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The Box Office Report – July 6-8

Last week, in Box Office…

Ted absolutely destroys the competition with $54.4 million. This is more than double what was expected. I think a lot of people expected this would have a wider audience than one would immediately think (MacFarlane having the Family Guy exposure, plus Wahlberg, plus the fact that it just looked fucking hilarious), but I think this somehow managed to surprise everyone with how well it did. And since I hear this is actually a great movie, I’m absolutely ecstatic for them.

Magic Mike also opened higher than it was expected to. Estimates here were around $30 million. It did $39.1 million. That’s $90 million on two hard R movies. That’s incredible. Absolutely incredible. And I hear that both are actually legit good movies, which makes me even happier. These two movies making money (off a combined budget of less than $60 million) makes up for all those shitty movies that have made money so far this year. Well — some of them.

Brave also held well in its second weekend, dropping slightly below 50% to make another $34.1 million. This was right in line with expectations, and the film is continuing to do really well (despite so-so reviews. I haven’t watched it yet, but I’m due to), so that’s nice.

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection — you know it’s a surprising weekend when a Tyler Perry movie is all but forgotten — opened to $25.4 million, which is right in line with his usual openings. Also, don’t forget, based on the Tyler Perry Box Office Theorem I’ve created — that means this film will end up pulling in around $50 million when all is said and done. I’m gonna give a slight bit of leeway for this one, it being a Madea movie, and say it can end up around $55 million, but I think that when this thing is done, it will still fall in line with all the other Tyler Perry movies in terms of box office. (That’s why it’s a Theorem.)

Fifth place was Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted, making $11.8 million in its fourth weekend. That’s a 40% drop, and the film is doing standard animation business. Surprising, considering all the money everything before it pulled. You’d think this would drop higher than it did, but no. They’ve made $180 million on this, and will probably get close to $200 million by the end of this week.

Sixth place was Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, which, in its second weekend, made $6 million. That’s a 63% drop, and while not all that surprising, is not good news. They needed 50% to maintain a shred of dignity there. But, even so, $29 million in two weeks, off a $70 million budget — it’s not an abject failure. This will pull in money on DVD and stuff. That was always where the money was gonna be on this one. This is another one I’m due to see and haven’t. I’m holding off on this and Brave until I can get to see Moonrise Kingdom and Ted. Hopefully I’ll get all these movies in before Dark Knight Rises. (I’m sure I will.)

Speaking of Moonrise Kingdom — it beat all those other holdovers and finished seventh with $4.9 million. The film’s actually made its budget back in theaters. That budget was only $16 million, but still — I’m happy for them. Everyone loves it, and I’m dying to see it. I just like to see a Wes Anderson movie make its money back. They don’t usually do that. He’s kind of like Scorsese in the 80s — everyone knows his movies are great, yet you always worry they won’t keep letting him make them because they don’t make money. So I’m glad this made money. This seems to be the Midnight in Paris of this year.

Oh, Prometheus also made $4.9 million. Eighth place. Another 50% drop in week 4. They’ve made $120 million domestically, off a $130 million budget, so I think they’re doing all right here. Oh, yeah — $165 million more overseas. They’re doing fine. Good for them.

Everything else was below $4.5 million, and the other movie opening, People Like Us — only $4.3 million. I’m not surprised. It didn’t open in a lot of theaters, nobody really knew the movie or would care about what it’s about, the stars aren’t hugely bankable, and the title is shit. They should have kept the original title — “Welcome to People.” Plus the reviews were tepid at best. They were like, “Yeah — this is not particularly great, but we’ll give it the benefit of the doubt and go slightly positive.”

Anyway…new releases…

It’s gonna be a strange week, since stuff opened on Tuesday. But we’ll do our best.

The Amazing Spider-Man was the big film opening this week. Obviously we should all know how well it’s doing — they weren’t exactly quiet about it. The film made about $36 million on Tuesday, including both midnight shows and the rest of the day (I didn’t care enough to wait for the official number to come in.) My favorite thing about it is that while they went up to all the rooftops to shout the number, they were also quick to point out, “Oh, but this is the lowest opening day number of the franchise.” We’re cocky, but we’re not that cocky. We’re making a lot of money, but don’t worry, we’re still just like you. You see, we’re used to $50 million on our opening day. Fucking Hollywood.

Anyway, all-told, despite some questionable reviews here or there (though you know the bottom-feeders will be nothing but positive, and the public will go apeshit over it), this should easily do $140-150 million by Sunday. So what the fuck are we talking about here?

And the Katy Perry concert movie also opened. I refuse to give it the distinction of being bolded and italicized. No. That opened yesterday, actually. Some people expect this to do really well (like, $20 million Thursday to Sunday), and some don’t. Let’s just call it $13 million and never mention this again, okay?

Savages is also opening. Though this is opening tomorrow and didn’t open on Tuesday or Thursday like the other ones. Mostly because kids aren’t going to go see this. I get that. Estimates are pretty tepid. $9-10 million. Which I get. Not exactly a lot of people clamoring to go see this over everything else that’s out. $10-11 million felt like what my gut would say if I didn’t look at anything. So that feels right.

Holdovers…

Ted is looking at a 50% drop, simply because of the vast overperformance last week. Plus it’s a comedy, and I feel like it’s not gonna get that great word of mouth to hold. Plus, a 50% drop is actually in line with what everyone was expecting it to do last week, so it’s not like that’s a bad thing. 50% puts it at $27 million. That’s a very good number. So let’s leave it at that and move on.

Magic Mike — I don’t see this holding well. I think that was one of those ejaculate films. Everyone ejaculates on the first day and then that’s it. At least 50% here. So under $20 million. Let’s call it $18 million. This should definitely drop higher than 50%.

Brave — this should probably overtake Magic Mike this weekend. First place is Spider-Man, second place is Ted. This should hit third place. I’m thinking like, $19-20 million. A 50% drop is $17 million, and it’s a kids movie, so they almost never do that. Maybe Spider-Man takes some audience, but still — I think you’re looking at $18-19 million, and slightly more than Magic Mike.

Madea’s Witness Protection — uhh — what was last week? 25? So,let’s call it $11-12 million. These generally fall like 52% in their second weekend. So low teens. It should hit $10 million and should almost definitely not go higher than $13 million. This seems pretty standard business.

Madagascar 3 — $6 million. That seems easy. Maybe $7 million, but competition is fierce. So $6-7 million.

And maybe Moonrise Kingdom holds on for another $5 million thereabouts gross. Otherwise, that’s your box office this week. Spider-Man, Ted, Brave, Magic Mike, Madea. Top 5. That order. Probably.

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