Oscars 2015: 21st BFCA Critics Choice Awards

The BFCA announced their winners last night. They like to announce just after Oscar nominations are out.

They don’t always match 100% with the Oscars, but they usually are a good prognosticator of one of two things: the film that is going to win Best Picture, or the film that everyone thinks should win Best Picture.

Otherwise there are a lot of awards, and they tend to be pretty populist throughout.

Here are your BFCA winners for 2015:

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

(and) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner: Spotlight

No surprise there. It’s leading the pack, and will continue to do so until it loses the PGA (if it even does).

My point up there about Best Picture and BFCA was about this — here are your last few Best Picture winners at these awards.

Last year: Boyhood. Most people thought that should have won over Birdman. 2013, 12 Years a Slave. Winner. 2012, Argo. Winner. 2011, The Artist. Winner. 2010, The Social Network. “Should have.” 2009, Hurt Locker. Winner. 2008, Slumdog. Winner. 2007, No Country. Winner. 2006, The Departed. Winner. 2005, Brokeback. “Should have.”

See my point? So, there’s a really good chance Spotlight is going to go on to win the whole damn thing. The PGA will confirm this later in the month.

Best Director
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Winner: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Since 2000, BFCA has chosen/predicted a split between Best Picture and Best Director five times, this year being the fifth. The funny thing about the previous four… there was a split three of those times.

The first time, they had Gladiator for Best Picture and Steven Soderbergh for Director. That happened. The second time, they had Chicago for Best Picture and Steven Spielberg for Director (over Roman Polanski, mind you. Who went on to win the Oscar). Third time, Martin Scorsese for Director for The Aviator and Sideways for Best Picture. Neither happened, as Million Dollar Baby went on to win both. After that, you have to come forward all the way to 2013, when they correctly predicted the 12 Years/Gravity split that happened in 2013.

So odds are favoring a split here. The question is which way the DGA is gonna go. At this point, it’s looking like they’re gonna go Miller or Inarritu, with McCarthy a dark horse possibility for them to go same on both. Which seems unlikely. McKay only wins if Big Short surges and wins everything. And Abrahamson has no chance.

The DGA looms very large here, as Miller or Inarritu could pick up some major momentum with a win there.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Winner: Leornardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

It’s already his. This category is over.

Damon is the only one with a major chance to upset. Fassbender is the on-paper contender, but he won’t get enough votes to even contend.

This is Leo’s all the way. It’s in the bag.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Winner: Brie Larson, Room

BFCA guessed your category. SAG did not. I’d like to point that out.

She’s also gonna ride this all the way to the stage. Can’t see anyone taking her down now.

As soon as that category got announced, she had a clear path to the win. Rampling is an afterthought for most voters, Lawrence has one and is just there because of a lack of other people. Blanchett just won and the film doesn’t have as much support as we thought it did. Which leaves Saoirse Ronan, who won’t get enough votes to overtake Larson. She’s got this won too.

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

They’re calling their shot. That’s the second voting body that’s calling the race for Stallone. The thing is — these kinds of wins are the ones that shift momentum.

I’d also like to point out — 4/5 on your category is on here. They missed Bale, but otherwise, this is your category.

Also, looking at it — who is Stallone’s major competition in this category?

Hardy won’t win. Leo’s supporting co-stars never win. Ruffalo doesn’t have the momentum to win. Bale isn’t gonna win. It’s only Rylance, who doesn’t seem to have any momentum at all. It’s almost like Tommy Lee Jones in 2012. Rylance needs SAG to mount any sort of a push. Which he might get, since SAG didn’t nominate Stallone.

It’s really looking like Stallone takes this in a walk.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Yeah. Winslet got the Globe, but that’s because Vikander was nominated lead for this. She’s had such a year, they’re going to give her the Oscar, too. There’s no competition for her whatsoever.

Mara and McAdams are gonna seem like filler for them. Winslet has an Oscar and is the only competition. And Jennifer Jason Leigh will not get enough votes to actually win the category. Christoph Waltz she is not.

This is Vikander’s category to lose. Definitely not locked, but like Stallone, it seems like a really good bet at this point.

Best Young Actor/Actress
Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
RJ Cyler, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Shameik Moore, Dope
Milo Parker, Mr. Holmes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Winner: Jacob Tremblay, Room

He got nominated for a SAG award. How could they go anywhere else?

Solid category, though. They were all good.

Best Acting Ensemble
The Big Short
The Hateful Eight
Straight Outta Compton

Winner: Spotlight

Of course. With one goes the other.

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out

Winner: Spotlight

4/5 of your Oscar category. Straight Outta Compton beat out Quentin for the fifth spot. Neither was going to win anyway.

