Oscars 2012 Update: Screen Actors Guild Awards
Last night was the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
It consistently remains one of the best Oscar precursors and one of the worst awards shows. God, it’s so boring. They speed through two hours and there’s no fun in it. It’s ridiculous. That’s the joy of these shows. Letting everybody get drunk and ramble and have fun.
But anyway, we’re not here for the show, we’re here for the results. This show really started cementing in the probable outcomes for the Oscars.
So let’s take a look at the winners of the 19th annual Screen Actors Guild Awards…
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Silver Linings Playbook
That, my friends, is a BIG deal. It has the PGA, SAG, the Globe (less meaningful, but perception-wise, it helps), the BFCA — it has every single precursor you can get. (Then again, so did Apollo 13. Its director wasn’t nominated for Best Director either…) If this thing wins the DGA this weekend, then you can call that shit right now. (We’ll also monitor the WGA in a few weeks.)
However, given Lincoln‘s sum total of nominations and probable wins, and Silver Linings Playbook‘s solid nominations total — we’re still gonna consider this a three-way race for Best Picture. But the tide is certainly tipped in Argo‘s favor right now. This award was something Silver Linings Playbook should have won easily. It’s one Lincoln could have won easily. But neither did. So that’s a big statement. Argo has support from everyone.
And just to recap, here’s the list of previous winners and how they matched up to the Oscars:
SAG Best Ensemble Winner Best Picture Winner
2011: The Help The Artist
2010: The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
2009: Inglourious Basterds The Hurt Locker
2008: Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
2007: No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men
2006: Little Miss Sunshine The Departed
2005: Crash Crash
2004: Sideways Million Dollar Baby
2003: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Return of the King
2002: Chicago Chicago
2001: Gosford Park A Beautiful Mind
2000: Traffic Gladiator
1999: American Beauty American Beauty
1998: Shakespeare in Love Shakespeare in Love
1997: The Full Monty Titanic
1996: The Birdcage The English Patient
1995: Apollo 13 Braveheart
So all this win really means is that the actors like Argo a lot. Which is a big deal only when you put it next to all the other big wins for Argo. Right now, that’s your favorite. Lincoln is gonna remain there because it’s the obvious choice, and Silver Linings Playbook is gonna remain there because it’s the only other film with the most widespread support. (You can also say Life of Pi, but I don’t think any of us truly think that film is gonna do anything except win a couple of technical awards like Visual Effects and Score and stuff. Maybe Lee upsets for Director, since that category is the big wild card this year, but other than that, do we really think it has a play for it all?)
So that’s what we need to take out of this.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
This basically means no one beats Daniel Day-Lewis. Not that we thought anyone could, but — a win by Jackman or Cooper could have made it interesting for a second. Now — not happening.
One thing I did take out of this, though, was that when I saw the clip they chose for Cooper when they announced the nominees, it reminded me of just how good Cooper’s performance was.
This is such a great Oscar category. I don’t even care that Day-Lewis is gonna win. The category is just incredible.
Here are the previous winners. I’ll mention which ones didn’t win the Oscar, not that it matters. We already know how this is turning out:
2011: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
2010: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2009: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
2008: Sean Penn, Milk
2007: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2006: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2004: Jamie Foxx, Ray
2003: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Sean Penn won the Oscar for Mystic River.)
2002: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York (Adrien Brody won the Oscar for The Pianist.)
2001: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind (Denzel won the Oscar for Training Day.)
2000: Benicio del Toro, Traffic (Russell Crowe won the Oscar for Gladiator. Benicio won Supporting.)
1999: Kevin Spacey, American Beauty
1998: Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful
1997: Jack Nicholson, As Good as It Gets
1996: Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1995: Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
1994: Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump
The track record doesn’t lie. Day-Lewis has it in the bag. When he wins BAFTA, then it’s a 100% lock. There’s really only two upsets in SAG/Oscar history here. Depp is a meaningless win, since we knew he wasn’t winning the Oscar, and del Toro won Supporting, so that’s a different discrepancy entirely. It’s really just ’01 and ’02.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
This surprised me. For the better. I wasn’t totally sold on Chastain winning. I’m still not totally sold that Chastain doesn’t win, but at this point, it seems like the Oscar is Lawrence’s to lose. And her speech last night was so terrific — that was an Oscar speech. That shit goes a long way with voters. She’s your big favorite here, but it’s not in the bag yet, just because this category has a strong track record, but not an impeccable one:
2011: Viola Davis, The Help (Meryl won the Oscar for The Iron Lady.)
