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Oscars 2014: BAFTA Awards

The BAFTA Awards were today.

I love the BAFTAs, because they happen at night in the UK, which means that by 2 o’clock here, I know all the winners.

As a precursor, they’re somewhat helpful. Sometimes they’re off. Like last year, when they didn’t even nominate Matthew McConaughey. At this point, what it’s really useful for is knowing which way the British contingent of the Academy (which is much more concentrated in the Academy) will vote. It can either cement a winner or keep hope alive for an alternate.

Let’s see which way they went:

Best Film

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Winner: Boyhood

I expected this one to turn out this way. There was no way Birdman was gonna walk away with it. This is gonna be a fight to the bitter end, and I suspect this could easily be one where Boyhood wins and the PGA was just wrong.

I’m glad we still have a race on our hands.

Outstanding British Film

’71

The Imitation Game

Paddington

Pride

The Theory of Everything

Under the Skin

Winner: The Theory of Everything

This doesn’t surprise me, since Marsh got a Best Director nomination and Tyldum did not. Shouldn’t affect the Oscars so much, though what this does tell me is that even though Harvey Weinstein can campaign with the best of them, he’s got no shot this year.

Also kind of surprised Paddington didn’t win.

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Damian Chazelle, Whiplash

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

James Marsh, The Theory of Everything

Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

They had to. The only way this could affect change for the voting is if Linklater and the film won. Now we have a race on our hands.

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Winner: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

This all but closes the door on Michael Keaton. The only way he had a shot at it was if he won this. Now that Redmayne has swept essentially everything, the Oscar is his to lose. And I don’t think he’s gonna lose it.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Yup. This one’s locked.

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Another one locked.

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Imelda Staunton, Pride

Emma Stone, Birdman

Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

All four acting categories, locked up. Haven’t seen this since… well, I guess last year. But there was still some Jennifer Lawrence doubt in Supporting. 2010 was pretty locked. It’s been a little while, is what I’m getting at.

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Whiplash

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Can’t see this happening at the Oscars, but extremely happy for him.

The only way I’ll give this a shot is if it can win the WGA. Otherwise, I’ll stick with what I know.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Sniper

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

Paddington

The Theory of Everything

Winner: The Theory of Everything

It’s been made abundantly clear which film the Brits like better.

Maybe that Adapted race will be tighter than we expect.

Though once Imitation Game takes WGA (which I expect it to do), then things will go back to status quo.

Best Editing

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Nightcrawler

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Winner: Whiplash

Ooh, wouldn’t that be something?

Interesting that Boyhood wasn’t nominated here. Maybe that’s why Whiplash won. Maybe it can still beat Boyhood for the Oscar. Boyhood’s got the Eddie, though. That’s big.

Best Cinematography

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ida

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

Winner: Birdman

Hard to see it losing the Oscar at this point. ASC needs to go a different way for me to consider it.

Best Music

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Interstellar

The Theory of Everything

Under the Skin

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Interesting. And here we all figured Theory of Everything would take this one too, since it’s the favorite for the Oscars.

Then again, Desplat was only nominated once here. So maybe that made it easier.

Best Production Design

Big Eyes

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Clearly. This should win the Oscar.

Best Costume Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Into the Woods

Mr. Turner

The Theory of Everything

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Also a favorite to win the Oscar.

Best Makeup and Hair

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Guardians of the Galaxy

Into the Woods

Mr. Turner

The Theory of Everything

Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Grand Budapest could be the film that takes home the most Oscars if it sweeps the tech categories like this.

Best Sound Effects

American Sniper

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Whiplash

Winner: Whiplash

Happy about that. I wonder if it can pull down this many Oscars. Sound Mixing is a tight category. I’m eagerly anticipating the guilds to announce.

Best Visual Effects

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Guardians of the Galaxy

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Interstellar

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Winner: Interstellar

Of course. It should win pretty easily. Especially here, where it was against four of the five nominees. And Captain America is actually less likely to win than The Hobbit was in this category. So arguably this was the tougher test for Interstellar.

Best Animated Film

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

The Lego Movie

Winner: The Lego Movie

Everyone loves a giant commercial.

Best Documentary

20 Feet from Stardom

20,000 Days to Earth

CitizenFour

Finding Vivian Maier

Virunga

Winner: CitizenFour

It won the DGA last night, and now the BAFTA. Without Ebert in the category, here’s your winner.

Best Foreign Film

Ida

Leviathan

The Lunchbox

Trash

Two Days, One Night

Winner: Ida

Man, I hope this can win the Oscar. It’s looking like it’s coming down to this or Leviathan. My emotional money’s on this.

Best Animated British Short

The Bigger Picture

Monkey Love Experiments

My Dad

Winner: The Bigger Picture

This was nominated for an Oscar. How could they not vote for it?

Best Live-Action British Short

Boogaloo and Graham

Emotional Fusebox

The Karman Line

Slap

Three Brothers

Winner: Boogaloo and Graham

Also nominated for an Oscar.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Elaine Constantine (writer/director Northern Soul)

Gregory Burke, Yann Demange (writer/director ’71)

Hong Khaou (writer/director Lilting)

Paul Katis, Andrew De Lotbiniere (director/producer and producer Kajaki: The True Story)

Stephen Beresford, David Livingstone (writer and producer Pride)

Winner: Stephen Beresford, David Livingstone (writer and producer Pride)

Makes sense.

Rising Star Award

Gugu Mbatha-Raw

Jack O’Connell

Margot Robbie

Miles Teller

Shailene Woodley

Winner: Jack O’Connell

Clearly. Because the rest of them, save Gugu Mbatha-Raw, broke out last year.

– – – – – – – – – –

So what have we learned?

The Brits loved Theory of Everything.

Boyhood is still very much in the race.

Grand Budapest is looking real strong in the tech categories and could (maybe, just maybe) make a run at Screenplay.

Your acting categories are locked.

Birdman will win Cinematography.

Whiplash has a shot at Editing and Sound.

CitizenFour is winning Documentary, in all likelihood.

And the most important thing we learned — think of these results as the majority of a sizable pocket of the Academy. Take like, 25-30% and assume that’s the British contingent. The ones that vote on BAFTA. And assume this is what the majority of those like. And that’s how you can figure out which of these can and will sway a category in another direction.

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2 responses

  1. I wouldn’t be comfortable predicting Imitation Game to win WGA. It’s been shut out of both the Globes and the BAFTAs, and at this point all it really has in its favor is a weak category (well, Inherent Vice is a great script, but the odds are not in its favor) and the fact that it’s the kind of film which wins. And with its stock falling…I don’t know how the WGA will rule, but I could see the Oscar going to Whiplash instead, even though the script isn’t THAT great either.

    February 8, 2015 at 2:40 pm

  2. BlueFox94

    Fantastic. I too feel relieved by the fact that I don’t have to waste time watching the telecast anymore because of the time difference.

    On the other hand, I feel so sorry for Michael Keaton. The stars were all aligned for him–his backstory/real-life parallels, and his performance in that film–but the industry just couldn’t resist electing Redmayne as Hawking. Quel dommage.

    I honestly could care less for what happens on the 22nd anymore because Keaton’s loss will be quite regretful.

    February 8, 2015 at 5:04 pm

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