Once the category was announced, there was no competition for Spotlight. It’s gonna win in a walk.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
The Martian
Steve Jobs

Winner: The Big Short

This is gonna happen too. The way that film is surging. Plus Sorkin didn’t get on the final list and Carol got on instead. And that film was never going to win.

There’s no direct competition for it. Everything else is only gonna siphon minor amounts of votes. Nothing’s really gonna take off huge chunks.

So it looks like your screenplay categories are locked too.

Best Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

This one is open for an upset. Sure, Mad Max is your presumed favorite, but don’t rule out a Spotlight or Big Short win, the way Argo won in 2012. That movie won Picture, Screenplay and Editing and nothing else. It would have won Director too, if Affleck had been nominated. Expect Spotlight (or Big Short, I guess) to follow a similar trajectory. Wait for ACE and don’t consider this a locked category just yet.

Oh, also, swap Martian off for Star Wars, and that’s your Oscar category. So BFCA was right on top of this one too.

Best Cinematography
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

They nailed your Oscar category, even though they had six nominees. Interesting they left off Bridge of Spies the way the Oscars did.

This is a tough category because there are three clear potential winners in it. Though even then, I assume Deakins has no chance. So really this is between Mad Max and Chivo. And I think they’re gonna look to give Revenant something if it’s not gonna win Best Picture, so it’ll sneak in a few tech awards. This might be one of them.

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

So BFCA is going all in on Mad Max.

BFCA didn’t nominate Revenant, which the Oscars did.

Otherwise — Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Martian, Revenant and Danish Girl —  you have to figure another Mad Max/Revenant fight. Though Spielberg jumped up and won this category before, so all bets are currently off with this.

Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Now we’re getting a bit ridiculous. Just give it everything, why don’t you?

Revenant got nominated at the Oscars over Brooklyn, otherwise this is your category.

Mad Max might win this, otherwise I don’t know which way they go. Costumes are usually a toss up.

Best Hair & Makeup
Black Mass
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

I actually think Revenant takes this Oscar, purely because Leo. Sure, BFCA was gonna sweep this in the techs, but I’m actually feeling pretty confident about Revenant taking this one in the end.

Still, it’s 50/50, since the old man film has no chance.

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
The Walk

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

At this point, I don’t even have to look at what they’re picking. They’re sweeping it.

They missed Star Wars (though that might be a timing thing) on the list, which they would have had if it counted.

The real question is where this category is going to go with the Best Picture nominees. Mad Max has to take it. Star Wars can’t, otherwise that marks the first time in the modern era a non-Best Picture nominee has won this category over a Best Picture nominee.

Best Animated Feature
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Winner: Inside Out

The Oscars smartly went off the board for the lesser two nominees. Still won’t change anything. Inside Out has this category locked.

Best Action Movie
Furious 7
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

This is all cut and paste at this point. Of course this won.

Best Actor in an Action Movie
Daniel Craig, Spectre
Tom Cruise, Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
Tom Hardy, Mad Max: Fury Road
Chris Pratt, Jurassic World
Paul Rudd, Ant-Man

Winner: Tom Hardy, Mad Max: Fury Road


Best Actress in an Action Movie
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Rebecca Ferguson, Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
Bryce Dallas Howard, Jurassic World
Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Winner: Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

They nominated her for Best Actress. Clearly.

Best Comedy
The Big Short
Inside Out

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Oh, wait… sorry. Was just so used to seeing it win everywhere.

Winner: The Big Short

That seems unfair to the rest of the comedies, to put the Best Picture nominee in there.

Best Actor in a Comedy
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Robert De Niro, The Intern
Bill Hader, Trainwreck
Jason Statham, Spy

Winner: Christian Bale, The Big Short

So, the one guy on the list nominated for an Oscar?

I mean, sure, some of the list is shaky at best, but… comedy?

Statham objectively should have won.

Best Actress in a Comedy
Tina Fey, Sisters
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Winner: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

No shit.

Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie
Ex Machina
It Follows
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian

Winner: Ex Machina

Of course. Nice to see the It Follows love.

Best Foreign Language Film
The Assassin
Goodnight Mommy
The Second Mother
Son of Saul

Winner: Son of Saul

It’s the only Oscar nominee. Oh, wait, Mustang is there too. Though this is a better category than the Oscars have. Saul will still take it over this competition.

Best Documentary Feature
Cartel Land
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
The Look of Silence
Where to Invade Next

Winner: Amy

Hard to see this losing, between the subject matter, the Academy’s propensity for music docs lately and the Senna snub from a few years ago.

