Holmes will probably have a decent drop, and do somewhere between $10-12 million. That seems pretty standard.

Alvin and the Chipmunks, being the only kids film out there (unless we’re counting The Iron Lady, of course), will probably have a decent hold, make around $10 million.

War Horse — I still say this can hold well. Estimates have this around $8-9 million. That seems standard. It’ll probably be around there, but — I think this can go higher? Will it? Dunno. Of the holdovers, I think this has the best chance.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — I hope this holds well. I really do. And I think it will. I hope at least $10 million. No estimates. I hope at least $10 million. The higher, the better.

We Bought a Zoo — I think this does around $8 million. I think it’ll hold well. It did strong business all week, as did most of these holdovers.

Tintin — Meh. $6 million?

I got nothing for ranking the top ten. I just listed the top 9 films right there. (Tinker Tailor being #9.) I don’t really care what #10 is. This isn’t a week we read about. This is one where people should go out and see shit (that isn’t Devil Inside. Come on, people).

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