Oscars 2012 Update: SAG Award Nominations
The Sag Award nominations were announced yesterday.
I’m kind of liking this, “Doing shit the day after” thing, because it allows me to collect my thoughts on things. (Plus, honestly, I’m working so much that I honestly had no idea they were even announced until like, ten o’clock last night.) So expect the Globes nominations (which were already announced) tomorrow. Since I don’t need to play by no rules.
But anyway, they announced the SAG nominees. These are usually really helpful in predicting the acting categories, since SAG makes up most of the Academy. Though, the Academy group skews older, so it’s usually easier to tell which people won’t get nominated from the SAG list.
But anyway, we have nominees. Who cares about the other shit, those are the most important things we can be talking about right now.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Silver Linings Playbook
My initial reaction to this was, “Man, I wonder how many people are gonna think Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has actual Best Picture chances right now.” No. Just no. Other than that – I expect the other four to show up as locks for Best Picture, so that’s no surprise. The one surprise here to me was that they only nominated five. But I guess SAG only does nominate five. For some reason I think of them as nominating like seven films in this category. Whatever. I assume Silver Linings has this in the bag. Right? If not, then it’s either Lincoln or Les Mis. Though honestly, don’t rule out Marigold Hotel. But, I figure that skews too old for the majority of SAG to vote for it. It’s not like The Help. So I say Silver Linings takes it because that appeals to everyone and has a shitload of other nominated performances. It’s the total package for them. My money’s on that.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight
The one surprise for me was not seeing Joqauin Phoenix here, but honestly – who was he gonna replace? He didn’t make a lot of friends with his two year hoax jaunt thing and John Hawkes has built up a lot of respect in that time. So with the possible switch of Joaquin Phoenix, I expect this to be your Oscar category.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Two things immediately jump out at me here. I’ll preface those two things by saying – this is a weak year for female roles. Though I feel like that’s every year, isn’t it? (Seriously, what the fuck, Hollywood?) Oh, wait – actually three things jump out at me here, now that I think about it. First – I fucking knew the girl from Beasts of the Southern Wild wasn’t getting here. Come on, now, people. She’s five. I’d love to see a five-year old get nominated for Best Actress, but let’s be serious, now. Let her get nominated, but I think people got a little too swept up in the hype there. (No surprise there. Just one of the reasons I haven’t read any Oscar stuff this year.) Second thing – I see Helen Mirren here and that pretty much guarantees a nomination for her. And it’s funny to me, because I just saw that film – it’s gonna be a laughable nomination. Absolutely laughable, if it happens. And I know it’s gonna happen, because who are they gonna vote on instead? Nobody got Anna Karenina, so Keira might not. However – AMPAS has a strong British component and Keira was a surprise nominee in 2005 despite no SAG nomination, so don’t rule it out. Third thing that jumped out at me – Naomi Watts is not really a lead in The Impossible. And yet – because this is the year that it is, I’m gonna vote for her as lead anyway. This is the Oscars. Sometimes category fraud has to be done even though you hate it. Nobody’s pure. It’s like the cop planting evidence. What do you want, the conviction or the guy to go free? I’d rather her than someone else. That said – given how weak the year is, I assume this is gonna look very similar to your Oscar category. Since who else is there? Keira. And the little girl. The French woman from Amour? If SAG didn’t do it, it’s not happening. You need a legit push for that. Rachel Weisz? She didn’t get any major push aside from critics groups. The road to Oscar is paved with shit like that. This is a year I’d want to mostly side with SAG. If the Globes sneak on someone surprising, then I’ll listen a little bit, but mostly I’m gonna go with SAG and BAFTA. They seem to be the best road maps for something like this.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
On an actor level, I fucking love this category. Alan Arkin continues to get nominated for the same part, basically. And I love it. The fact that its him makes it totally okay. I don’t consider it a blank the way I don’t consider the Alan Alda nomination for The Aviator a blank. I love the man, so I’m cool with it. Bardem – I won’t believe it until I see it, Oscar-wise. And that’s not even a negative comment. I just don’t believe it. And I don’t want to jinx anything. I didn’t necessarily think the performance was nomination-worthy, but honestly – it’s an Oscar nomination for a Bond villain performance – bring it the fuck on. I know he won’t win, so I don’t give a fuck. Let it happen. I’d rather him than someone else. De Niro – dude hasn’t been nominated in twenty years. Nice to see him back in the fold. Still need to see the movie, so I can’t comment much except to say – I assume he makes it on stature and film love alone. Hoffman seemed like a lock from day one. Still say Phoenix should get it too. (Adams – meh, take it or leave it. But I’ll get to that – or not, in case you don’t know – in a second.) And Tommy Lee Jones, to me, based on me having seen four of the five performances, wins this motherfucker hands down right now. I’ll also say – when it comes to my nominations here – I’m gonna go outside the box and throw some shit at you nobody’s talking about. But I’ll save it for something better than this article. Also, I’ll tell you now – they’re pushing lead for the kid Tom Holland from The Impossible – but honestly, I think they should push him Supporting the way they pushed Hailee Steinfeld for Supporting. The kid was incredible in that movie and I think he has a much better shot (though he won’t get nominated either way, with these heavy hitters) at Supporting. Let’s also not forget the potential Django nominations here. This is another year with more than enough male performances to go around, and barely any female ones.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
