2012 Golden Globes Predictions
Tonight is the 70th annual Golden Globe Awards. Also known as the 2012 Golden Globe Awards (and if anyone calls them the 2013 Golden Globes — same as the people who call these the 2013 Oscars — they’re fucking idiots).
I’ve never really had any interest in the Globes outside of enjoying watching them. Since despite what people want to tell you, they basically mean nothing for the Oscars. Mostly they just alter perception. Nobody who votes on them has anything to do with the Oscars, and all it does is get the people who are either too overly tuned into shit or not tuned in at all (so, Oscar people on the internet and the dumbass media, who will turn anything into a story. Maybe of whom are the same people) to be like, “Oh no, this random person won this award, will they win the Oscar?” No. Because the Hollywood Foreign Press loves that person, and it was in the Comedy/Musical category.
So now that they mean nothing to me, Oscar-wise (seriously, the most they do — if the person who’s the favorite to win actually does win here, then it’s added rationalization as to why they’ll win. If they don’t, then they’re the Globes, and nobody cares what they pick. It’s meaningless), they’re kind of fun to watch (pretty much any movie awards show is, as long as not MTV, Kids Choice, or those bullshit ones. You know — the classy ones in January. With real winners. Not Twilight for best movie), and people get rip-roaring drunk at them.
Like I probably will.
Here are my (sort of. If you can call them that) predictions for the Golden Globes:
Best Picture – Drama
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
I don’t actually know which way the Globes are gonna go here. Thinking about it off the top of my head – I’d be surprised (and delighted) if they went for Django, but I don’t see it happening. But I can make a case for all the other nominees. The two that seem least likely are Life of Pi and Zero Dark Thirty. The case for Life of Pi is that it’s kind of an international film, and they like Ang Lee. I could see them going for it, but the thing with that choice is – it’s not gonna chance the race at all. The Globes are meaningless when they go for something that won’t win, and when they go for something that has a shot, then it’s more confirmatory than anything. So… I could see it happening, but I wouldn’t necessarily vote for it. I’d rather take my chances not taking it. Then – Zero Dark Thirty. You can see it. However, they didn’t go for Avatar, and I just don’t think it’s the kind of film they’d go for over the remaining two nominees. I think that film has been a bit overrated, awards-wise (and, probably otherwise). So in that sense, I can actually see them going for Life of Pi over this. But it’s close.
Personally, I think this is between Argo and Lincoln. First, Argo. I think this is a legitimate contender for Best Picture, despite the numbers. It has everything except a Best Director nomination. And I think the most interesting thing that can come out of this awards show is if Argo won their Best Picture. That would be fucking great. Oscar people wouldn’t know what the fuck to do. Plus I actually think they’d vote for it. However – if there’s one thing the Globes love above all else – it’s class. They love a classy movie that feels like an Oscar winner. Atonement won the Globe in 2007. Nobody remembers that, because everyone was on strike and the ceremony wasn’t televised but it did. The Hours won in 2002. They love that shit. I know they went kinda cool the last couple of years, with Social Network and such, but they’ll always go back to the well when they can. Lincoln seems to be your overwhelming favorite here. I can’t see it not being.
If I had to rank the odds of these films winning, I’d say: Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained
I gotta take Lincoln here. It fits their bill too well. But don’t count out Argo. (Or Life of Pi, for that matter.)
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook
Let’s not waste time here – Les Mis is a huge favorite, and if Silver Linings wins, it means they want to affect the Best Picture race. That’s it. This is the Globes. They go for shit like Les Mis. The fact that it’s all but out of the Best Picture race is meaningless to them. Meaningless. Les Mis is the favorite, then Silver Linings is second choice, then anything else is a bullshit win that has infinitesimal chances of happening. Marigold Hotel we’ll rank as the third choice, then Moonrise and then Salmon Fishing, which has about the same amount of chances as the Cleveland Browns winning the Super Bowl.
