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The Box Office Report – October 26-28

Last week, in Box Office…

I completely forgot about this article. I’m totally tuned out to whatever’s out until Skyfall. It’s really bad.

Paranormal Activity 4 opened to $29 million. That’s encouraging. They had to have expected 35-40, right? So I’m happy. They only spend $5 million on these movies anyway, so it’s not like they’re hurting for profit.

Argo, on the other hand, dropped only — wait for it — 15.5%! — and made $16.4 million. They’ve made their budget back on this one in theaters, and I couldn’t be happier. (Still haven’t seen it yet, though.)

Taken 2 dropped 40% and made another $13 million, which makes sense. They’ve made $100 million here off a $45 million budget, so good for them.

Hotel Transylvania made an even $13 million for the weekend. 25% drop. They’ve made $118 million here as of Monday, and honestly, good for them. The film wasn’t terrible, even though it wasn’t particularly great. (Too much of that modern animation bullshit. Pop culture references that won’t hold up past 2013.)

Alex Cross only opened to $11.4 million, which is a shame. But I haven’t seen it yet, so maybe it’s terrible. But they only spent $35 million on it, so maybe they’ll pull out a profit on it. I root for these movies that have smaller budgets, even if they end up not being very good.Sinister dropped 51%, which is standard, and made $8.8 million. They’ve made almost $32 million off a $3 million budget after two weeks, so good for them. I’ll probably leave the movie to those people who enjoy these types of movies, but good for them. I’m glad they made money.

Here Comes the Boom only dropped 29% — but don’t worry, it only made $8.8 million. The budget was around $40 million and they’ve only made $23 million after two weeks. It won’t be a hit, but I’m sure we’ll still be subjected to another one of these next year.

Pitch Perfect made another $6.8 million. (Holy shit.) They’ve made $45 million here on a $17 million budget. Good for them. I haven’t seen it, and I’m sure it’ll just be average/bordering on moderately entertaining, but still — good for them.

And then Frankenweenie didn’t even hit $4.5 million, so, we’re done.

New releases…

Silent Hill: Revelation is coming out. I saw the original Silent Hill, and I actually enjoyed it. It wasn’t great of course, but I really like what they did with sound in that movie. I think it was pretty good entertainment that’s a bit overlooked as a halfway decent film. (Seriously, go back and check it out. It’s not bad. And this is coming from someone who hates horror movies.) I don’t expect this one to do that well, especially going up against Paranormal. $15-16 million feels like a ceiling on this, and I expect more like $13-14 million. I’m guessing they didn’t spend that much money on this, since they only spent $50 million on the original, and I doubt they were breaking down doors to get this made, so the budget can’t have been more than like, $30 million, so a $15 million weekend would be solid.

Cloud Atlas is also opening. It looks big and sprawling, and I doubt people will go out to see it. They’re not putting it in more than like 2,000 theaters, so there’s a possibility this doesn’t do very well. They’re estimating $12-13 million on this, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it went lower. I really wouldn’t. It’s tough to call here, since there’s a lot to make people not want to come see it.

Fun Size is also opening. It seems like a shitty teen comedy, so I’m sure that’ll put it at about $8-9 million.

Chasing Mavericks is also opening. Surfing movie. Yeah… $5-6 million. Definitely the weak link here unless Fun Size really tanks.

Holdovers…

Paranomal should theoretically win the weekend, but not as handily as you’d think. Though this franchise has suffered some huge drops in previous entries. The second film dropped 60%, and the third dropped 65%. Though, to be fair, those both opened at $40 million and $52 million respectively. This one might fall closer to 55%, which would still put it at only $13 million for the weekend. A 50% drop puts it at $14 million and change, 55% is $13 million, and 60% is $11.5 million or so. So, assuming Silent Hill opens the way you’d expect, this could potentially finish third this weekend. Unless that falls too, in which case, all bets are off.

Argo, on the other hand, could actually win the weekend. We can assume it’ll hold well. A 30% drop gives it $11.5 million, and a 25% drop gives it about $12.5 million. This could theoretically, which a slightly bigger drop than last week, make $13 million and even win the weekend. And I’m hoping it does just that, even though I doubt it will. I’ll take a good hold. That would be nice.

Alex Cross should drop into the $6-7 million range. High $5 million on a bad weekend.

Taken 2 will probably fall between $6-7 million. That’s pretty standard.

Hotel Transylvania — actually, this could make like $9-10 million.

Here Comes the Boom will probably hit low $5 million. Sinister might come close, as might Pitch Perfect.

This is a tough weekend. Best guess — first place is between Silent Hill and ArgoSilent Hill could easily only make like, $11 million though. And if Argo is in first place, it’s quite possible Silent Hill isn’t second.

Cloud Atlas should hover around third, maybe second. Hotel Transylvania will be in third or fourth, I’d figure, duking it out with Paranormal Activity. Those seem to be your top five.

Then Taken, Here Comes the Boom, Alex Cross, Fun Size and Sinister (and possibly Pitch Perfect are probably 6-10. Oh, and Chasing Mavericks actually makes sense as a top ten finisher as well.

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