This one is tough as shit. I don’ even know who the fuck I’d nominate. The only other names I’ve seen here are Jacki Weaver and Amy Adams. And I already said – meh on Adams. She doesn’t have much to do in that movie at all, which was a shame, since they could have done so much more with her character. And Weaver, I haven’t seen her movie yet, so I can’t comment. The Kidman nomination seems like one of those SAG things that won’t happen, but I haven’t seen her film yet (but really want to), so I can’t comment. I know they love her, though, so it’s not surprising to see it at all. Maggie Smith – it makes sense. Will it happen? Possibly. There’s no one else. I didn’t think Field was all that great, but the role is what it is, so I have to consider her a lock. And Hathaway is a lock no matter what the performance looks like. I haven’t seen the movie yet, but I’m surprised we’re not looking at two potential nominations in this category form there. But I don’t know. Have to see the movie first. This category is really difficult for me. Gonna have to think long and hard about this one.
And now for the ones nobody cares about, but are fun for guessing….
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Kevin Costner, Hatfield and McCoys
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Ed Harris, Game Change
Clive Owen, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Bill Paxton, Hatfields and McCoys
If there’s one thing I’ve learned about the TV categories, it’s that it’s often about the actors and not the performance. More so with the Globes, but even so. Here – hard to tell who’s gonna get it. I assume Costner is the frontrunner, based on how involved he was in that miniseries, and is the star of it. Woody Harrelson seems like a backup here. Unless Ed Harris is the star of that one. I don’t even know. My gut tells me it’s either Costner or Harrelson.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Julianne Moore, Game Change
Charlotte Rampling, Restless
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias
I’ll tell you flat out – either Julianne Moore or Sigourney Weaver is winning this, and the odds heavily favor Julianne Moore. I don’t think I need to explain myself at all. I’ll make Alfre Woodard the dark horse, but I can’t imagine everyone isn’t gonna vote for Julianne Moore.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damien Lewis, Homeland
I’m with Jeff Daniels all the way here. But this category is always tough. Buscemi’s had this two years running, Hamm is 0-3, as is Cranston. Jeff Daniels is beloved, as is Buscemi, and Homeland is on fire right now. I haven’t seen someone hit the three peat here, so let’s assume either Jeff Daniels or Damien Lewis is winning this. They could go out of left field, though, and give it to Cranston or Hamm, but it would be weird, so late in the shows’ respective runs. But I guess it’s not that weird.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story Asylum
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Margulies won twice in a row before last year, so she’s out. Lange is coming off a win here. Claire Danes, I thought was gonna win last year, and I assume her and Maggie Smith are your frontrunners here. Never seen Downton, so I have no idea about Dockery. But let’s just assume it’s Danes or Smith.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Louis CK, Louie
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Baldwin has won this six years in a row. Six. (Six?) Six. He beat Stonestreet last year and Ty Burrell. Parsons has never been nominated before, and I’m pretty sure the only person that can possibly upset Baldwin is Louie. But you have to assume everyone loves Alec and wants to give him another one of these. Right? Wouldn’t it be funny for them to just give someone an award for every single season they do of a show? Which…
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Sofia Vegara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Betty White has won this two years in a row, beating out Tina Fey, who would have been winning otherwise. No reason to suggest anything different this year. (By the way, this category has been exactly the same for four out of the five nominees – Falco, Fey, Vegara and White – for three years in a row now. The fifth nominee always changes, from Jane Lynch to Julie Bowen to now Amy Poehler. So keep that in mind when making your… “predictions.”) Seriously, how are they not gonna vote for Betty White?
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk is 2 for 2 here so far. I assume it’s between that and Homeland. But everyone loves all of these shows, so who the fuck knows where they’re gonna go? (Though Mad Men only won for its first two seasons and Breaking Bad has never won at all, so if I had to rank the possibilities, I’d say those were in that order somewhere near the bottom.)
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family has won two years running, and unless they’re gonna do the 30 Rock “last season” win (which, is this for this season or last season? I don’t even know), I assume Modern Family still takes it. No reason to get cute.
So those are the SAG nominations. The show is January 27th. I’ll check back in with them January 27th. Tomorrow I’ll go over all the Golden Globe nominations.