2012 Golden Globes Predictions

Tonight is the 70th annual Golden Globe Awards. Also known as the 2012 Golden Globe Awards (and if anyone calls them the 2013 Golden Globes — same as the people who call these the 2013 Oscars — they’re fucking idiots).

I’ve never really had any interest in the Globes outside of enjoying watching them. Since despite what people want to tell you, they basically mean nothing for the Oscars. Mostly they just alter perception. Nobody who votes on them has anything to do with the Oscars, and all it does is get the people who are either too overly tuned into shit or not tuned in at all (so, Oscar people on the internet and the dumbass media, who will turn anything into a story. Maybe of whom are the same people) to be like, “Oh no, this random person won this award, will they win the Oscar?” No. Because the Hollywood Foreign Press loves that person, and it was in the Comedy/Musical category.

So now that they mean nothing to me, Oscar-wise (seriously, the most they do — if the person who’s the favorite to win actually does win here, then it’s added rationalization as to why they’ll win. If they don’t, then they’re the Globes, and nobody cares what they pick. It’s meaningless), they’re kind of fun to watch (pretty much any movie awards show is, as long as not MTV, Kids Choice, or those bullshit ones. You know — the classy ones in January. With real winners. Not Twilight for best movie), and people get rip-roaring drunk at them.

Like I probably will.

Here are my (sort of. If you can call them that) predictions for the Golden Globes:

Best Picture – Drama

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

I don’t actually know which way the Globes are gonna go here. Thinking about it off the top of my head – I’d be surprised (and delighted) if they went for Django, but I don’t see it happening. But I can make a case for all the other nominees. The two that seem least likely are Life of Pi and Zero Dark Thirty. The case for Life of Pi is that it’s kind of an international film, and they like Ang Lee. I could see them going for it, but the thing with that choice is – it’s not gonna chance the race at all. The Globes are meaningless when they go for something that won’t win, and when they go for something that has a shot, then it’s more confirmatory than anything. So… I could see it happening, but I wouldn’t necessarily vote for it. I’d rather take my chances not taking it. Then – Zero Dark Thirty. You can see it. However, they didn’t go for Avatar, and I just don’t think it’s the kind of film they’d go for over the remaining two nominees. I think that film has been a bit overrated, awards-wise (and, probably otherwise). So in that sense, I can actually see them going for Life of Pi over this. But it’s close.

Personally, I think this is between Argo and Lincoln. First, Argo. I think this is a legitimate contender for Best Picture, despite the numbers. It has everything except a Best Director nomination. And I think the most interesting thing that can come out of this awards show is if Argo won their Best Picture. That would be fucking great. Oscar people wouldn’t know what the fuck to do. Plus I actually think they’d vote for it. However – if there’s one thing the Globes love above all else – it’s class. They love a classy movie that feels like an Oscar winner. Atonement won the Globe in 2007. Nobody remembers that, because everyone was on strike and the ceremony wasn’t televised but it did. The Hours won in 2002. They love that shit. I know they went kinda cool the last couple of years, with Social Network and such, but they’ll always go back to the well when they can. Lincoln seems to be your overwhelming favorite here. I can’t see it not being.

If I had to rank the odds of these films winning, I’d say: Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained

I gotta take Lincoln here. It fits their bill too well. But don’t count out Argo. (Or Life of Pi, for that matter.)

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Les Misérables

Moonrise Kingdom

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Silver Linings Playbook

Let’s not waste time here – Les Mis is a huge favorite, and if Silver Linings wins, it means they want to affect the Best Picture race. That’s it. This is the Globes. They go for shit like Les Mis. The fact that it’s all but out of the Best Picture race is meaningless to them. Meaningless. Les Mis is the favorite, then Silver Linings is second choice, then anything else is a bullshit win that has infinitesimal chances of happening. Marigold Hotel we’ll rank as the third choice, then Moonrise and then Salmon Fishing, which has about the same amount of chances as the Cleveland Browns winning the Super Bowl.

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

You have to figure these have the same odds as whoever’s gonna win Best Picture. So you figure Spielberg and Affleck have the most chance at it. Then Lee and Bigelow, and Quentin pulling up the rear. Also, has anyone noticed that, for a group who usually goes for international fare (check out the lesser two nominees in the Comedy/Musical category)… almost all the Best Picture nominees are quintessentially American stories. All of them but Life of Pi.

