The Box Office Report – March 2-4

Last week, in Box Office…

I don’t even know what opened. Seriously. I have to go back and look. That’s a first.

Act of Valor — oh yeah — opened to a strong $24.5 million. Because America is dumb and fetishizes soldiers. I hear the film is nothing more than a concept and has no story to tell of whatsoever. That’s about what I expected. But good for them, I guess. They opened to double their production budget, so that’s nice. At least they didn’t spend much. (Could have at least tried to write a decent story, though.)

Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds opened to (wow) $15.6 million. That seems a bit low for Tyler Perry. But honestly, it doesn’t matter. He wins no matter what, so it’s fine. You know what you’re getting, he doesn’t spend much, he makes money. Doesn’t matter. (I do want to see if that theorem holds up, though. By the rule I invented, this film will finish with somewhere between $30-33 million. I’ll keep you posted how it does.)

Journey 2: Mysterious Island is showing remarkable life at the box office (or maybe it’s just another one of those kids things. Gnomeo and Juliet did the same exact thing last year), dropping only 32% and finishing with $13.4 million. It has just about made its budget back domestically. That’s nice. It was harmless.

Finishing fourth was Safe House, dropping 50% to $10.9 million. The film has already done its damage, and has already crossed $100 million, so it’s already a success.

The Vow drops to fifth, with another $9.9 million, bringing its total — off a $30 million budget, mind you (I really wanna know how much they spent to market this) — to $103 million. As of Monday. Shit. I don’t think the quality was really enough to warrant that figure, but honestly, with a budget of only $30 million, I’m extremely happy for them.

Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance tanks again, dropping almost 60% in its second week to $9 million. It has made $38 million after two weeks, and probably won’t make back its (alleged) production budget of $57 million. Even if that is the budget, I have a hard time believing they didn’t spend at least $100 million on this. Based on the quality of the film, I can’t say the losses weren’t warranted.

This Means War dropped big in its second week, 50%, but considering the soft open, that’s not good. It finished seventh with $8.4 million. The film cost $65 million to make (at least a third of that was Reese’s salary), and has pulled in just half that (don’t forget the, at least, $50 million in marketing on top of that budget) after two weeks. I’ll be seeing the film this weekend, and have high hopes that it’s Unforgivable.

Wanderlust — oh man. OUCH — opened to $6.5 million. I wonder why that is. I hope it’s Aniston. But ouch. I really want to see it now. Maybe I can enjoy it. Or maybe it sucks. I won’t know until I see it, so I’ll reserve judgment until I do. Either way — ouch.

Gone — Amanda Seyfried’s shitty thriller — which was all but dumped into theaters last week, almost trying to sneak past people onto DVD, didn’t even make $5 million. $4.8 million. I’m sure it’s terrible, I’ll never see it. Apparently America felt the same way.

So that was last week. New releases…

Only two films this week, but they’re big (money-wise. Probably). The first is Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax, which, seeing as how Horton Hears a Who and whatever the other one of these was (was there another one? Even so, just Horton is enough) made bank ($45 million opening), this is looking to almost certainly do the same. Estimates also have it around $45 million, so let’s just call it a metric fuck ton and leave it at that. You know it’ll be $35 million at minimum and at maximum, $50+ million. In March, once you get past $40 million, it doesn’t matter. (Curious to see what happens next week with John Carter.)

The other film opening is Project X. Todd Phillips making a movie about a crazy house party. I’m dreading the hell out of seeing this movie, so I’ll be brief. Estimates are around $20 million. I’ll reserve judgment on whether that’s a good or bad number depending on what it does and how it holds.

That’s pretty much it for the big stuff. The Lorax is monopolizing the weekend. There’s some smaller stuff out, like Being Flynn, but that’s only 4 theaters. Nothing that’ll make an impact.

Holdovers…

Act of Valor — I can’t imagine it holds well. I have to assume about 50% for a drop and around $12-13 million. This is a weekend for the kids. People won’t go to this.

Good Deeds is fixing the standard 50% drop and around $7-8 million.

Journey 2 will have some competition from The Lorax, so at most, you’re looking at $8 million for this, probably. I’d figure $6-7 million, but really, anything between $6-9 million makes sense.

Safe House should hover around $5 million, as should The VowSafe House probably has more of a chance to hit $5 million. Ghost Rider would be lucky to hit $5 million.

Otherwise, that’s it — simple week. Lorax all the way. Next week is the interesting one.

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