Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards Predictions
Tonight is the SAG Awards.
In terms of the Oscars, the place the SAG Awards have the most weight (obviously) is with the acting categories.
Most of the time (I’ll go over the numbers when I get to the categories), whoever wins SAG is a good bet to go on and win the Oscar.
So really that’s what this article is gonna be about. The predictions are just here because I needed an article to go up today.
So here are my predictions for tonight’s SAG Awards:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Silver Linings Playbook
Most people equate this with Best Picture. Don’t. Here are your past winners:
2011: The Help
2010: The King’s Speech
2009: Inglourious Basterds
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2007: No Country for Old Men
2006: Little Miss Sunshine
2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2001: Gosford Park
1999: American Beauty
1998: Shakespeare in Love
1997: The Full Monty
1996: The Birdcage
1995: Apollo 13
Typically, while they do go for some Best Picture films, a lot of this is clearly, “Biggest assortment of great actors/ensemble performances/great performances.” These are either true ensemble films, or they had a bunch of people nominated for them.
Which is why your winner here is almost definitely gonna be either Argo, Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook.
If I had to rank them, I’d say Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln then Argo.
Silver Linings had actors nominated in all four acting categories. Who do you think nominated those people?
Lincoln has a cast that’s SAG’s wet dream. Those two should be neck and neck right now.
If Argo does win (since it is also an ensemble), then you might be able to close that Best Picture race right now.
Les Mis does have a shot, but something tells me SAG isn’t gonna go that way.
And Marigold Hotel is lucky to be nominated.
Right now, I’m going with Silver Linings as my guess, and Lincoln as my, “Well that was the other choice.” If Argo wins, it means something, if the other two win, it’s meaningless.
I’m kind of rooting for Les Mis as a symbol of, “Well, they sang live, that’s nice.” I know they won’t do it, but it would be nice to see.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight
Now we get into the big deals.
Here are your previous winners:
2011: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
2010: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2009: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
2008: Sean Penn, Milk
2007: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2006: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman, capote
2004: Jamie Foxx, Ray
2003: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
2002: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
2001: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
2000: Benicio del Toro, Traffic
1999: Kevin Spacey, American Beauty
1998: Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful
1997: Jack Nicholson, As Good as It Gets
1996: Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1995: Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
1994: Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump
So, for those who know the Oscars, only four times has the SAG winner not also won Best Actor.
One of them won Supporting Actor instead, so that’s kind of a wash.
The other three — one of them is Daniel Day-Lewis. (Plus Adrien Brody shocked everyone.)
The other two — Denzel beats Russell Crowe, amidst allegations of racism, Russell Crowe’s not-so-nice behavior at the time and the fact that he won the year before.
The other one — Johnny Depp. I can’t explain it, but I love it.
That said, it’s almost always right, never go against SAG.
If Daniel Day-Lewis wins this (and I fully expect him to), then he’s more than a mortal lock to win Best Actor.
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One thing to keep in mind before we continue — SAG has a crazy amount of people in it. The Oscars have an acting body of about 3,000? Something like that. Between 2,000 and 3,000, I didn’t check the numbers this year. It’s more concentrated with veterans and Brits. So when you see younger people nominated at SAG (not necessarily win, but nominated), that’s usually the younger contingent of SAG doing the voting. So do keep in mind that the Oscars skew older and have a stronger BAFTA contingency than SAG does. (That’s how Gary Oldman got on last year and how some of the Supporting races turned out the way they did, which I’ll get to in a bit.)
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Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Here are your previous winners:
2011: Viola Davis, The Help
2010: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2009: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
2008: Meryl Streep, Doubt
2007: Julie Christie, Away from Her
2006: Helen Mirren, The Queen
2005: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2004: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2003: Charlize Theron, Monster
2002: Renée Zellweger, Chicago
2001: Halle Berry, Monsters Ball
2000: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
1999: Annette Bening, American Beauty
1998: Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
1997: Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets
1996: Frances McDormand, Fargo
1995: Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking
1994: Jodie Foster, Nell
So not quite the beacon of certitude as Best Actor, but we’re still gonna listen to it anyway, so it doesn’t matter.
