The Box Office Report – February 17-19

Last week, in Box Office…

Well fuck me silly. Two films make $40 million!

The first was The Vow, which made $41.2 million. This was way higher than expected, and I’m sure the film will not live up to it at all.

Safe House finished second, with $40.2 million. Denzel continues to open. That’s nice. I saw the film. It was okay. But I’ll be honest with you… I enjoyed Man on a Ledge so much more.

Journey 2: The Center of the Earth finished third, with what I’m assuming is a huge overperformance of $27.3 million. It was pretty decent, though. I mean — it was what it was, but it accomplished what it wanted to accomplish. You can’t ask for more than that. I’m not this film’s age range, so I get it.

Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace, in 3D, opened to fourth with — wait, seriously? $22.5 million. Jesus. Though this happened last year, didn’t it? Everyone wanted to go to the movies, and couldn’t for the first six weeks because everything sucked, then they busted out and went to Adam Sandler and Justin Bieber. So maybe this was to be expected. They did do a great job of counter-programming. I didn’t think we’d get these totals, but I constantly underestimate the depths to which American taste has sunk.

And naturally, since everything new overperformed, the holdovers did so as well. Chronicle finished fifth with $12.1 million. That’s only a 45% drop, which makes sense, considering the strong reviews and overall attendance this weekend compared to most weekends this early in the year. I watched the film last weekend. Needless to say, it was exactly as I expected it to be.

The Woman in Black dropped to $10.1 million, which is a 50% drop. Pretty standard. I’ll see that this weekend. Not particularly excited about it.

And finally, The Grey made $5 million. That was a pretty badass film. So good for it.

That’s it for last week. New releases…

The big film opening this weekend is Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance. I have faith in Neveldine and Taylor to provide a badass movie. And since the first Ghost Rider wasn’t particularly standout in any way, this can only be good for the franchise. Estimates have this around $30 million for the weekend. Sure, why not?

The Secret World of Arriety is also opening in about a third of Ghost Rider‘s theaters. I saw this film a little while back. I saw the English dubbed version with Saorise Ronan and Mark Strong and Olivia Colman. Either way, the voices didn’t matter — this was a lovely and gorgeous-looking movie. I really loved this. It had all the feeling of a Miyazaki movie. Definitely one of the best the year has to offer so far, and if I remember, I’ll put it on my “best of” list in one of the tiers come December (though, technically it is a 2010 film, so that causes some trouble. Like Ponyo, which was a 2008 film released stateside in 2009. So I guess I will put it on, just to give it some good noticed). That said, this will be lucky to hit $5-6 million this weekend. Damn shame what they did to that dog.

This Means War is also opening wide, after getting a “sneak preview” (I hate that phrase) on Valentine’s Day. I am completely expecting this to compete for Unforgivable this year. I can’t wait to see it. Estimates have it somewhere between $15-20 million for the weekend, and as always with these films, I expect higher but pray for lower.

That’s it for the new stuff. Pretty well-spread out week. Holdovers…

The Vow will probably, knowing this country, challenge Ghost Rider for first place. I don’t know if it can hit $30 million again, but I’d expect somewhere around at least $25 million, and at that point, does it even matter what it made? It’ll hit $100 million after three weeks. It doesn’t even matter what it makes, since it would then have paid for itself twice over already.

Safe House will probably take a decent hold and pull $20-25 million for the weekend. Is my guess. Again, they’re doing real well with it, so it dosen’t really matter. It’ll hit $20 million easily. That’s all they need.

Journey 2 is probably looking at somewhere between like, $22 million and $25 million. Just a ballpark figure. No idea, and I don’t really care.

Star Wars will probably be the film to not hold as well, and I’d guess a maximum of about $14 million here. Mid-to-low teens.

Chronicle — maybe $5 million. Maybe a little more. Again, it’s all gravy for them at this point.

So that’s the weekend. Things will make a lot of money, because apparently there’s no school or work on Monday. We’re right in the thick of the Oscar season now, and I don’t have time to be wasting with the Box Office. I’ll check back in once March gets here. (Though I’ll still be writing the articles. I’m not lazy. I just don’t care.)

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