Oh, also – if anyone but the Best Picture winner doesn’t win this, it’s because they’re giving it to Bigelow to make up for ’09 or Lee because they love him.

Best Actor – Drama

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Richard Gere, Arbitrage

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

If anyone is gonna upset Daniel Day-Lewis here (and keep in mind, he’s basically a mortal lock to win this category), I think it’s Joaquin Phoenix and no one else.

That said, why bother guessing differently? You know what’s gonna happen.

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy

Jack Black, Bernie

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

This is interesting, because I don’t think Hugh Jackman is a 100% lock here.

I think he’s an 80% lock here.

Go with him and let Bradley Cooper beat you. If they decide they love Silver Linings, then Cooper probably has a better shot. Either way, it’s one or the other, and no one else comes close.

They know how to set up categories for the Oscars, so I expect Jackman wins this and people think he has a shot at upsetting Day-Lewis come Oscar night. That seems to be the most likely scenario for the category. Cooper wins and nobody buys an upset. (I know the tide has turned, and Silver Linings is the bigger Best Picture threat now, but still… performance-wise, I think that stands.)

 

Best Actress – Drama

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Even money on Jessica Chastain. The Globes know how to pick their acting categories. Chastain wins this, Lawrence wins Musical/Comedy, the Oscars wonder which one its gonna be. Always happens this way. (Naomi Watts is a distant second, and the rest are pretty irrelevant. Chastain wins this in a landslide.)

Don’t rule out them somehow finding a way to give this to Meryl Streep.

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Maggie Smith, Quartet

Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Lawrence wins in a landslide. It won’t be easy for them, since this category is filled with other people they adore, but they’ll do it, because if there’s one thing the Globes do well, it’s setting up a Drama/Comedy-Musical showdown for categories. Cotillard and Christie both won in ’07, and no one knew what was gonna happen. Happens every goddamn year when the main contenders are split.

Lawrence is basically a lock. Just let the rest beat you.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

This is the most wide open category of the bunch. This is gonna be one that won’t matter now, but it will matter Oscar night, since it’s either gonna be wildly different from what the rest of the precursors do, or it’s gonna be right in line, which either way, tells us something. For tonight – don’t vote for Arkin. Tommy Lee Jones could win on a sweep, but that’s a tough call to make. Hoffman won the BFCA, so a second win here could be huge for him. And then – Leo has bad luck at the Globes, it seems, though they did give him one for The Aviator. And don’t count out a Waltz win here. It could happen. Once his name was announced, I immediately was able to see him winning a second one. Still think it’s unlikely, but – don’t rule it out.

Personally, I’d say Hoffman or Jones are your best bets. That’s just a blind guess. Man, isn’t it great they open with this one, all those shows? (Though actually I think the Globes switched over to Supporting Actress last year, so maybe they’ll make us wait for this.) We’ll know what happens early with this one, which is either gonna be great – a contentious one right off the bat, or it’ll suck, since after that, we mostly know what’s gonna happen. Either way – yeah, probably those two. No idea, though.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Wait, do you actually need me to tell you who’s winning this category?

Best Screenplay

Argo

Django Unchained

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

This one’s pretty open. They might actually go Quentin here. Otherwise, you have both screenplay categories combined, and the actual five most likely nominees to win are here. And since none of these people vote for the Oscars, it’s ultimately meaningless and therefore impossible to pick. You gotta figure… Quentin, the Lincoln sweep and Argo being the likely scenarios here. And if somehow Zero Dark Thirty sweeps, I’d be shocked. I don’t really have a pick, but considering they’ve only given it to Quentin once, and they typically go for the Best Picture type stuff… Lincoln. Or Argo. Whichever is gonna win Best Picture, but still more so Lincoln anyway.

Best Original Score

Argo

Anna Karenina

Cloud Atlas

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Tough call. I’ll say either Anna Karenina or Lincoln. Maybe Life of Pi as a spoiler. Rooting for Cloud Atlas.

 

Best Original Song

“For You,” from Act of Valor

“Not Running Anymore,” from Stand Up Guys

“Safe & Sound,” from The Hunger Games

“Skyfall,” from Skyfall

“Suddenly,” from Les Misérables

Unless they really sell out on Les Mis – come on. Adele. All day, erryday.

