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The Box Office Report – September 21-23

Last week, in Box Office…

Resident Evil: Retribution won the weekend, to absolutely no one’s surprise. It was actually the best movie in the series since the first one. It made $21.1 million, which is in line with the franchise.

Finding Nemo (3D) — like I fucking said! — didn’t win the weekend. It only made $16.7 million. I knew this shit wasn’t cracking the upper $20 million range.

The Possession finished in third, with $5.8 million. It’s already made way too much money, so this is the last you’ll be hearing about this in one of these articles.

Lawless — jesus — didn’t even make $5 million. $4.3 million.

I love how bad the box office has been. It’s hilarious.

Also Arbitrage opened to $2 million. Just wanted to mention it. It was terrific. And The Master made $736,00 in only five theaters, which I’m pretty sure broke records. That was also really good.

New releases…

Dredd is technically the big film opening this week, budget-wise, and is the film you’d expect to win the weekend. But as soon as I heard this and heard the date, I said, “$15-17 million for the weekend. Max.” You know if they’re dumping it in September it’s not an abject failure, but it’s also probably not very good either. And lo and behold — they’re not expecting it to do very well. I’ve seen estimates as low as like, $9 million. Though I feel like $12-13 million seems to be the most likely number. $15 million is a little high. $13 million makes sense. At this point, a $13 million weekend is okay for it, all things considered, and anything less than that gets progressively worse as we go down.

Trouble with the Curve is really the big film opening, it being the only one that looks actually good. Clint does well this time of year. Hereafter — which nobody was gonna give a shit about, made $12 million and J. Edgar made $11 million in their respective opening weekends. This one has Clint in it and is about baseball. That automatically makes for a better debut. You have to figure $15 million on a bad weekend and closer to $20 million on a good weekend. Probably like $16-18 million seems about right here. And if it really overperforms — $21 million. No one’s going to the box office yet. September is still a low month. A $20 million opening is the best you’re gonna get. October is when the stuff starts picking up, and even then it’s usually the Halloween one-off, or an animated movie. It’s usually ho hum until that big November 9th release, and then it picks up for Thanksgiving.

End of Watch is also opening, but I can’t imagine it’ll fare well. Though it does seem to be getting a bit of a push, so maybe the $10-11 million opening they’re expecting will pan out, but $8-9 million seems more likely to be the case. I don’t want to say they’re gonna be wrong, but I know what my gut tells me, and my gut usually tends to be closer of a barometer than tracking numbers. And my gut is saying that if this thing hits $10 million for the weekend, it won’t be above $10.1 million or thereabouts.

House at the End of the Street is also opening. They pushed this a few times. I think it was originally opening in like, April or something. Not that it matters, since it’ll be a shitty horror/thriller and the only reason people will go is because they want to see Jennifer Lawrence’s tits, which are prominently displayed all over the advertising.

And, sure enough — they’re saying this will do like $15 million this weekend. I guess because those by-the-numbers people are like, “Oh, the Hunger Games crowd is sure to go!” And that may be the case, but I refuse (and I’m always wrong with these shitty thrillers, because America really is that stupid) to believe this does better than like, $13 million. I mean, it’s not like $15 million is a real coup, but some people are saying it will win the weekend, and I like to try to think that we have enough discernable taste for quality that we won’t just go see this because they’re telling us to.

I’d like to think that.

Holdovers…

Resident Evil will fall the same way this franchise always falls in the second weekend and drop 60% to around $9 million. And that’s being generous. $8 million is more like it. Maybe even 7.

Finding Nemo won’t hold. And by that I mean — 40% drop, since they always drop 40%. So we’ll call it $10 million for it. Maybe $11 million. Almost definitely over 10, not over 11 and change.

Also — look for The Master to make a showing and potentially hit that $5 million mark as well. It’s expanding and did really well last week, so there’s a chance it sneaks in there.

Nothing else will come close to $5 million. I’m talking like probably not above 3. It’s bad.

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