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The Box Office Report – July 20-22

Last week, in Box Office…

Ice Age: Continental Drift won the weekend as expected. However, it didn’t make as much money as expected. So that’s a plus. Kind of. Instead of the $50-55 million opening most were expecting, it only made $46.6 million. Not exactly something to commit harakiri over. But it’s somewhat nice. Not that this will stop them from making sequels (since you know it’s gonna do at least a half a billion dollars worldwide), but maybe it means the end to these shitty animated sequels in this particular franchise is coming sooner rather than later. So, I’m hopeful.

The Amazing Spider-Man dropped to an obvious second place in its second weekend, making $34.6 million. Which is actually only a 44% drop from last weekend (Friday-Sunday, not the whole weekend stuff). That’s strong. That means audiences liked the film and are giving it great word of mouth. By next weekend, they’ll have passed their budget domestically, which makes this a certifiable hit for Sony. And good for them.

Ted continues to hold amazingly well. It only dropped 30% last weekend. (And it’s rated R!) It made $22.4 million in third place, and this $50 million movie has, after three weeks, made $160 million. Incredible. It’s certainly going to help cover those Battleship losses, huh Universal?Brave finished fourth, dropping 43%, which is standard, making $11.2 million. After four weeks, they’ve made just about $200 million on this, which is more than the film’s budget. Of course this was going to be a hit, it’s Pixar.

Savages actually surprised me in its second weekend. Sure it finished fifth, but it held 60%. It only dropped 41%. You’d think for a film like this, in the middle of the summer, it would drop 50-55%, because the dumb audiences would rather go see the boring summer crap instead. It made $9.4 million, and after two weeks, the film has made $32 million. And off a $45 million budget, that’s actually pretty impressive. And I’m very pleased with this, since people like Oliver Stone need to keep getting the money to make films.

Magic Mike, in its third weekend — talk about a film making good — dropped only 40% again, and made, in sixth place, $9 million. Its total so far, off a %7 million budget? $91.8 million. Studio executives are literally willing to blow Channing Tatum and swallow right now.

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection finished seventh with $5.6 million. The film has made $55.6 million so far, which seems about in line with my Tyler Perry’s Tyler Perry Box Office Theorem. The film opened to $25 million and change. And my theorem posits that Tyler Perry films generally finish about double their opening weekends, with Madea films skewing a bit higher than double. And when all is said and done, this looks like it’ll end up around $60 million, which is mostly in line with my theory. A little higher than I’d have liked, but still pretty close. I like that.

Nothing else hit $4 million and won’t be mentioned (though shout outs to Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild. Support these movies).

New releases…

Batman. Batman Batman Batman. Nothing else is opening.

This weekend is nothing but The Dark Knight Rises. There’s really nothing to say except — what are we thinking for a final tally? We thinking it’ll beat The Avengers less than two months after it beat Titanic? I’m hoping it does, simply because I support this franchise more than I support anything Marvel has done so far. (That’s not true. I support the first Iron Man. But I’ve yet to be impressed by anything Marvel has done, franchise-wise. And I think them tying everything into one universe is dragging down all the individual filmes. So I hope this makes more money than Avengers did.)

Estimates for the weekend are figuring at about — $180+ million for the weekend, including $80+ million for Friday alone. I’m sure the midnight numbers will be in a few hours from now. I was at one of those screenings. I’ll tell you now — it was packed, and they were selling several midnight shows in my theater. It’s gonna make a fuckload of money. Do we really need to guess an exact number? At this point, is there really a difference between $160 million and $180 million (outside of the obvious)?

Holdovers…

Ice Age is probably looking at around a 50% drop at most. So you’re looking at $23 million at least here. So go $23-25 million with this.

Spider-Man is going to be the biggest Dark Knight casualty. A 50% seems an easy bet. So at most you’re looking at $17 million. Figure $16-17 million here. At worst, $15 million.

Ted has a shot at holding again, actually. 50% is an at worst figure for this. So at worst, it’s gonna make $11 million. I figure $12 million and change.

Brave looks like it’ll hit the standard drop and make around $5-6 million. Don’t go higher than $7 million.

Savages — at best, $5 million. Close to $6 million if it’s really lucky, but honestly, with the bat out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this at like, $4.8 million.

Magic Mike may hit $5 million, but I don’t see it. But let’s call it $5 million for the fuck of it.

That’s it. Nothing else will come close to $5 million. You know we’re all going to see one movie and one movie only this weekend. Who gives a shit how much it’s gonna make? We know.

http://bplusmovieblog.com

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2 responses

  1. Michael

    Have you seen Beasts yet?

    July 20, 2012 at 10:44 am

  2. Chinoiserie

    Ice age is Fox not Dreamworks.

    July 20, 2012 at 2:15 pm

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