 

Best Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

Hotel Transylvania

Rise of the Guardians

Wreck-It Ralph

They’ve given it to Pixar every year but last year. It’s between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph, and since they have a pretty good handle on what wins, I’ll take Wreck-It Ralph, but be aware of the possible Brave victory.

Best Foreign Language Film

Amour

A Royal Affair

The Intouchables

Kon-Tiki

Rust and Bone

One of these films is nominated for Best Picture. The Globes love to be trendy and relevant. It wins, they keep up with the times. It loses, no one gives a shit. Why guess something else?

Best Television Series – Drama

Breaking Bad

Boardwalk Empire

Downton Abbey

Homeland

The Newsroom

I don’t give a fuck about the TV categories, so let’s assume they’ll give it to Downton again. I’m rooting for The Newsroom like a motherfucker, though. But that won’t happen. I know it won’t. It takes them at least a year to jump on the bandwagon (if they jump on at all) unless it’s something like Boardwalk, which was classy to start with.

Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical

The Big Band Theory

Episodes

Girls

Modern Family

Smash

Modern Family owns this, Girls is the second choice. That’s it. One or the other.

Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Damien Lewis, Homeland

Go Jeff Daniels. Pretty sure Buscemi’s won this two years running now. Otherwise, none of the others have won before, despite being nominated a bunch. Except Damien Lewis. He might have a shot unless he loses her. Then he’ll be like Hamm… nominated a bunch without winning. Rooting for Daniels, don’t give a fuck who wins. They’re all great.

Best Actor in a Television Series – Comedy or Musical

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Louis C.K., Louie

Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Has Baldwin ever lost this? I don’t think he has. Maybe once, to Duchovny, if that’s not the SAG I’m thinking of. Either way – Baldwin, then maybe Louis C.K. as a spoiler. Though actually, I think LeBlanc might have won this last year. I don’t fucking know. Keep your TV categories and get them away from me.

Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama

Connie Britton, Nashville

Glenn Close, Damages

Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey

Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife

Marguiles wins a bunch, Danes is liked, Glenn Close seems like the choice they’d go for. Maybe Dockery. Do not care, do not care.

Best Actress in a Television Series – Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Lena Dunham, Girls

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Are they gonna vote for the host? (Either of them?)

Best Mini-Series or TV Movie

Game Change

The Girl

Hatfields & McCoys

The Hour

Political Animals

Hatfields and McCoys is big and classy as shit. Otherwise – don’t care.

Best Actor in a Mini-Series or TV Movie

Kevin Costner, Hatfield & McCoys

Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock

Woody Harrelson, Game Change

Toby Jones, The Girl

Clive Own, Hemingway and Gellhorn

Let’s assume Cumberbatch. Then Costner. Then Jones. Then Harrelson. And oh, wait. I don’t give a fuck.

Best Actress in a Mini-Series or TV Movie

Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum

Sienna Miller, The Girl

Julianne Moore, Game Change

Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals

Really don’t care. Lange again. Why not? Or, actually, Julianne Moore as Palin. Let’s vote for that.

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie

Max Greenfield, New Girl

Ed Harris, Hatfields & McCoys

Danny Houston, Magic City

Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Uhh… monotone?

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie

Hayden Panettiere, Nashville

Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Sarah Paulson, Game Change

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Sofia Vegara, Modern Family

I vote for this article being over right now.

Seriously, I don’t care about the TV stuff at all. And I don’t care how I do on predictions, so I’m not gonna waste time.

The Globes, to me, are like the All Star Game. Most people watch because it’s on and that’s what you do, but otherwise it means nothing and the voting system doesn’t accurately reflect what actual quality is. So you go with what’s there, and you know it doesn’t really matter who wins or whatever because it won’t affect shit (though some people like to think it does). So whatever.

And there’s no Ricky Gervais, so I have even less of an interest in this year’s awards.

But Jodie Foster’s getting the Cecil B. DeMille, so that’s something I’ll be excited to see.

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One response

  1. BlueFox94

    And… (three hours later) “ARGO” is DEFINITELY still in the game :)
    Wonder if the Academy will do something about that… 0_o

    And “BRAVE”, as expected, won Animated Film. Even though it is my “safe choice”, I was still impressed and somewhat moved by it. Still betting on “WRECK-IT RALPH” chances. Kinda getting clear that Tim Burton ain’t getting any sympathy award so far this season via “FRANKENWEENIE” :(

    January 13, 2013 at 8:18 pm

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