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Oscars 2015: DGA Nominations

The last major guild we were waiting for has announced. It’s DGA time.

Typically, the DGA matches the Oscars four out of five. This year, they theoretically could go five out of five.

Nothing seemed overly surprising with their choices. There was only one moderately surprising entry, but even that was a film that’s looking to be a major player. So really it’s just gonna be about figuring what could knock any of these nominees off the final list.

Here are your DGA nominees for 2015:

Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Inarritu, Scott and Miller seemed like locks all along. McCarthy was a lock based on his film. And McKay has emerged as a lock based on the strength of the film over these past few weeks.

Right now, all we can do is guess who can possibly sneak on instead.

Going as broad as possible and whittling down as I go, here’s what I’m looking at:

  • Todd Haynes
  • Steven Spielberg
  • Lenny Abrahamson
  • Danny Boyle
  • Laszlo Nemes

Even here, you see how unlikely it is.

Nemes is a severe longshot, but isn’t insane.

Boyle’s film has had no support, and even when he gets Best Picture nominees in, he doesn’t always get nominated for Director. So he seems incredibly unlikely. Abrahamson’s film has missed a lot of guilds, and even if it has enough lough to make it on, I doubt they’d nominate him too.

So that really only leaves Spielberg and Haynes. Both of whom had a strong BAFTA presence. Though BAFTA does tend to go a bit afield of the DGA when they like something. (They nominated Damien Chazelle last year, which was awesome, but also never gonna happen with the Academy.) Still, that can help make a case for these two.

Though BAFTA also nominated Scott and McKay and left McCarthy off their list. Which doesn’t seem like it’s gonna happen with the Academy.

Haynes wasn’t nominated for Far From Heaven, and it’s really looking like Carol doesn’t have as much love on the American side of things, guild-wise. It feels like that’ll get about six nominations (Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Score, Costumes and maybe Production Design or Picture) but miss Director and possibly even Picture (though that seems unlikely).

Spielberg seems like the far greater threat. He’s loved within the branch, has gotten on for both War Horse and Lincoln (DGA didn’t nominate him for War Horse either), and really poses a serious threat to the entire proceedings, especially with the BAFTA love.

That said, I don’t think his film is being taken a really serious threat to the field, and I feel like the Academy Directors branch is more likely to go elsewhere most of the time. So I don’t know if I’m automatically considering him as the automatic nominee.

That said — tomorrow, I’m sticking with these five and Spielberg as six and my list will be from there. I don’t think you can really argue otherwise. (Though also, Todd Haynes is hovering there. He has to be in the conversation too.)

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