Oscars 2015: SAG Awards Preview

The SAG Awards are being given out in about four hours or something. So I figure I’ll preview those now. The list of favorite supporting male performances will go up later on. That’s not as interesting as an Oscar race.

Actually, it’s appropriate that article is going up today, since Best Supporting Actor is going to be the most interesting category of tonight’s awards. But I’ll get to that in a second.

Here’s what I’m thinking is going to happen tonight at the SAG Awards:

Best Ensemble Cast

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

Trumbo

Here’s how this works — Trumbo will not win. Beasts of No Nation will not win. The former has no traction and would make zero sense and is just lucky to be nominated, and the latter barely has a cast on it. They won’t award it. So toss those off.

Spotlight has a solid chance at taking this. And if it does, the illusion of a race persists. Especially if it can make a showing at the BAFTAs.

I fully expect The Big Short to take this, and seeing it win here pretty much anoints it as the de facto Best Picture winner at this point.

Now, the most interesting scenario is a Straight Outta Compton win, which I also fully expect to be a possibility tonight, sort of as a “fuck you” from SAG to the Oscars. That would keep the racism argument in the media for another week, if that happens.

So, I expect The Big Short to win, I’m curious to see if Straight Outta Compton wins, and I probably would pick it if I were officially guessing (which I’m not, because I don’t care) just to make things interesting, and Spotlight kinda needs this, though something tells me they’ve already decided for The Big Short and the race is over. But we’ll see.

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Renenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Leo wins this. I don’t think there’s any chance he doesn’t.

Fassbender is his only competition, and goddamn, would that throw a monkey wrench into the proceedings.

But no, Leo will take this. SAG loves Leo. This is his year.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

This is Brie Larson’s year.

Maybe they give it to Blanchett, but I highly doubt that’ll happen. Ronan seems lucky to be nominated, even though she’s really the second choice here.

The lead categories are locked, and SAG is gonna confirm that.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Well, since we all assume that Stallone is winning this, the only thing that could make the category interesting is if Mark Rylance or Christian Bale wins.

I looked through all the SAG acting categories and discovered that never in the history of SAG has someone won and not been nominated for an Oscar. They might have been nominated in a different category (Benicio Del Toro, Jennifer Connelly, Kate Winslet), but never has a SAG winner not also been nominated by the Academy.

So… that pretty much means that, unless they really want to make some statements and give the award to Idris Elba, then either Mark Rylance or Christian Bale is going to win this.

Bale seems very unlikely. I know they like him, but will the film sweep? Is he the consolation prize? Seems like Rylance wins this and The Big Short takes Ensemble.

I’m thinking Rylance wins this and then Stallone goes on to win the Oscar, much like Tommy Lee Jones winning SAG and losing to an unnominated Christoph Waltz at the Oscars, who also won the Globe for his performance. What’s going to make the whole thing interesting is if Rylance (or Bale) wins both SAG and BAFTA, which would be a fairly rare occurrence at that (I won’t look up all the times it’s happened until it goes down that way), since at least Waltz won BAFTA along with the Globe.

Either way, I’m thinking Rylance takes this. Elba would be the alternate.

Best Supporting Actress

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Alivia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

This is basically your Oscar category. Mirren swaps for Jennifer Jason Leigh. Neither have a shot at actually winning anyway, so it’s fine.

Winslet won the Globe, but at the Globes, Mara and Vikander went lead for their (very much lead) performances. So this is the first time all the major contenders are in the same category.

McAdams would be a shocker, but I don’t see that happening.

I don’t see Mara getting enough support to take this, and that would really surprise me.

It seems to be Vikander’s to lose, and Winslet being second choice.

If Winslet wins, then we really have an interesting scenario on our hands. But I’m pretty sure Vikander will take this and walk all the way to the podium. (Though this set up lends itself to a nice little surprise on Oscar night. Do not rule that out.)

– – – – – – – – – –

Oh, and now for the bullshit TV awards I don’t care about at all.

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

The Big Bang Theory

Key & Peele

Modern Family

Orange Is the New Black

Transparent

Veep

Modern Family won four years in a row and then Orange Is the New Black won last year.

This is the first time Transparent is nominated, so I’ll take them for the win.

Also hilarious that the ensemble of Key and Peele is literally just Key and Peele.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Louis C.K., Louie

William H. Macy, Shameless

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Why would you ever go against Jeffrey Tambor?

Macy is the backup. He won last year.

They never give it to Louis, Parsons has never won (though maybe) and Burrell won two years ago. I think they’re over Modern Family.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Aduba won last year. They won’t go back to that well. Edie Falco is 0-6 for Nurse Jackie. Why start now? Julia Louis-Dreyfus won two years ago and they love her. Kemper is an interesting choice, but I don’t know if they’d go there. I say it’s Poehler, who has never won. Poehler, then Dreyfus, then Kemper.

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Homeland

House of Cards

Mad Men

Downton Abbey won last year and in 2013. Mad Men won twice. Homeland’s never won. House of Cards never won. Both aren’t coming off particularly great seasons, from what I hear.

So let’s take Game of Thrones. And Downton as a backup. And Mad Men as the “we really like you” third choice.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Spacey won last year, Dinklage never won. Hamm never won.

I say it’s Hamm, then Malek, then maybe Odenkirk.

I think they go with Hamm because Mad Men is ending and he wins for the show.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland

Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Robin Wright, House of Cards

Viola Davis won last year. They won’t give her two in a row. Danes won hers already. Margulies won this twice. Maggie won two years ago. Wright’s never won, so fuck it, I’ll take her. Spare the double winner.

I say Wright, then Danes, then Davis.

Best Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

Idris Elba, Luther

Ben Kingsley, Tut

Ray Liotta, Texas Rising

Bill Murray, A Very Murray Christmas

Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall

Anyone else really wanna see Bill Murray take this?

They like the biggest star in this category.

I say it’s Rylance (especially if he doesn’t win Supporting Actor), then Murray, then Elba. Kingsley is a no, and Liotta probably not.

I think Rylance wins this. Though rooting for Murray.

Best Actress in a TV Movie or Miniseries

Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco

Queen Latifah, Bessie

Christina Ricci, The Lizzie Borden Chronicles

Susan Sarandon, The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe

Kristen Wiig, The Spoils Before Dying

Still hilarious to me that Kidman is nominated here for a film that was so bad they had to release it on TV.

This is Latifah’s to lose. Then Kidman (sadly). Wiig and Ricci won’t win. And Sarandon would be unlikely.

– – – – – – – – – –

So that’s what we got. Should be a pretty straightforward evening.

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