Oscars 2012 Update: DGA (Directors Guild) Nominations
The DGA has just announced their nominations.
I’m sure you all know that this is the most accurate predictor for the Oscars there is, the DGA winner having gone on to win the Best Director Oscar all but six times.
And as for the nominees — they’re actually really good about it. Last year, four out of five nominees matched, with David Fincher missing out and Terrence Malick getting on (most likely due to the latter’s Best Picture nomination and the former’s lack of one). 2010, four of five (the DGA had Christopher Nolan and the Oscars had the Coen brothers). 2009, all five. 2008, four of five (Nolan again. They replaced him with Stephen Daldry at the Oscars). 2007, four of five (DGA had Sean Penn, Oscars had Jason Reitman). 2006, only three of five (DGA missed Spielberg and Paul Greengrass in favor of Bill Condon and Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Ferris). 2005, all five. 2004, all five. 2003, four of five (DGA had Gary Ross, Oscars had Fernando Meirelles). 2002, four of five (DGA had Peter Jackson, Oscars had Pedro Almodovar). 2001, three of five (DGA had Baz Luhrmann and Christopher Nolan and the Oscars had Robert Altman and David Lynch). And 2000, four of five (DGA had Cameron Crowe and Oscars had Stephen Daldry).
So basically, they’re gonna get you at least four nominees. And when they do miss, it’s usually because either the Best Picture situation is murky (2006), a foreign director gets on (2003, 2002), really seasoned directors get on (2001), or they just fucking hate one particular director (2010, 2008).
That said, let’s look at this year’s DGA nominees:
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Absolutely no surprise there at all. These are the five we’ve been expecting. The only one that would have been a nice surprise is Quentin Tarantino, but up against Ang Lee, I doubt he was gonna get it.
The big omission here is David O. Russell, which pretty much tells you what chance Silver Linings Playbook actually has at a Best Picture win.
Right now, one of these five is gonna win Best Picture. And you can pretty much narrow that field down to four, because there’s no way it’s gonna be Life of Pi.
I guess this means my vote is gonna have to be Tom Hooper.
Really though, this basically confirmed what were going to be my Best Director picks, which —
Tomorrow is when I make all my guesses about what’s going to be nominated. Today, I talk about what I’d personally nominate for stuff. So today’s about my favorite stuff, and tomorrow’s all about what actually is gonna happen.