Oscars 2013 Update: BFCA Awards

The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their awards last night.

I don’t even think I wrote up the nominations this year. Not sure how I missed that one.

I also didn’t write these winners up immediately because I just discovered the show Orphan Black. So I guess we can say some good actually did come out of the Golden Globes.

Anyway, here are the BFCA winners. I’ll try to go over if they mean anything or not:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Saving Mr. Banks

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Those are your nominees.

Before we get into the winner, let’s look at how helpful and not helpful they are.

They nominate 10 pictures every year, so they’re gonna get most of them right. And they’re also the group that compiles the most popular stuff, so they’re gonna have everything.

This year, what this list told us was that people really liked Dallas Buyers Club. But it also tells us that Saving Mr. Banks is likely to be a Best Picture nominee. They don’t even have Philomena on there. So you can’t really count on them. Because they’re going to have the helpful and the not helpful.

That said, the thing people do say they’re helpful for is seeing which film is going to win Best Picture. Let’s see.

Here are the BFCA’s winners for Best Picture:

2012: Argo; 2011: The Artist; 2010, The Social Network; 2009, The Hurt Locker; 2008, Slumdog Millionaire; 2007, No Country for Old Men; 2006, The Departed; 2005, Brokeback Mountain; 2004, Sideways; 2003, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; 2002, Chicago; 2001, A Beautiful Mind; 2000, Gladiator; 1999, American Beauty; 1998, Saving Private Ryan; 1997, L.A. Confidential; 1996, Fargo; 1995, Sense and Sensibility.

So, basically, they either get it right or they pretty much have the film that either most people agree is the better movie or they have the critical trendy choice. The Social Network was both. Brokeback Mountain was both. Sideways was probably both, but I hated that. Saving Private Ryan was probably both. L.A. Confidential was probably both. Fargo had to be both. And Sense and Sensibility — no idea. People love that movie.

Either way, they’re pretty accurate. And when they are different, it’s clear that the Academy is going their own way because that’s what they go for. The King’s Speech, Crash, Million Dollar Baby, Shakespeare in Love, Titanic, The English Patient, Braveheart — almost all of these were controversial decisions. The King’s Speech was a film no one thought should win, but it’s a film that we all knew was going to win. Crash — we know that. Million Dollar Baby — I think we assumed it was going to win, but that was almost like The King’s Speech, where we held out hope another film was going to beat it, even though momentum told us it was in the bag. Shakespeare in Love — before my time, but I’m guessing it was a bit similar.

Anyway, what I’m saying is — it’s not a guarantee that the Oscars will follow suit to what BFCA does. It’s really the PGA you have to pay attention to. And in these years — they had The King’s Speech, Titanic, The English Patient. The only ones they got wrong along with BFCA were Brokeback Mountain, The Aviator (which tells me that one was wide open), Saving Private Ryan and Apollo 13 (which was another one of those sort of three-handed races, it seems. Where critics preferred Sense and SensibilityApollo 13 was the film to beat, and Braveheart came on late to sneak in a win).

So yeah, that’s the deal. That said…

Winner: 12 Years a Slave

That makes sense. It means American Hustle is your frontrunner, and will probably win, but 12 Years a Slave will be the film that most people think should have won. I’ll see where the PGA goes on Sunday, but for now, this makes sense.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

Spike Jonze, Her

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

The DGA is the only thing that really matters here.

But for what it’s worth, the BFCA has only missed Best Director three times. Ever. 2002, they gave it to Spielberg for Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can. 2004, Scorsese won for The Aviator. And 2010, Fincher won for Social Network.

So they pretty much have a pulse on the category.

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

No shock there. We all assume he’s gonna win this no matter which way Best Picture goes.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Here’s where I have a fundamental disagreement with the people who think the BFCA matters. They nominated six people here, and these are six people that most people would agree with. So to me, this comes off like the IMDB Top 250 version of an awards show. In a way, I prefer the Oscars. Since at least there, it’s hard decisions and you can argue them. Here, it’s like, “Hey, everybody gets a medal!” And they vote for what they think is going to win. It seems.

Anyway, here’s their track record:

They missed 2011, going Clooney over Dujardin. 2002, going Daniel Day-Lewis. Brody wasn’t even nominated there. 2001, they went Russell Crowe. Denzel wasn’t even nominated. (Those last two — barely categories.) And most of their 90s are misses, since they didn’t really start going with the full category things until 2003.

That said — they’re pretty accurate. And considering…

Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

I think this one’s pretty much a done deal, and we’re waiting on SAG to lock it in place.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Brie Larson, Short Term 12

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

See, they go the populist opinion (Brie Larson), and the one we thought was the Oscar opinion (Emma Thompson). How can I take them seriously?

Anyway, here’s how they went:

Last year, they went Jessica Chastain. 2011, they went Viola Davis. 2009 and 2008, there were ties. 2008, neither woman won (because the winner was nominated in the Supporting Actress category). 2007, they went Julie Christie. 2002, they went Julianne Moore. 2001, they went Sissy Spacek. And we’ll skip the 90s, since it’s established they weren’t quite there yet. It’s like the double-yeared Oscar years.

So, they’re not that accurate, honestly. Unless the category is pretty much locked.

Which, this year, it seems like it is.

Winner: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

SAG will confirm, but I’m guessing this is your eventual winner.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Daniel Brühl, Rush

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

No Jonah Hill. Like I said. Piling onto the populist opinion.

They missed last year, going Philip Seymour Hoffman, 2006, going Eddie Murphy, 2005, going Paul Giamatti, 2004, going Thomas Haden Church, 2001, going Ben Kingsley, and 2000, going Joaquin Phoenix. And then the 90s. So, again, populist opinion but not necessarily accurate.

