The Box Office Report – June 22-24

Last week, in Box Office…

Madagascar 3 wins the weekend again, as was expected. It dropped 43%, which is standard for kids movies, to $34.1 million. They’ve made $120 million after two weekends. Not surprising.

Prometheus dropped almost 60%, which is kind of high, but it did finish second and made $20.7 million. They’ve made $90 million after two weekends. It’s better than I thought they’d be doing. I thought America was stupidly going to ignore this. So at least they’re gonna do $100 million. That’s nice.

Rock of Ages on the other hand, will not do $100 million. It only made (ouch) $14.4 million. The (alleged) budget here was $75 million, but even so, the number is bad. This needed to do $20 million. And it didn’t. I can’t say I’m surprised, but I do feel slightly bad about it. Hopefully the movie is worthwhile. However, I will allow this to happen, since…

That’s My Boy only made $13.5 million. An Adam Sandler movie didn’t open. Thank fucking christ. I love when movies like this fail. Good. Good. This may not be a horrible piece of shit (I’ll wait until I see it to make any proclamations), but after the year Sandler had in 2011 (Just Go With ItJack and Jill, and then producing Bucky Larson (which he also helped write) and Zookeeper), and the fact that he got Grown Ups 2 greenlit — I’m glad this failed. Honestly, with his recent track record, he’s earned about three or four good failures in a row. So let’s let that happen.

Snow White and the Huntsman, in weekend #3, held pretty well. 42% drop. Made $13.3 million. That’s solid. They’ve made $122 million after the three weekends, and are still $50 million below their budget. They’ve pretty much made that back overseas, but this isn’t the huge hit I bet they were expecting. Good. I like when movies with unnecessary budgets don’t make them back.

Men in Black 3 made another $10 million in its fourth weekend. They’ve made $150 million domestically, about $75 million short of their (alleged) $225 million budget. Plus P&A — they’re making it back overseas (they’ve done about $400 million worldwide on top of domestic), but I don’t think they’re doing that well here. Which is totally deserved. So that’s somewhat comforting. (The $150 million they’ve made domestically is not.)

The Avengers is really on its last legs at the box office (thank fucking god, I’m sick of this goddamn movie). It made $8.9 million, and has made $587 million after seven weeks. They should end up slightly less than $600 million, which is good. It really doesn’t deserve to beat Titanic. That movie did things legit.

And nothing else made above $2.3 million.

Oh, also — more impressive than Avengers to me are two movies — one good, one bad. First — The Hunger Games — $400 million domestically. To me, that’s the real box office feat of 2012. Not the shit that was already guaranteed for $300 million. Hunger Games was only guaranteed like, $150 million. This shit already beat the fuck out of Twilight numbers, and was actually a legit really good movie. The Avengers is just summer movie bullshit that people are overrating. Hunger Games is legit good shit. So that’s the movie I want to praise. And also — Battleship — ha ha. $60 million domestically off a $209 million budget (allegedly).

Anyway… New releases…

The big film this weekend is Brave. Pixar. They’ve all earned our money, so hopefully this does well. I can’t see why it wouldn’t. Though, if it doesn’t, all you assholes who complained about there being no female Pixar heroes — you’re all gonna look like morons. There’s nothing funnier than seeing that. America complaining about something, and then that something being remedied, and then all those people being like, “What the fuck is that? I like things the way they were.” We’re such a stupid country. Every other country is so right to hate us. We deserve all of it.

Anyway… estimates here are in line with other Pixar films not part of a franchise, which is around $60 million. Cars did, I think, exactly $60 million. Maybe $62 or $63 million. This is being estimated around $58-60 million. If people don’t respond to this as well as the others, you’re looking at lower 50s, probably, but I honestly wouldn’t go lower than $55 million, since Pixar is quality and everyone knows it.

Also opening this weekend is Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. Curious to see how this one does, monetarily. My gut tells me this is a $13-15 million film. I can’t see it opening more than mid teens. Apparently the tracking agrees with me. Most people see it around $14-16 million. Maybe $17 million on a strong weekend. If it really opens, maybe it’ll pull $20 million, but I’m thinking this will fare a lot like Priest did in this timeframe last year. Probably a little better, since the title and concept is much more interesting and will get people to go see it. I say mid teens.

Seeking a Friend at the End of the World is also opening in 1,400 theaters, but that’s but a pittance compared to those other two. This movie will be lucky to do good business. Let’s call it $6-7 million on a solid weekend and be done with it. I’m rooting for it, sight unseen, but I can’t assume this will do decently. I have no faith in the American public on these things.

That’s it for new movies. Holdovers…

Madagascar 3 will probably hold pretty well, but it has a lot of competition from Brave. A standard 50% drop puts it at around $17-18 million. I wouldn’t go higher than $20 million here at best. Maybe $19 million. I’m hoping for a bigger drop and it making like $15-16 million. Because that means Brave is doing really solid business. And that’s what I want. So I’m not even going to pretend to be objective about this number. $17-19 million is almost definitely the number.

Prometheus will be lucky to hit a 50% drop, but we’ll say $10-11 million anyway, just in the hopes that it holds well. But all signs probably point to something like $8-9 million here. But it’s week 3. Usually the 60% drop in week 2 usually points to an overly large week 1 number. Usually they hit 50% in week 2 anyway (unless the week 1 number was really high, and then the 60% drops are standard). I’d figure $10-11 million here. 50% feels right. (Don’t go lower than $9 million.)

Rock of Ages — yeesh. This thing is lucky to make $7 million this weekend. Here’s hoping for the best, but — it’ll be tough. $7-8 million.

That’s My Boy — can we hope that it makes nothing? Can I vote for it making nothing? At best it’ll do $6-7 million. I hope for low 6. I want to laugh. Please help me laugh, America, by letting me see this movie fail. Because you know seeing this movie will not make me laugh.

Snow White and the Huntsman — $5-6 million. Weak 7th or 8th place this weekend. Pretty standard.

Men in Black 3 — $5 million. Maybe lower, but let’s just call it $5 million. 9th place. Possibly tenth.

The Avengers — $5 million. and if I don’t mention it, it didn’t hit $5 million, and I was so excited I’d never have to talk about it again that I deliberately did not mention it.

So that’s it. Summer shit. Kind of excited for all these three movies, though. So that’s good. They all seem entertaining in their own ways. Plus Woody Allen’s movie is out in limited release. So it’s solid shit all around. Go out and see a movie this weekend, America. I’m going to see Moonrise Kingdom. You have mostly good choices. So go do it. This is the calm before the dark night of the rest of the summer rises.

Get it? See what I did there? With the italics and play on words and the —

Oh, fuck you, I’m hilarious.

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One response

  1. paolo

    you are wrong :-) The Avengers is reaching $593 mil. right now. It will be at $600 mil. in 3 days. It will end at $620-625mil, and $1,55 worldwide

    June 23, 2012 at 9:43 am

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