Best Song
“Love Me Like You Do,” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“See You Again,” from Furious 7
“Til It Happens To You,” from The Hunting Ground
“One Kind of Love,” from Love & Mercy
“Writing’s on the Wall,” from Spectre
“Simple Song #3,” from Youth

Winner: “See You Again,” from Furious 7

Fuck you.

Best Score
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant

Winner: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

This could happen. Sicario won’t win, Carol could. Star Wars seems unlikely. And Bridge of Spies seems unlikely.

It’s between Morricone and Burwell at this point.

Best Drama Series
Mr. Robot
Penny Dreadful
The Knick
The Leftovers

Winner: Mr. Robot.

Oh shit, now I have to skim through TV too?

Best Comedy Series
Jane the Virgin
Master of None
The Last Man on Earth
You’re the Worst

Winner: Master of None

Not Mad Max: Fury Road?

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth
Randall Park, Fresh Off the Boat
Fred Savage, The Grinder
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Winner: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Fred Savage?

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Dancy, Hannibal
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Clive Owen, The Knick
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Justin Theroux, The Leftovers
Aden Young, Rectify

Winner: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Fred Savage?

Best Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Wes Bentley, American Horror Story: Hotel
Martin Clunes, Arthur & George
Idris Elba, Luther
Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero
Vincent Kartheiser, Saints & Strangers
Patrick Wilson, Fargo

Winner: Idris Elba, Luther

Is this a makeup for the Oscar snub?

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Aya Cash, You’re the Worst
Wendi McLendon-Covey, The Goldbergs
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Constance Wu, Fresh Off the Boat

Winner: Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Happy for her.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Shiri Appleby, UnREAL
Carrie Coon, The Leftovers
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Eva Green, Penny Dreadful
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Krysten Ritter, Jessica Jones

Winner: Carrie Coon, The Leftovers

All for this because she was so good in Gone Girl.

Best Actress in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Hotel
Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
Sarah Hay, Flesh and Bone
Alyvia Alyn Lind, Dolly Parton’s Coat of Many Colors
Rachel McAdams, True Detective
Shanice Williams, The Wiz Live!

Winner: Kirsten Dunst, Fargo

This was a slam dunk.

Best Guest Actor/Actress in a Comedy Series
Ellen Burstyn,  Mom
Anjelica Huston, Transparent
Cherry Jones, Transparent
Jenifer Lewis, Black-ish
Timothy Olyphant, The Grinder
John Slattery, Wet Hot American Summer: First Day of Camp

Winner: Timothy Olyphant, The Grinder


Best Guest Actor/Actress in a Drama Series
Richard Armitage, Hannibal
Justin Kirk, Manhattan
Patti LuPone, Penny Dreadful
Margo Martindale, The Good Wife
Marisa Tomei, Empire
B.D. Wong, Mr. Robot

Winner: Margo Martindale, The Good Wife


Best TV Movie or Miniseries
Childhood’s End
Saints & Strangers
Show Me a Hero
The Wiz Live!

Winner: Fargo

Of course.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Jaime Camil, Jane the Virgin
Jay Duplass, Transparent
Neil Flynn, The Middle
Keegan-Michael Key, Playing House
Mel Rodriguez, Getting On

Winner: Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine


Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Clayne Crawford, Rectify
Christopher Eccleston, The Leftovers
Andre Holland, The Knick
Jonathan Jackson, Nashville
Rufus Sewell, The Man in the High Castle
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Winner: Christian Slater, Mr. Robot


Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
David Alan Grier, The Wiz Live!
Ne-Yo, The Wiz Live!
Nick Offerman, Fargo
Jesse Plemons, Fargo
Raoul Trujillo, Saints & Strangers
Bokeem Woodbine, Fargo

Winner: Jesse Plemons, Fargo

Woodbine deserved it for the season. Offerman deserved it for the one episode. Plemons was solid too though. So I can’t argue.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory 
Kether Donohue, You’re the Worst
Allison Janney, Mom
Judith Light, Transparent
Niecy Nash, Getting On
Eden Sher, The Middle

Winner: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory 


Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Ann Dowd, The Leftovers
Regina King, The Leftovers
Helen McCrory, Penny Dreadful
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Maura Tierney, The Affair
Constance Zimmer, UnREAL

Winner: Constance Zimmer, UnREAL

No idea.

Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Mary J. Blige, The Wiz Live!
Laura Haddock, Luther
Cristin Milioti, Fargo
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Hotel
Winona Ryder, Show Me a Hero
Jean Smart, Fargo

Winner: Jean Smart, Fargo

Are we seriously not done yet?

Best Animation Series
Bob’s Burgers
BoJack Horseman
South Park
Star Wars Rebels
The Simpsons

Winner: BoJack Horseman

How is this awards show still not going on as I type this?