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
You have to figure these have the same odds as whoever’s gonna win Best Picture. So you figure Spielberg and Affleck have the most chance at it. Then Lee and Bigelow, and Quentin pulling up the rear. Also, has anyone noticed that, for a group who usually goes for international fare (check out the lesser two nominees in the Comedy/Musical category)… almost all the Best Picture nominees are quintessentially American stories. All of them but Life of Pi.
Oh, also – if anyone but the Best Picture winner doesn’t win this, it’s because they’re giving it to Bigelow to make up for ’09 or Lee because they love him.
Best Actor – Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
If anyone is gonna upset Daniel Day-Lewis here (and keep in mind, he’s basically a mortal lock to win this category), I think it’s Joaquin Phoenix and no one else.
That said, why bother guessing differently? You know what’s gonna happen.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
This is interesting, because I don’t think Hugh Jackman is a 100% lock here.
I think he’s an 80% lock here.
Go with him and let Bradley Cooper beat you. If they decide they love Silver Linings, then Cooper probably has a better shot. Either way, it’s one or the other, and no one else comes close.
They know how to set up categories for the Oscars, so I expect Jackman wins this and people think he has a shot at upsetting Day-Lewis come Oscar night. That seems to be the most likely scenario for the category. Cooper wins and nobody buys an upset. (I know the tide has turned, and Silver Linings is the bigger Best Picture threat now, but still… performance-wise, I think that stands.)
Best Actress – Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Even money on Jessica Chastain. The Globes know how to pick their acting categories. Chastain wins this, Lawrence wins Musical/Comedy, the Oscars wonder which one its gonna be. Always happens this way. (Naomi Watts is a distant second, and the rest are pretty irrelevant. Chastain wins this in a landslide.)
Don’t rule out them somehow finding a way to give this to Meryl Streep.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Lawrence wins in a landslide. It won’t be easy for them, since this category is filled with other people they adore, but they’ll do it, because if there’s one thing the Globes do well, it’s setting up a Drama/Comedy-Musical showdown for categories. Cotillard and Christie both won in ’07, and no one knew what was gonna happen. Happens every goddamn year when the main contenders are split.
Lawrence is basically a lock. Just let the rest beat you.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
This is the most wide open category of the bunch. This is gonna be one that won’t matter now, but it will matter Oscar night, since it’s either gonna be wildly different from what the rest of the precursors do, or it’s gonna be right in line, which either way, tells us something. For tonight – don’t vote for Arkin. Tommy Lee Jones could win on a sweep, but that’s a tough call to make. Hoffman won the BFCA, so a second win here could be huge for him. And then – Leo has bad luck at the Globes, it seems, though they did give him one for The Aviator. And don’t count out a Waltz win here. It could happen. Once his name was announced, I immediately was able to see him winning a second one. Still think it’s unlikely, but – don’t rule it out.
Personally, I’d say Hoffman or Jones are your best bets. That’s just a blind guess. Man, isn’t it great they open with this one, all those shows? (Though actually I think the Globes switched over to Supporting Actress last year, so maybe they’ll make us wait for this.) We’ll know what happens early with this one, which is either gonna be great – a contentious one right off the bat, or it’ll suck, since after that, we mostly know what’s gonna happen. Either way – yeah, probably those two. No idea, though.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Wait, do you actually need me to tell you who’s winning this category?
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
This one’s pretty open. They might actually go Quentin here. Otherwise, you have both screenplay categories combined, and the actual five most likely nominees to win are here. And since none of these people vote for the Oscars, it’s ultimately meaningless and therefore impossible to pick. You gotta figure… Quentin, the Lincoln sweep and Argo being the likely scenarios here. And if somehow Zero Dark Thirty sweeps, I’d be shocked. I don’t really have a pick, but considering they’ve only given it to Quentin once, and they typically go for the Best Picture type stuff… Lincoln. Or Argo. Whichever is gonna win Best Picture, but still more so Lincoln anyway.
