Oscars 2011 Update: Directors Guild Nominations

Now this — this is interesting.

Big day today. Next biggest thing to predicting the Oscars to the PGA nominations/winners are the DGA nominations/winners. When the DGA nominates directors, you can be damn sure Oscar will nominate at least four of them (unless the fifth director is Christopher Nolan).

So without any ado, here are the Directors Guild nominees for Best Director:

  • Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
  • David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
  • Alexander Payne, The Descendants
  • Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Wow.

I think that was everybody’s reaction to this list. Not so much the inclusion of Allen, since, every time he makes a halfway decent movie (which has been rare since 1994), he’s definitely in the running for a nomination. The real surprise is Fincher. I think everyone assumed Spielberg was going to get on because of his stature. But he didn’t. That surprised the shit out of me.

So, these pretty much become your favorites for the Oscars.

However…

The DGA and Oscar lists don’t always match up. So it’s not a guarantee. But what it does tell us are two things:

First: Martin Scorsese, Michel Hazanavicius and Alexander Payne are locks. They will be on the Oscar list.

So really it comes down to two final nominees. Fincher and Allen are strong contenders. But we also have Steven Spielberg and Terrence Malick in there. But it seems like Tree of Life doesn’t have a lot of heat outside a Best Picture nomination an some techs. Bennett Miller (previously nominated by DGA and Oscar for Capote) also has some potential for Moneyball. Other people think the dude from The Help has a shot, but I can’t see that happening with such huge names on the list. Plus this DGA list all but takes him out of it.

Oh, and the other thing it tells us — War Horse might not actually be the strong favorite we think it is. I think prevailing thoughts around the Oscar-followers community was: a black and white silent film, or the classy adaptation by the big name director that is right up the Oscars’ alley? And everyone was like, “Of course they’re gonna go with War Horse.” But the Spielberg miss here makes it not so much of a lock. Which might also mean The Artist might actually win Best Picture. This might actually be a legitimate possibility.

I’m not gonna let myself get too excited, but it’s looking like it could happen. The real key would be to see it win both the PGA and DGA. If he wins Best Director, you know that’ll happen, since they’ve been right all but 6 times, and PGA, I forget the specific numbers (I’ll look them up by the time they announce those), but they’re also really good at predicting Best Picture. So, if it happens there, then it becomes a really legitimate possibility.

Something to watch for. But until then, this is pretty exciting to see Fincher get on. He totally deserves it.

One response

  1. Pingback: Lady Luck Productions » Oscars 2011 Update: Directors Guild Nominations « B+ Movie Blog

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