Best Reality Show – Competition
Face Off
MasterChef Junior
The Amazing Race
The Voice

Winner: The Voice


Best Reality Show Host
Ted Allen, Chopped
Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race
James Lipton, Inside the Actors Studio
Jane Lynch, Hollywood Game Night
Jeff Probst, Survivor
Gordon Ramsay, Hell’s Kitchen

Winner: James Lipton, Inside the Actors Studio

Yeah, Lipton!

Is he still even doing that show? Had no idea.

Best Structured Reality Show
Antiques Roadshow
Inside The Actors Studio
Project Greenlight
Shark Tank
Undercover Boss

Winner: Shark Tank

Sure. Please just stop.

Best Talk Show
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
The Graham Norton Show
The Late Late Show with James Corden
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon 

Winner: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

I’d have slit my wrists in the audience.

Best Unstructured Reality Show
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown
Deadliest Catch
Naked and Afraid
Pawn Stars

Winner: Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown

Thank god we’re done!

Oh my god. I thought it was never going to end.

– – – – – – – – – –

I have no idea where to begin because the categories were so long.

Mostly it’s starting to look like, of the 20 Oscar categories represented here (sans Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and the two shorts categories), a lot of them are already locked.

I’m not gonna think too much into it now, but I’m feeling like this will be an easy year to guess stuff because it’s between one or two films, and a lot of times, the winner is 75% of the way there a month out.


One response

  1. Editing for Spotlight would be a serious obstacle though because it missed out at the ACE Eddies despite their splitting categories between Drama and Comedy.

    I dunno about the you, but I think the Golden Globes got it more right this year, film categories-wise, compared to the Critics’ Choice Awards.

    I really hope that the Oscars don’t have to split Best Picture and Best Director. 2013 made sense with Gravity and 12 Years A Slave, both towering films, but this year?

    I really like Spotlight. I really do. I admire its balance and procedural narrative. But Spotlight is no 12 Years A Slave, and at the same time…Mad Max: Fury Road, The Big Short, The Revenant, and The Martian are all more impressive films with stronger cinematic craft, whether you like their stories or not. All of these mentioned films are phenomenal, but the gap in effort between those four and Spotlight is wide enough to render giving Best Picture to Spotlight a disappointment.

    To the Academy: You are free to award Spotlight Best Original Screenplay (my deepest apologies to Inside Out), but please don’t just give Spotlight Best Picture as a consolation prize when any of those aforementioned four will likely clean up the below-the-line categories. If you’re going to award Spotlight with Best Picture, then at least go most of the way in. Give one or both Rachel McAdams or Mark Ruffalo the awards in their respective categories. Give Tom McCarthy Best Director. Give even Tom McArdle Best Editing. At least then, while I wouldn’t have agreed with your choices, I would understand that you simply loved the film over the others.

    Just please…don’t compromise with Best Picture.

    At least Boyhood last year almost came away with Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress before getting stalled by Birdman. A Best Picture victory for Boyhood would’ve made complete sense with those other two victories…

    Wait a minute…

    …Now that I think about it, I’m starting to suspect that Spotlight might not come away with Best Picture in the end. The Academy, given their tendencies, won’t give a Best Picture winner just two statuettes, which hasn’t happened since The Greatest Show On Earth (1952). A decent winner should have at least three, and those other two have to be any combination of Directing/Editing/Writing/Acting. Assuming that it will take Original Screenplay, if they give Spotlight Best Editing, then I’ll be okay with Best Picture. If McCarthy wins Best Director, then I’ll be even more okay.

    But the thing is…I don’t see Spotlight winning the first one, given its lack of an ACE Eddie nomination and because Mad Max and The Big Short are clearly more standout editing showcases.

    Best Director is a possibility, but I predict some backlash if McCarthy wins over veteran George Miller, reigning champ repeat Alejandro G. Iñárritu (despite him being the reigning Best Picture champion), or even comedy-to-drama-transitioning Adam McKay. Not to mention DGA would have to back McCarthy first.

    They’re not going to give Ruffalo Supporting Actor while Stallone is there. McAdams was the only actress of the cast to get a SAG nom, but all the other four—Leigh, Mara, Vikander (these last two being the result of category fraud), and Winslet—tower in their films, while McAdams is mostly just a part of the team. A few nice scenes of just her, yes, but mostly just a team player.

    Until DGA, McCarthy and McAdams are Spotlight’s best shots outside of Original Screenplay. And even then, their competition is mighty, I daresay even better.

    As proven by Birdman and Boyhood last winter, the industry might have a different say with who gets what. Let’s see what PGA. DGA, BAFTA, and the rest of the guilds will do in the upcoming month-and-a-half.

    January 18, 2016 at 11:56 am

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