Best Original Score
Life of Pi
Tough call. I’ll say either Anna Karenina or Lincoln. Maybe Life of Pi as a spoiler. Rooting for Cloud Atlas.
Best Original Song
“For You,” from Act of Valor
“Not Running Anymore,” from Stand Up Guys
“Safe & Sound,” from The Hunger Games
“Skyfall,” from Skyfall
“Suddenly,” from Les Misérables
Unless they really sell out on Les Mis – come on. Adele. All day, erryday.
Best Animated Feature
Rise of the Guardians
They’ve given it to Pixar every year but last year. It’s between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph, and since they have a pretty good handle on what wins, I’ll take Wreck-It Ralph, but be aware of the possible Brave victory.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Royal Affair
Rust and Bone
One of these films is nominated for Best Picture. The Globes love to be trendy and relevant. It wins, they keep up with the times. It loses, no one gives a shit. Why guess something else?
Best Television Series – Drama
I don’t give a fuck about the TV categories, so let’s assume they’ll give it to Downton again. I’m rooting for The Newsroom like a motherfucker, though. But that won’t happen. I know it won’t. It takes them at least a year to jump on the bandwagon (if they jump on at all) unless it’s something like Boardwalk, which was classy to start with.
Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical
The Big Band Theory
Modern Family owns this, Girls is the second choice. That’s it. One or the other.
Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damien Lewis, Homeland
Go Jeff Daniels. Pretty sure Buscemi’s won this two years running now. Otherwise, none of the others have won before, despite being nominated a bunch. Except Damien Lewis. He might have a shot unless he loses her. Then he’ll be like Hamm… nominated a bunch without winning. Rooting for Daniels, don’t give a fuck who wins. They’re all great.
Best Actor in a Television Series – Comedy or Musical
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Has Baldwin ever lost this? I don’t think he has. Maybe once, to Duchovny, if that’s not the SAG I’m thinking of. Either way – Baldwin, then maybe Louis C.K. as a spoiler. Though actually, I think LeBlanc might have won this last year. I don’t fucking know. Keep your TV categories and get them away from me.
Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama
Connie Britton, Nashville
Glenn Close, Damages
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife
Marguiles wins a bunch, Danes is liked, Glenn Close seems like the choice they’d go for. Maybe Dockery. Do not care, do not care.
Best Actress in a Television Series – Comedy
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Lena Dunham, Girls
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Are they gonna vote for the host? (Either of them?)
Best Mini-Series or TV Movie
Hatfields & McCoys
Hatfields and McCoys is big and classy as shit. Otherwise – don’t care.
Best Actor in a Mini-Series or TV Movie
Kevin Costner, Hatfield & McCoys
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Toby Jones, The Girl
Clive Own, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Let’s assume Cumberbatch. Then Costner. Then Jones. Then Harrelson. And oh, wait. I don’t give a fuck.
Best Actress in a Mini-Series or TV Movie
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
Sienna Miller, The Girl
Julianne Moore, Game Change
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
Really don’t care. Lange again. Why not? Or, actually, Julianne Moore as Palin. Let’s vote for that.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Ed Harris, Hatfields & McCoys
Danny Houston, Magic City
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Sarah Paulson, Game Change
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Sofia Vegara, Modern Family
I vote for this article being over right now.
Seriously, I don’t care about the TV stuff at all. And I don’t care how I do on predictions, so I’m not gonna waste time.
The Globes, to me, are like the All Star Game. Most people watch because it’s on and that’s what you do, but otherwise it means nothing and the voting system doesn’t accurately reflect what actual quality is. So you go with what’s there, and you know it doesn’t really matter who wins or whatever because it won’t affect shit (though some people like to think it does). So whatever.
And there’s no Ricky Gervais, so I have even less of an interest in this year’s awards.
But Jodie Foster’s getting the Cecil B. DeMille, so that’s something I’ll be excited to see.