Oscars 2014 Update: MPSE Awards

The Motion Picture SOund Edtorsalso gave out awarsd tonight.

What does that leave? Only the Costume Designers left to give out their guild awards. And that’s on Tuesday. Which means we’ve essentially got every piece of the puzzle we’re going to have to solve this year’s Oscars. Voting closes Tuesday as well, by the way.

Anyway, these awards are for sound editing, which is the creation and design of all the sounds used in the film. So basically… the creation of gunshots, all of the dialogue, the picking of the music tracks, etc. etc. All of that is sound editing. And sound mixing is what you hear in the film. They’re similar, yet different. This one is more about the physical creation of the sounds, rather than the entire, completed mix. Sound editing is part of sound mixing.

Anyway, here are the MPSE winners:

You remember how CAS had one category and one winner and made it simple? Yeah, this guild doesn’t do that.

They also have a fuck ton of nominees. Which makes it difficult to really gauge what the hell is going on.

Your Sound Editing category is Birdman, Unbroken, Interstellar, American Sniper and The Hobbit, by the way.

Your winner for FX + Foley was American Sniper.

It beat Birdman, Interstellar and Unbroken. So basically it beat the rest of the category there.

Captain America, Apes, Fury, and Guardians were the other nominees.

For Dialogue + ADR in a Feature, the winner was Unbroken.

It beat Birdman. Which is the only other Oscar nominee in the bunch. So maybe that’s why it won.

Apes was in there, Grand Budapest, Imitation Game, Still Alice, Theory of Everything and Whiplash.

Your Music in a Feature winner was Birdman.

The only other nominee there was Interstellar.

The winner for Music in a Musical was Get On Up. Which beat Whiplash, for one, even though that’s not nominated. And it also beat Annie, Into the Woods and Jersey Boys. So yeah.

And the winner for Animation was, not surprisingly, Big Hero 6.

What does this tell me? People really fucking like Birdman.

It might sweep both sound categories.

You’re looking at Picture, Director, maybe Screenplay, both Sound categories, and Cinematography. That’s six Oscars. Out of nine. And it’ll only lose the acting categories. I’m thinking five. I’m thinking it loses at least one Sound and maybe screenplay. But we’ll see.

Then again, Sniper seems like a pretty solid bet here, being a war film and all. $300 million is nothing to shake a stick at. They might give it something for that.

Things are not looking good for Interstellar right now. And here I thought it was a favorite.

Now, quick analysis of MPSE vs. the Oscars…

You can really only go back to 2008 for the categories we see here. Everything else is based on two categories and less than five nominees.

2008 — Dark Knight wins Music and SFX + Foley and wins the Oscar.

2009 — Avatar wins Music, Inglourious Basterds wins Dialogue + ADR, and The Hurt Locker wins the Oscar.

2010 — Inception wins SFX + Foley and Music and wins the Oscar.

2011 — SFX + Foley goes to War Horse. Music goes to Hugo. Dialogue + ADR goes to Super 8. Hugo wins the Oscar.

2012 — SFX + Foley goes to Skyfall, Dialogue + ADR and music go to Life of Pi. Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty tie for the Oscar.

2013 — SFX + Foley goes to Gravity, Captain Phillips wins Dialogue + ADR, The Great Gatsby wins music. Gravity wins the Ocar.

Honestly, all this is telling me is to not vote for Birdman in both sound categories.

I’m looking at my article of the times a film won both Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Birdman does not fit that list. (Though, to be fair, Hugo doesn’t entirely fit it either. Though, it kinda does.)

It’s hard for me to think that it wins two Sound Oscars.

Interstellar still looks like a solid bet.

Though looking at past awards, the Dialogue + ADR is pretty bullshit. No Dialogue + ADR since they split the categories into the ones we have now has won the Oscar.

Going back… the Dialogue + ADR winner has only won the Oscar six times since I’ve been born (Which is coincidentally when they started handing out the award). Who Framed Roger Rabbit, The Hunt for Red October, Titanic, Saving Private Ryan, Letters from Iwo Jima and The Bourne Ultimatum.

So yeah.. Unbroken is out. The Hobbit was clearly out from the jump.

Your Sound Editing winner is either Interstellar, American Sniper or Birdman.

And you can make solid cases for each.

History favors your FX + Foley winner, with 12 of the last 20 winners of that award going on to win the Sound Editing Oscar.

Though if we cut that down to recent years, when the categories were bigger and less insane — 5 out of the last 10 years.

Which means you have a 50/50 shot at American Sniper winning the category.

And honestly, the odds are even better since the category expanded to five nominees. Since 2007, only twice did the FX + Foley winner not win, and that was when people deliberately did not vote for Avatar, and then in 2011, when War Horse won and the Oscar so clearly went to Hugo, which swept the sound awards.

So really… shit, this isn’t looking too good for Interstellar, is it?

History is telling us that either American Sniper wins, or the Best Picture favorite goes on to sweep the sound categories. Or at least take one of them. This could be a Slumdog scenario, where it wins Mixing but not Editing. Though in that year, the Editing award went to the Christopher Nolan film. And I guess it’s also worth pointing out of all those times when the FX + Foley winner went on to win the Oscar since 2007… two of those were Nolan films. Just saying.

So you have three choices here. I’m curious to see how it turns out. This category is coming down to the wire the way the 2012 one did. Maybe we’ll get another tie and increase our chances of getting it right.


One response

  1. BlueFox94

    I’ve been waiting for this article. :)
    By the way, nice first sentence, dude. XD

    February 15, 2015 at 11:50 pm

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