The Box Office Report – September 28-30

Last week, in Box Office…

End of Watch actually won the weekend. Wait, really? Shows how little attention I was paying the Box Office since last Thursday. I actually didn’t even realize this article was supposed to go up until the last minute.

So it made $13.2 million, which isn’t really winning the weekend. But honestly, the amount of promotion I saw for it the past month or so, it makes sense. I remember seeing a giant billboard for it on Melrose (and also on Sunset, I think) and was like, “Damn. I thought that didn’t even have a release date like, four months ago.” They pushed pretty hard for it, all things considered. So I guess it makes sense. But on the other hand — $13.2 million isn’t anything to write home about for a #1 finish.

House at the End of the Street finished second with $12.3 million. This was not unexpected at all, and is exactly within the range of these movies.

Trouble with the Curve only made $12.2 million, reminding me something I always forget — old people don’t go to the movies the first weekend. They go in the subsequent weeks. These movies don’t get those bigger-than-expected openings. I always forget that. (And you can’t expect teens to go. Teens are stupid.)

Finding Nemo 3D made $9.6 million in fourth place. I’m pretty sure $10 million was the expected number here, so nobody should be surprised by that.

Resident Evil: Retribution — wow, this was harsher than I expected, fell 68% (holy fuck. That’s like, $70 million opening weekend drop) to $6.7 million. Jesus.

And Dredd — wow, I forgot this even opened. Apparently so did America — opened to a paltry $6.3 million in sixth place. Jesus. Was it that bad? It got decent reviews. Which I guess means it was doomed to fail. “What? Good reviews? Fuck that. We’ll go see The Possession again instead.”

And The Master made $4.4 million in seventh place. Just a reminder, it was in less than a third of the theaters everything else before it was in.

And nothing else even crossed $2.7 million. Ha.

New releases…

Hotel Transylvania is the big film opening this weekend. A month out from Halloween. Interesting choice. I’m guessing they figure the Halloween weekend will boost where they’re at in a month.

Normally, an animated movie like this, you assume that it’ll suck and that it’ll make $25-30 million. But honestly — I don’t think this tops out over 25. Maybe $23-24 million. I don’t think this does particularly well at all. People really don’t go back to the movies for another few weeks.

Looper is also opening. I have complete faith in Rian Johnson that this film will be incredible and complete faith in the American public that they won’t go to see it. Because they’re stupid. Estimates here are like, $17-18 million, and I fucking hope so. I want this film to succeed on principle. Nobody saw Brick and The Brothers Bloom in theaters, and they were some of the best movies of their respective years. So I hope this makes money.

Won’t Back Down is also opening. It’s not in too many theaters, and nobody knows what the fuck it is, so it’s gonna be lucky to hit $5 million. Maybe $6 million on a good weekend.

Holdovers…

End of Watch — at best, makes $7 million and change. At worst — $7 million. Don’t go higher than mid 8, don’t go lower than 7. Simple as that. Expect 50% at worst.

House at the End of the Street — expect a 50% as a base figure. At most, you’re looking at $6.5 million. Let’s just call it $5-6 million and leave it at that. I’ll expect closer to 6, but still in the 5 range. Maybe low 6, since nothing much is out, but honestly, a good hold for this is a 53% drop, and that’s only like $5.9 million, so I’d say there’s an 80% chance of this number having a 5 in front of it. So high $5 million is almost certainly your number here.

Trouble with the Curve should hold. At worst, expect a 50% drop. So at worst, $6 million. At best, $7 million. Best case scenario — $7.5 million. So lt’s say between $6.5-7.5 million is about 90% likely to be the number on this one. (It’ll be fighting End of Watch for third place.)

I’d be pretty surprised to see anything else hit $5 million. Nemo is almost certainly looking at a $4+ million weekend, so maybe it comes close to hitting it. Otherwise — that’s all I have.

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