The Box Office Report – January 13-15

Last week, in Box Office…

God help us all. This is how we start a new year?

The Devil Inside wins the weekend with, I believe, the second or third biggest January opening ever, $33.7 million.

I have nothing to say. Fuck you, America. (Nothing against Paramount there. They only spend $1 million on the budget. I don’t love the idea of spending $30+ million for an opening weekend, but it’s fine. My problem is with the people who went out to see it just because that’s what the commercials told them to do.)

Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol finished second with $19.9 million. Good for them. They’ve got a huge success here.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows finished third with $13.7 million. That’s also really solid, and they’re doing pretty well themselves. I think this one will be considered a bit soft for a sequel, but I think they’ve made enough money to where this will be a success. Really, all they need to do for a sequel is cut the budget a little bit, tone down the action a little bit, and tell a strong story, and they’ll be fine.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo finished fourth with $11.4 million. That’s a 23% drop, and is terrific. They’ve made $77 million domestically as of last weekend, and are well on their way of hitting their production budget. I like that. This film totally deserves it.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked finished fifth with $9.5 million. They’ve made $112 million so far, and I hate it. (I won’t link to it, but did you see David Cross on Conan the other night? He fucking trashed this movie. I like seeing people admit that movies suck.)

War Horse was sixth (it was also sixth on my Top Ten list. Fuck yeah, promotion!) with $8.7 million. That’s really solid, and they’ve made $57 million (which is almost their budget). It’s weird to think this was just supposed to be a midsize family film.

We Bought a Zoo made $8.3 million in seventh. That’s also a strong hold. It’s also made $56 million. Solid business.

The Adventures of Tintin was eighth with $6.7 million. It’s made $60 million domestically, which makes it a relative success. Since it did crazy business overseas.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy … oh this makes me so happy … finished ninth with $5.5 million. This movie so deserves every cent it makes. It’s pulled in $10 million so far, and I’m pretty sure its budget was only $15-20 million. So that is terrific for it.

So that’s last week. I’m happy to see all these movies (outside of #1) be successful.

Onto this week. New releases…

Not sure what the big release is this week. So I guess I’ll go with the one that’s not really a new release first.

Beauty and the Beast is being rereleased in 3D. This is the big film to look out for this weekend. I’m curious to see if this does Lion King business and just dominates the weekends. If that’s the case — well, it means something, but I don’t know what just yet. It’s early. I need time to marinate on it. Estimates on this are around $18-20 million. I’m not even gonna speculate on what this is going to make. I’m just going to sit back and see what happens.

The big new release opening this weekend is Contraband. Mark Wahlberg action movie, one assumes it’ll make money. But it’s not a guarantee. Remember, Max Payne was also January. I hear decent things about this. Mostly that it’s not terrible and is a fun action movie, albeit not that good (which the release date already told me). Estimates on this are around $16 million, with some going as high as $20 million. I’d guess this to be mid-teens, if I just had to guess off the top of my head.

Joyful Noise is also opening this weekend. It’s that shitty musical movie with Dolly Parton and Queen Latifah. Most people assume this’ll be low-to-mid teens. $13-15 million. That seems high to me. My first instinct would be $12 million.

That’s it for new stuff. Onto the holdovers…

The Devil Inside should be looking at a huge drop. These things generally fall at least 60% and a maximum of about $13 million. Most people have it at around $10-11 million. I’m hoping for as little as possible, just because I hate that simply spending money on marketing is what is getting these movies big opening weekends. Is it really worth the 70% drop the second weekend?

Ghost Protocol has been holding well, and there’s really no reason to think it won’t hold well. Most estimates have this at $14-15 million. I’d go $14 million myself. Still, low to mid teens seems pretty certain.

Sherlock Holmes should also hold pretty well. Most people figure around $9-10 million there. Sure, why not?

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is the film I’m really pulling for this weekend. I really want to see this do well. The consensus seems to be only a 20-25% drop and around $9-10 million. God, I hope it does that. I really do. This movie deserves money.

Alvin and the Chipmunks — jesus. They’re estimating around $6-7 million here. No comment.

War Horse — maybe it does $5-6 million. I don’t really know. At this point, I’m taking the wait and see approach, since we’re at that grey area before all the completely new shit comes out. There’s really nothing here except buoy business. So, that’s what we’re looking it. Nothing exciting here. Just — there. It’s January, people. Nobody cares. Wake me up when we get to February.

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