The ones they had wrong were —
Last year, Meryl beat Viola. That… maybe I won’t speculate as to all the reasons I think factored into that one. (For now, let’s just call it, Harvey. Though I’m sure race factored into that one.)
2008 — Kate beats Meryl. Mostly because Kate won Supporting for SAG, so that was kind of a wash, since there was that whole weird category fraud thing going on there. (Also, Harvey again.)
2007 — Marion beats Julie in a really tight race. Can’t fault them for that one.
2002 — Nicole beats Renée. Technically not Harvey, since they were both his horses. But it seems pretty clear that they campaigned like a motherfucker for Nicole, since she was definitely a supporting role in that movie.
1999 — Still not sure how Hilary beats Annette there. Annette should have won that all the way. I wasn’t following the Oscars back then (being 11), so I don’t know what the deal was (nor do I really care).
1994 — Jodie gave the best performance, but Jessica was overdue and Jodie had won twice in the past seven years. So I get it.
So they’ve been off six times here in Best Actress. Actually not as bad as I was thinking, since one of them is a category deal, so it’s five times and an asterisk. Still two more than Best Actor.
It’s harder to call a Best Actress win from SAG. But if Jessica Chastain wins, then people will be calling one, out of a foolish notion that the Golden Globes truly matter (also — Jennifer Lawrence won that too). I — I actually kind of see Chastain taking this. It’s between the two.
I think Chastain wins this, and I still kind of like Jennifer Lawrence for the Oscar. Chastain seems to be more in favor with the veterans. She just feels like someone the veteran actors are gonna love, whereas Lawrence seems more someone the younger crowd is gonna like.
I don’t know, I keep thinking (subjectivity aside) that Chastain has the fast track to the win more than Lawrence does. So I’m thinking she wins here.
Lawrence is the second choice (the win for her would be huge. If she wins this, I don’t know if Chastain can win the Oscar, given all the criticism of the film and all that), and there is no third choice. (P.S. Shocked, if Naomi Watts wins.)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
This is your Oscar category with Waltz instead of Bardem, which, I figured a Django nominee was gonna get in.
This one is really tough to call. Hoffman seems to be the favorite based on the (mostly meaningless) Globe win, but this category changes drastically with a win by any of these people (not Bardem, obviously).
I say Hoffman and Jones are your favorites. De Niro would shock me, but maybe they just want to give it to him.
I’ve felt like Hoffman was your clubhouse leader all along. His character/performance just felt like one they’d vote for.
I’d like to vote for Jones, but I’ll stick with Hoffman. Why not?
I’ll deal with how close they are tomorrow. This is one we’d rather find out about after we know who won.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
And the final category that matters — Anne Hathaway. The end. I won’t even go into how close they are until tomorrow, with the recap. It’s meaningless. We know who’s winning. Everyone else is a shocker, and it’s better to deal with how close they are afterward.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Kevin Costner, Hatfield and McCoys
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Ed Harris, Game Change
Clive Owen, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Bill Paxton, Hatfields and McCoys
These categories I don’t care about, but we’ll guess anyway.
I’d say Costner (if he’s still alive after that morose speech he gave at the Globes. I hope he didn’t off himself), but SAG does weird things. I’d say him or Ed Harris.
Costner seems most likely. I’ll vote for him.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Julianne Moore, Game Change
Charlotte Rampling, Restless
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias
Julianne Moore. My vote, probable winner. The end.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damien Lewis, Homeland
You’d think Damien Lewis, but I’m rooting for Jeff Daniels all the way. Go Jeff!
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story Asylum
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Oooh, this is exciting. Lange, Maggie or Claire. Let’s vote Maggie. We all love Maggie.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Sofia Vegara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Isn’t this the annual Betty White award?
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boo. I refuse to vote.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family. It’s winning.
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We’ll deal with the winners tomorrow and I’ll write more in depth. This was just to get something up today. I’ll be honest. I didn’t try at all here.