The Box Office Report – April 27-29

Last week, in Box Office…

Think Like a Man makes (fucking how much?!) $33.6 million (a $16,700 per-theater average) to absolutely annihilate the box office. Most people thought $20 million was the number there (which, even that seemed too high to me). I really don’t know what to make of this, but, good for them. Only 2,000 theaters, too. (P.S. Its budget was only $12 million. So, seriously, good for them. They deserve every penny.)

The Lucky One, in a thousand more theaters than Think Like a Man, opened to second place, and $22.5 million. Which, can be considered overperforming, considering the estimates. The budget seems to have been around that number, so, whatever. I can’t get mad at films making money with low budgets. (I can get on it for being a huge piece of shit, though, so in that regard, I’m very excited to watch it.)

The Hunger Games dropped to third. I don’t think anyone’s complaining. They picked up another $14.7 million. 30% drop. In week 5. That’s incredible. $357 million for them domestically. They might end up $300 million above their budget with this. They really picked a winner here.

Chimpanzee opened to (how much? Really?) $10.7 million. I feel like every year people predict these things will open to $10 million, and they always open to 6 or 7. What makes chimps better than lions? Oh, right — a CG blockbuster and Project Nim. Chimps are in now.

Fingers crossed for that Every Which Way But Loose remake.

Finishing fifth was The Three Stooges, which — I saw. I’ll just leave it at that. $9.8 million for them. They’re at about $30 million with this, which was its budget, so, honestly, good for them.

The Cabin in the Woods made $8 million in week 2, good for sixth. Decent hold. They’re also around $30 million, and that also seems to be their budget. So, good for them also.

American Reunion picked up another $5.5 million in seventh. They’re at $50 million here, which was its budget. So, again, good for them.

Titanic 3D made $5 million. That’s eight place, and about $53 million for this. Which is also pretty good for them. I bet they’re happy with it.

New releases…

I’m dreading this. It feels like it’s gonna be a black hole. Because I know what’s coming next week.

The Five Year Engagement — oh, right. That’s not so bad — is opening. This actually looks pretty good. I like the fact that it’s an R and not a PG-13. I have hopes about this one. I don’t think people are certain where this will finish. I’ve seen estimates as low as mid-teens (like $14-15 million) and as high as mid twenties ($24-25 million). So I don’t know. I guess the rated R aspect is scaring some people off. But Bridesmaids opened to like, $22 million, right? I have to figure it’ll do around $20 million.

The Pirates! Band of Misfits is also opening. Kids movie. For the kids. Won’t do major business though. So figure like $10-12 million there. I’d skew lower rather than higher.

The Raven is also opening. R, shitty reviews, doesn’t look great — estimates put it around $10 million, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go soft and end up around $8-9 million. Of course, it could also easily finish at $12 million, but you see the general area where this will fall. It’s a $5 million window — $9-13 million — and you’d probably do best to hit somewhere in the middle there.

Safe is also opening. All of these four movies are getting generally wide releases. 2,000 theaters minimum. Which is weird. But this — I can’t imagine this has enough promotion and interest to do anything more than like, $7 million. All of Statham’s recent movies have been in this are. Didn’t The Mechanic only open to $10 million? And in January too, where it seemed like the big new opening. I can’t see this getting close to $10 million. Go anywhere between $5-8 million.

Holdovers…

Think Like a Man — depending on what The Five Year Engagement does, it could repeat. Put it this way — a 50% drop is $17 million. I doubt it’ll do that. Figure it for around $19-20 million. And like I said, depending on how Five Year Engagement does, this is either a close #1 or a close #2. Either way, they’re doing great here, and seem to be set in their number.

The Lucky One — a 50% drop is $11 million. That makes sense. Don’t go higher than $12 million here. Don’t go lower than $10 million.

The Hunger Games — this continues to hold. I gotta be honest, I’m thinking this could still come close to $10 million. I’d figure it for $9 million easy, maybe high 9, close to 10. At its lowest I think it does high $8 million.

The Three Stooges — they’ll probably hit $5 million. Maybe $6 million, but, you’re splitting hairs. That’s where it’ll be.

Chimpanzee — either it’s $5 million or it’s just below. Either way, you know the number.

Cabin in the Woods — maybe it hits $5 million, but it feels like it’s more like $4.8 million. Either way, it’ll be right there and is worth a mention.

Oh hey, look at that. That’s a top ten right there. That’s nice. It’s funny, seeing all the money spread out over a nice canvas. Because next week all the money will be going to one movie. Get ready for the summer, folks. Have fun being complacent!

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