The Box Office Report – November 2-4

Last week, in Box Office…

Argo wins the weekend (yes) by holding to only a 26.5% drop and making $12.1 million. That’s great for the film, they’ve made about $61 million so far, only, the biggest thing it winning said was about the other films.

Cloud Atlas opened to a weak second place and only $9.6 million. This was about what I expected, though slightly lower than I’d hoped. I figured $10-11 million. But it got off light compared to the other releases. (Though not really, since this was the only new release with a $100 million budget.)

Hotel Transylvania fell 27% and made $9.4 million in third place. They’ve made $130 million on this one.

Paranormal Activity 4 — ouch — fell 70% into fourth place and made $8.5 million. Still, they’ve made 8x their budget back in theaters after two weeks. I think they’ll be fine.

Silent Hill Revelation 3D — remember when people were saying this was gonna win the weekend? — made $8 million and opened to a weak fifth place. That makes sense to me. I didn’t buy that people were magically gonna go see this just because it was a wide release on Halloween. Unless it’s the summer, people need a reason to go to the movies. This is not it.

Taken 2 fell 42% and made $7.7 million in sixth place. They’re past $115 million on a $45 million budget. Trust me, they’re in the black on this. (They fucking better be.)

Here Comes the Boom made $5.2 million. Seventh place. They’ve made $30 million here. I assume it’s still not what it cost to make it.

Alex Cross made $5.1 million in eighth place and hasn’t made $20 million after two weeks. Shame. I saw it. It’s okay. I guess white people have a vendetta against Tyler Perry or something.

Sinister was literally about $38 under $5 million this weekend. They’ve made about 13x their budget back on it, so either way, they’re doing all right.

Oh, and both Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks opened under $5 million. Fun Size made $4.1 million (3,000 theaters), and Chasing Mavericks — ready? — $2.3 million (2,000 theaters). Yeesh.

New releases…

Wreck-It Ralph is the big film opening. It will absolutely destroy the competition this weekend. I will guarantee you that it will more than double the second place finisher’s gross. It might even go two-and-a-half times more, but I won’t guarantee that one. Let’s put it this way — $40 million seems almost guaranteed for this. On a bad weekend — $36 million. On a good weekend — maybe even $50 million. Let’s call it 40 and see what it does. And more importantly, what the competition does.

Flight is also opening. Robert Zemeckis, Denzel — some promotion — might do well. Then again, it’s only opening in about 2,000 theaters. I can’t see this doing too well. $15 million seems like a great weekend for this. $12-13 million feels more like it. It might even drop to $10-11 million. I wouldn’t go lower than that, though. I expect low teens here, which, if it does, means Wreck-It Ralph will more than double-and-a-half its total. I’d feel better about it making money if it were opening in more theaters. I still can’t see this making $15 million in such a low number of theaters. But maybe it can.

The Man with the Iron Fists is also opening. Specialty release. These rarely make more than $11 million, even though I’m excited to see it. It’s the kind of film that a lot of people say they want to see, but when it comes down to it (remember Snakes on a Plane?), no one actually goes. $10 million will be a great weekend for this. I expect $8-9 million, with potential to do a lot more and a lot less than those numbers (a lot being, like, a $4 million swing up and a $2 million swing down).

Holdovers…

Argo is looking like a third place finisher this weekend. It won’t beat the two big releases, but it has a decent shot at beating Man with the Iron Fists. I’m figuring this’ll do between $8-9 million, which, depending on how Man with the Iron Fists does, puts it at either third or fourth place.

Cloud Atlas — let’s call it $5-6 million. 5 is more likely, 6 is being hopeful. $6.2 million would be really nice. Though I doubt it. America just seems to want to shit all over the Wachowskis. (Though I hear the film is really philosophical and hard to grasp. America doesn’t like films that make you have to think. That’s the key. They like when they make you think, but they don’t want to have to think.)

Then uhh — Hotel Transylvania — direct competition from Wreck-it Ralph — $5 million. 5-6. Mid 5.

Taken 2 — about $5 million. Probably just under. But close.

I doubt Paranormal Activity hits $5 million. I see mid to high 4 there.

And then, next week — Skyfall. Oh, I can’t fucking wait.

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