The Box Office Report – June 15-17

Last week, in Box Office…

After what appeared to be a tight, head-to-head matchup, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted wins the weekend with $60.3 million. Which is a lot, but not wholly unexpected, as these movies have always made a shitload of money. Just wait for Ice Age next month.

Finishing second was Prometheus, which was neck and neck with Madagascar on Friday, but ended up falling short, making $51.1 million over the weekend. Aww, how bad. This is still much higher than I was expecting. And the film deserves it, it was awesome.

Third was Snow White and the Huntsman, dropping almost 60% in its second weekend (which makes perfect sense) and pulling in $23.1 million. These are my favorite weekends, since, while the film has made $100 million already, I don’t know if they’re going to make their budget back, despite the big opening weekend. I love when that happens. Essentially all they made back in weekend one was the marketing budget (and even then, not all of it). I love that.

Finishing fourth was Men in Black 3, which dropped 50% to $13.9 million. They’ve made $135 million so far, which is not nearly enough to bring them into profit on this, but, they brought that on themselves. (Though admittedly they have made $365 million overseas, but I like when things fail domestically.)

And finally, fifth (since there’s no way anything else can make money with these here) was The Avengers, with $11.2 million. They have about two more weeks left before I mercifully can be done talking about them.

All right. New releases…

Rock of Ages is the big film this weekend, and I was kind of excited for this, until I saw such shitty reviews. I almost said, “Well, Hairspray was amazing, and most people didn’t like that,” until I realized — Hairspray got great reviews. So, now I’m hoping this film is just entertaining and mostly works. Still kind of hoping it does, though, since Shankman’s a good dude, and the talent on here is great. Anyway, estimates  have it at a $25-30 million weekend. Cruise has the ability to open, but then again, this isn’t Mission: Impossible. Still, the show is known, so I’d assume closer to 30. My gut when I think about this movie — $28 million. That’s the first number that comes into my head. $35 million also sounded like a good number this morning. But apparently they’re saying it might go as low as $25 million. We’ll see, I guess. I’m gonna say 28, because my gut feels like it’s 28.

That’s My Boy also opens, and if it wins the weekend, I’m going to be pissed. All signs point to no. I’m also figuring this is a shoo-in for Unforgivable status this year, but we’ll wait until we see it. Estimates on this are low-to-mid (to even high) 20s. Let’s just call it $25 million and be done with it. Hope for less, expect more, figure the morons will go anyway, and just wait for it all to be over. That’s how we do with Sandler movies.

Holdovers…

Madagascar seems like it’ll win the weekend easily. If it does a 50% drop (which animated kids movies do not do), it’ll make at least $30 million. That should be enough to best Rock of Ages. But these movies never drop 50% in the second weekend. They drop 40-45%, possibly less. So you’re looking at $35-36 million here. Is my guess. Maybe $33-34 million. Don’t go lower than $32 million. It’ll win.

Prometheus — gotta figure 50% and $25 million. Some say it’ll make less, I’m gonna hope it makes more. That’s it. But let’s just say $25 million.

Snow White and the Huntsman — 50% — $11-12 million. That seems easy enough.

Men in Black 3 — Meh — $6-7 million.

And The Avengers — $5 million. Maybe $6 million and change.

That’s about it.

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