This year:

Winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

He’s been winning everything in sight. If he wins SAG, it seems pretty locked.

Best Supporting Actress

Scarlett Johansson, Her

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

This one — 2008, Winslet went Supporting. Fucked everything up. 2007, they went Amy Ryan. Though to be fair, that one came right down to the wire. 2005, Amy Adams and Michelle Williams tied, and Rachel Wesiz walked away with the Oscar. 2004, they went Virginia Madsen. 2000, they went Frances McDormand.

So, mostly, they’re pretty good here. And, all things considered with this category:

Winner: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

I expect she’s your frontrunner. Not sure SAG will go for her, but if they do, that’s a big deal. For now, this makes sense.

Best Acting Ensemble

American Hustle

August: Osage County

The Butler

Nebraska

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

I don’t even need to look.

Winner: American Hustle

Like we didn’t know that was coming.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Oh look, Llewyn Davis. What a novelty.

Winner: Her

I really hope this takes Screenplay.

I feel like they won’t actually do it, but then again, I didn’t think they’d go Quentin last year. So I might end up being very happily surprised with this.

Here’s hoping.

Best Adapted Screenplay

August: Osage County

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Again, don’t even need to look.

Winner: 12 Years a Slave

It’s winning. We all know this.

Best Editing

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Rush

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Don’t even need to bother. I know.

Winner: Gravity

It’s winning the Oscar.

We’re all gonna do well this year.

Best Cinematography

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Prisoners

12 Years a Slave

If it wins here too, then the Oscar is totally locked.

Winner: Gravity

Yup. It ain’t losing. They’ve been going this type of cinematography the last 4 years.

Best Score

Gravity

Her

Saving Mr. Banks

12 Years a Slave

Winner: Gravity

I assume that’ll win at the Oscars as well. But I can’t think about this one. It’s barely a category.

Best Song

“Happy,” from Despicable Me 2

“Let It Go,” from Frozen

“Young and Beautiful,” from The Great Gatsby

“Atlas,” from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

“Please Mr. Kennedy,” from Inside Llewyn Davis

“Ordinary Love,” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Please.

Winner: “Let It Go,” from Frozen

I repeat my previous statement.

Best Art Direction

The Great Gatsby

Her

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Gravity

12 Years a Slave

I think we know.

Winner: The Great Gatsby

It should.

Best Costume Design

American Hustle

The Great Gatsby

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

12 Years a Slave

Saving Mr. Banks

Again, it should.

Winner: The Great Gatsby

The Oscars are a totally different thing, but they are going with what most of us either think will win or should win. Or both. So that’s something. I guess. Still not something I can use as concrete, though.

Best Makeup

American Hustle

The Hobbit: 12 Years a Slave

12 Years a Slave

Irrelevant. None of these are nominated.

But I know what won regardless.

Winner: American Hustle

Yup.

Best Visual Effects

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Iron Man 3

Pacific Rim

Star Trek Into Darkness

I hope they went way off, just for shits and giggles.

Winner: Gravity

Shock of the night.

Best Animated Feature

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Frozen

Monsters University

The Wind Rises

Already know.

Winner: Frozen

It should win.

Best Foreign Language Film

Blue Is the Warmest Color

The Great Beauty

The Hunt

The Past

Wadjda

Wow. Imagine if they redid the voting process for this category. This actually could be the Oscar category.

But yeah, they went France.

Winner: Blue Is the Warmest Color

That’s the beauty about this. They’re easy to pick. You know which way they’re gonna go every time.

Best Documentary Feature

The Act of Killing

Blackfish

Stories We Tell

Tim’s Vermeer

20 Feet from Stardom

Winner: 20 Feet from Stardom

We could have an upset here.

Not that I’m assuming The Act of Killing is going to win, but it’s clearly one or the other, you’d think.

Maybe they’ll stay light and go that way. I haven’t seen it yet. I can’t say.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Asa Butterfield, Ender’s Game

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color

Liam James, The Way Way Back

Sophie Nelisse, The Book Thief

Tye Sheridan, Mud

Winner: Adele Exarchopoulos.

Sure.

Best Action Movie

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Iron Man 3

Lone Survivor

Rush

Star Trek Into Darkness

Winner: Lone Survivor

These are the bullshit categories.

Best Actor in an Action Movie

Henry Cavill, Man of Steel

Robert Downey, Jr., Iron Man 3

Brad Pitt, World War Z

Mark Wahlberg, Lone Survivor

Winner: Mark Wahlberg, Lone Survivor

Essentially they’re going with the classy nominees in these categories.

Best Actress in an Action Movie

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Evangeline Lilly, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Gwyneth Paltrow, Iron Man 3

Winner: Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Talk about “fucking really.”

Best Comedy

American Hustle

Enough Said

The Heat

This Is the End

The Way Way Back

The World’s End

A HA HA. Why even bother having a category.

Winner: American Hustle

Best Actor in a Comedy

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Simon Pegg, The World’s End

Sam Rockwell, The Way Way Back

I mean seriously, why bother?

Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actress in a Comedy

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Sandra Bullock, The Heat

Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said

Melissa McCarthy, The Heat

Right, because they’re gonna go Greta Gerwig.

Winner: Amy Adams, American Hustle

Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie

The Conjuring

Gravity

Star Trek Into Darkness

World War Z

Winner: Gravity

– – – – – – – – – – –

So those are your winners.

You see why I didn’t rush to post this.

It’s pretty irrelevant.

But some people care.

Mostly I’m amused.

But I’m working my way through Orphan Black as I type this, so whatever. This is just keeping my hands occupied.

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