2010: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2009: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
2008: Meryl Streep, Doubt (Kate Winslet won the Oscar for The Reader. She won SAG Supporting.)
2007: Julie Christie, Away from Her (Marion Cotillard won the Oscar for La Vie en Rose.)
2006: Helen Mirren, The Queen
2005: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2004: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2003: Charlize Theron, Monster
2002: Renée Zellweger, Chicago (Nicole Kidman won the Oscar for The Hours.)
2001: Halle Berry, Monsters Ball
2000: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
1999: Annette Bening, American Beauty (Hilary Swank won the Oscar for Boys Don’t Cry.)
1998: Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
1997: Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets
1996: Frances McDormand, Fargo
1995: Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking
1994: Jodie Foster, Nell (Jessica Lange won the Oscar for Blue Sky.)
So they differed six times of 18. That’s only a 2/3 percentage at the moment. However, the Winslet one is a wash, since she won, but in a different category. Last year was an upset, 2007 was a tight race, 2002 was probably an upset, 1999 was an upset, and 1994 was — I’m not entirely sure what it was, but it makes sense.
So basically, this race is somewhere between a tight race and an upset. Since a lot of people felt Chastain was doing well, but I’ve really only seen Jennifer Lawrence do well recently. But I guess it’s been pretty back and forth, so we can still consider it a tight race. Chastain won BFCA, Lawrence won SAG, they both won the Globe. But, I remember when I looked at BFCA — they have a problem with the tight ones. I’m leaning toward SAG here. But — I feel like BAFTA leans more toward Chastain, so I think this remains a tight race and still would not be surprised to hear her name called on the night.
At this point, I’d be shocked to see Riva, Wallis or Watt’s names called. I think it’s them too.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Winner: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
This race has been all over the place. Hoffman won the BFCA, Waltz won the Globe, and now Jones won this.
2011: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2010: Christian Bale, The Fighter
2009: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
2008: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2007: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2006: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls (Alan Arkin won the Oscar for Little Miss Sunshine.)
2005: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (George Clooney won the Oscar for Syriana.)
2004: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
2003: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
2002: Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can (Chris Cooper won the Oscar for Adaptation.)
2001: Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (Jim Broadbent won the Oscar for Iris.)
2000: Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich (Benicio del Toro won the Oscar for Traffic. He won Best Actor for SAG.)
1999: Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules
1998: Robert Duvall, A Civil Action (James Coburn won the Oscar for Affliction.)
1997: Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting
1996: Cuba Gooding, Jr., Jerry Maguire
1995: Ed Harris, Apollo 13 (Kevin Spacey won the Oscar for The Usual Suspects.)
1994: Martin Landau, Ed Wood
They missed 7/18 so far. One of them is the Benicio thing, so really 6 that are the problem ones.
Eddie Murphy losing was a huge upset. Veteran win, but still — Murphy won all the precursors.
Giamatti losing was also an upset.
Walken losing wasn’t really an upset, since I don’t think he won much else but SAG that year.
McKellen losing was — I don’t know. That one was all over the place.
The Duvall/Coburn one — meh. Veteran win.
Ed Harris and Spacey seem to have split a lot of the precursors.
So — I don’t know how much this means. But I guess we have to make Jones the tentative favorite here. SAG counts for a lot, the Oscar swing usually goes in favor of a veteran, and his character is one that lends itself most to a win. Loud, grumpy abolitionist who has to compromise his beliefs and also is secretly a softy with a black wife. He has a full arc, steals scenes (from the Best Actor winner), and has everything going for him. De Niro has the character arc, but not the flashiness of the performance that Jones has. And Hoffman has both of those going for him, but not the SAG win. It’s gonna be interesting. The entire category is full of winners.
