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The Box Office Report – January 27-29

Last week, in Box Office…

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Underworld: Awakening wins the weekend, making $25.3 million. Technically the second biggest opening in the series (they were all either $20-21 million or $25-26 million), I’d wager this one sold the least amount of tickets. Still, this is in line with the rest of them — $20+ million opening, and it’ll finish between $50-60 million domestically. Nothing new here. Get in, get out. Good for them.

Red Tails completely overperforms (which is great. I’m very happy for them) to the tune of $18.8 million. I am very happy about this, I wish them continued success, and I cannot wait to see it. (Also, just so you know how well that number is, it opened in 500 less theaters than Underworld did.)

Contraband finished third in its second weekend, dropping a standard 50% and making $12 million. This was completely anticipated and is right in line with expectations. The film has made $46 million after two weeks, and off a budget of only $25 million, I bet this is a nice success for them. Could have been a worse movie.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, right before a surprise (but not surprising) Best Picture nomination, made $10 million in its first release above like 20 theaters, finishing fourth. Okay. I’m not sure how much the Oscar boost will be for this, but I can’t imagine it’ll be more than The Artist or Hugo‘s boosts.

Beauty and the Beast, in its second weekend, dropped to fifth, with a 50% drop, making $8.8 million. Disney’s pulled in about $34 million on this so far, which is basically free money for them. Still, I imagine this was slightly more disappointing, since that Lion King take made them really get excited that this could also do that. Either way, free money. They’ll take it. (Though I’d be worried about that Finding Nemo rerelease in March. Just like Hollywood, huh? Find something that works and bombard the audience with it until they no longer want it anymore.)

Haywire opened to sixth place, making $8.4 million. This was expected. The film received great reviews, which meant audiences were going to hate it. It’s too smart for them. (It was awesome, too. And I love that the average filmgoer is going to hate it. It only makes me like it more.) So the number is kind of disappointing, but on the other hand, Soderbergh doesn’t give a shit how much his movies make, and I think that’s the right attitude. It’s not about this number. So I’m glad it at least made that much.

Joyful Noise, which I am going to subject myself to this weekend, finished seventh with $5.9 million. It has made $21 million after two weeks, and if the budget on this was anything more than $20 million, they don’t deserve to make a profit on this. I don’t even care about quality. If the budget on this movie was more than $20-25 million, they do not deserve to make it back.

Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol has entered its last week in this space, finishing eighth with $5.6 million. It will have hit $200 million domestically by the time this article comes out, so good for them. It was an awesome movie and actually deserves it. They could have found much worse ways to spend all that money.

P.S., I love that the rest of the top 20 is populated by almost entirely Oscar movies. It’s so soothing to my eyes.

So anyway, that’s last week.

New releases…

The Grey is the big film opening this week. For those who don’t know, it’s the newest entry into the “Liam Neeson beating the shit out of somebody” line of films, and features Liam Neeson beating the shit out of wolves. Ain’t It Cool has been raving about this film for months, but I can’t tell if that’s because it’s legitimately good, or one of those Hollywood Foreign Press-type bribe situations. Either way, I hope it’s good.

Most people expect it to win the weekend and also expect it to do around $14-15 million. That’s the number I’d have guessed off the top of my head for this. It still feels kind of weird that it’ll win the weekend with that number, but I guess it makes sense. And no one thinks this’ll overperform? Or are they thinking it’ll hold well based on strong word of mouth? Again, I don’t care, I just hope it’s good.

Though it does seem like one of those situations where this will make the same amount no matter what, and it’ll win the weekend based on what everything else does.

Man on a Ledge is one of the other films opening this week. It’s about a dude standing on a ledge, while some thriller shit happens all around him. This is what’s known as a “high concept” film.

Wocka Wocka.

Pretty much everyone expects this to fly totally under the radar, and do somewhere between $9-12 million. My gut would have been like $10-11 million. I’d say, on the extremes, don’t go lower than $8 million or higher than $13 million. It’ll be in that wheelhouse, and I’d skew on the higher end (as in, higher than 10) simply because, when you have a film winning with (theoretically) only $15 million, that money has to go somewhere.

One for the Money also opens this week. It reminds me of a great tweet somebody posted that said, “Isn’t the title missing the word “Another”?”

Yes it is.

I hope this fails miserably, and estimates have it at around $10 million.

I’m not even going to wager a guess. I’ll just say this — they say 10, so I hope for lower and not higher. Anything higher than $12 million here, and I’ll be upset. Less, I’ll be happy. (P.S. I hope they spent boatloads of money on this.)

Albert Nobbs also expands to 250 theaters. But it won’t make any money anyway, because no one cares about that movie. (It wasn’t bad, it’s just — nobody cares.)

Holdovers…

Underworld typically only finishes with a total of about $50 million at the box office, so that means it doesn’t hold very well at all in the second weekend. So you’re looking at about a minimum of 55% for a drop, which means a maximum weekend of $11.5 million. That makes sense. It’ll do somewhere between high $9 million and $11.5 million.

Red Tails, I’d actually expect to hold quite well. At worst it’s a 50% drop, and that’s $9+ million. I’d say ideally you’re looking at closer to 40% and around $10-11 million. I’ve seen estimates as high as $12 million. Either way, let’s hope for the best.

Contraband — maybe $6 million? I don’t know. At this point, they’re all just shitty movies, and I’m in Oscar mode, so I really won’t care how anything does for another month.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close — uhh… $7 million? I really don’t know or care anymore.

Beauty and the Beast will probably drop below $5 million, but due to the lack of stuff for this demographic, it might do $5-6 million. Might

Haywire, I’m assuming will just fall off the face of the earth this weekend. Which is a real shame. It was awesome. But, I’m expecting this to miss $5 million, because moviegoing audiences suck.

And that’s how we’re ending this one. Moviegoing audiences suck. Have fun going to see Katharine Heigl this weekend, everybody!

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