The Box Office Report – August 17-19

Last week, in Box Office…

The Bourne Legacy exceeded most people’s expectations (but not as much as was initially reported) and made $38.1 million. The early estimates were $30-35 million, so it did slightly better than the higher end of expectations, but the initial Friday numbers were like, $45 million. I’m happier with this number. It feels right. I hear it’s pretty good, and since there’s no single reason why people don’t like it that I’ve heard from those who don’t like it (and most of the ones I’ve heard are stupid at that), so I’m hoping I really enjoy it.

The Campaign opened to $26.6 million. Second place. I’ll talk about this once I see it.

The Dark Knight Rises dropped to third, and pulled in another $19 million. They’ll hit $400 million on this by next weekend. Good for them.

Hope Springs opened to $14.7 million, which is to be expected out of the film, and actually pretty strong, all things considered. It also made $19 million from Wednesday, so to me, they’re doing really well so far.

Total Recall, on the other hand (which I saw and really enjoyed. I don’t know what most of you fuckers were expecting, but I thought it was well worth my time), dropped almost 70% in its second weekend, making $8 million and only $44 million after two weeks. It cost $125 million (and lord knows how much to market), so — ouch.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days made $8 million in weekend number two. They’ve made $30 million after two weeks off a $22 million budget, so they’re solid on this one.

Ice Age: Continental Drift, in weekend number five, made $6.4 million. They have almost $145 million domestically on this. Don’t worry, these movies will always be in profit because of the international grosses. Unless they absolutely tank domestically (talking less than $75 million), they’ll always make money and there will always be more of them.

That’s it for last week. New releases…

The Expendables 2  is the big film. First one opened huge (to apparently nobody’s expectations but mine, it seemed), and this was but a foregone conclusion. Stallone let us know he loved sequels in 1979. This was always going to happen. It’s soon going to become the AARP of the action genre.

I quite enjoyed the first film when it came out (though I saw it the same day I saw Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, which was my favorite film of that year, so let’s temper that reality), and I thought a sequel could work. I’m not really sure how good it’s going to be, this one, but I’ll give Sly the benefit of the doubt. Estimates on it are mid-$30 million. Now, the first one did $34 million, and — like all sequels, I’m expecting, less quality, more money. So I’m figuring this will do somewhere like $37-40 million, and quite possibly over $40 million. Because that’s just what these movies seem to do. A weak opening for this film would be $30 million, which is still great. I feel like it does 30 easily, mid 30s on average, and 40 and above on a great weekend. I’m looking out for the last option, just because that’s how a sequel to a movie like that would work. Like The Hangover Part II — that looked horrible before it came out, and the first one was a sleeper hit. But what happened? People went anyway. So I’m figuring no matter what this movie is, people will go anyway.

Also opening is ParaNorman. I don’t know much about this film except it’s a weird little animated film. I don’t know how well it’ll go over (or if it’ll even be a good movie), but the estimates are mid-teens. $13-15 million. Which is kind of a shame, since it seems like it’s a really good movie. But that sounds like a safe guess for a movie like this. On a good weekend, this does closer to $20 million. $17-20 million for this seems like an ‘overachieving’ weekend. I’m just hoping for a good movie.

The Odd Life of Timothy Green is opening on Wednesday, and while I know very little about the film (though I’m pretty sure this one is the one where the parents wish for the kid and he magically grows out of the ground or something, right?), I can’t imagine it’s meant to do that much business, especially when it’s opening against a big animated movie going for the same audience. The estimates, not surprisingly, are about the same. Mid-teens. Though it had the benefit of opening on Wednesday and did $2.3 million (thereabouts). Which is what Hope Springs did last week, and that ended up with about $14-15 million for the weekend, so let’s assume that’s what this does. Though I don’t know if this one ends up closer to $20 million with the extra two days. I think this is more like $17-18 million with the two days, but that’s just me.

Sparkle is also opening. It’s that Dreamgirls knockoff that has the luxury of being Whitney Houston’s last film. Still — don’t expect much. Film-wise or box office-wise. Though the film does have the capacity to be decent, and I hope for all our sakes, it is. Otherwise it’s just totally unnecessary.

Estimates — actually good. God help us all. Also mid-teens. I’ve seen as high as $17-18 million and as low as $11-12 million. So again most people are seeing a dogfight in the $13-15 million range for three movies. Which must mean they don’t know what the fuck audiences are gonna do. This is the film I want to see succeed the least, which means it must be the one most likely to get closer to $20 million. Because people are stupid. I’ll say — $14 million sounds acceptable for this, and we’ll leave it at that.

Holdovers…

Bourne Legacy won’t finish in first place. In fact, it might not even finish in second place. A 50% drop for this is $19 million. I’m figuring it might have overachieved a bit last weekend, so a drop closer to 55% is in order. And that drop puts this at $17 million. Maybe $16 million and change. So I’m figuring it’ll be in that range. That should put it at second place, assuming nothing jumps up from the estimates, but either way — I think $17 million is the number here.

The Campaign — uhh — $13 million? Sure. Why the fuck not?

Dark Knight Rises seems to be an easy $10-11 million.

Hope Springs is lucky to make $7 million this weekend. Call it $6-7 million and be done with it.

Recall, considering the drop, I doubt this hits $5 million. I’d be shocked. You don’t drop 70% in weekend number two (after only making mid-20s the first weekend. Usually there’s a 1 in front of that number when there’s a 70% drop) and magically hold well after that.

Wimpy Kid — maybe $5 million, but how, with two kids films being released? I don’t see it, but maybe.

Crowded weekend here. Don’t worry, it’s gonna be shitty for a while now. In terms of wide releases, the only ‘decent’ (being a relative and speculative term at best) wide releases we have for the next month to look forward to are Lawless and Trouble with the Curve. September is always a terrible month for movies. So we’ll just get through it. (The bright side is, there’s some great limited release stuff in there, and it ends with Looper. So that’s good. Then Oscar season starts, and all the good shit finally comes out.)

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