At this point, if I had to rate the potential for people to win, it’s: Jones, then Hoffman, then De Niro, then Waltz, then Arkin.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Winner: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
2011: Octavia Spencer, The Help
2010: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2009: Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
2008: Kate Winslet, The Reader (Penelope Cruz won the Oscar. Kate won Best Actress.)
2007: Ruby Dee, American Gangster (Tilda Swinton won the Oscar for Michael Clayton.)
2006: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2005: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
2004: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
2003: Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain
2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
2001: Helen Mirren, Gosford Park (Jennifer Connelly won the Oscar for A Beautiful Mind. She was nominated for SAG Best Actress for that.)
2000: Judi Dench, Chocolat (Marcia Gay Harden won the Oscar for Pollock.)
1999: Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
1998: Kathy Bates, Primary Colors (Judi Dench won the Oscar for Shakespeare in Love.)
1997: Gloria Stuart, Titanic & Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential
1996: Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces (Juliette Binoche won the Oscar for The English Patient.)
1995: Kate Winslet, Sense and Sensibility (Mira Sorvino won the Oscar for Mighty Aphrodite.)
1994: Dianne Wiest, Bullets Over Broadway
They’ve missed six times, two of them were category deals. So — four. And of the four —
Ruby Dee, veteran SAG and tight category.
Judi Dench, veteran and tight category.
Kathy Bates, veteran and weird category.
Lauren Bacall, veteran and major upset on Oscar night.
Kate Winslet — not sure what happened there.
Either way, I think you can tell that not only is Anne Hathaway a mortal lock, but this category is a really strong indicator of who’s going to win.
She’s going to win. This and Best Actor — they’ve been decided since before nominations were announced. You know they have.
Okay, now for the categories I don’t care about…
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Kevin Costner, Hatfield and McCoys
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Ed Harris, Game Change
Clive Owen, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Bill Paxton, Hatfields and McCoys
Winner: Kevin Costner
He was the obvious choice. I also loved that he wasn’t there. It’s fitting after that Globes speech. I think he might have offed himself.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Julianne Moore, Game Change
Charlotte Rampling, Restless
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias
Winner: Julianne Moore
No surprise. She played Palin. This was easy as shit to guess.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damien Lewis, Homeland
Winner: Bryan Cranston
He’d never won this, so it was nice to see him win. Not that it matters who won this one, since I like all of these actors.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story Asylum
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Winner: Claire Danes
No surprise. Everyone loves her. Lange won last year, Margulies won the two before that. Means nothing, but I felt I should mention.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actress in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Louis C.K., Louie
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Winner: Alec Baldwin
Seven in a row. No joke. He’s won for every season of this show. If you thought this was a surprise, stop guessing awards shows.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Sofia Vegara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Winner: Tina Fey
The show is ending on Thursday. I did not know this. That might have changed my guess. She also won the three before Betty White won the last two.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Winner: Downton Abbey
Not really a surprise. But either way, none of these would be surprises. Boardwalk took the last two, and Mad Men took the two before that. So it seems like this is winning next year, too.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Winner: Modern Family
Three years running for this. No surprise.
– – – – – – – – – –
So those were the SAG Awards.
What did we get out of them?
Argo is a solid favorite for Best Picture.
Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway will win the Oscars. (Until they don’t. But what idiot would vote against them at this point?)
Jennifer Lawrence is now your Best Actor favorite.
Tommy Lee Jones takes a slight lead in the Supporting Actor race.
Nice. That makes things easy. Now all we gotta do is start seeing what the guilds do to figure out how we’re gonna vote in the technical races. That’s the meat and potatoes of Oscar night anyway. That’s where you get your good tally up. Get the sound categories and makeup and costumes and stuff. That’s the difference between getting 16/24 and 20/24. So that’s the shit we’ll need to focus on over the next month. Otherwise you’re just rearranging an already made setpiece. We know this shit. Nothing changes here over the next month.
But that’s good, though.
One less thing.