Oscars 2015: SAG Awards Preview
The SAG Awards are being given out in about four hours or something. So I figure I’ll preview those now. The list of favorite supporting male performances will go up later on. That’s not as interesting as an Oscar race.
Actually, it’s appropriate that article is going up today, since Best Supporting Actor is going to be the most interesting category of tonight’s awards. But I’ll get to that in a second.
Here’s what I’m thinking is going to happen tonight at the SAG Awards:
Best Ensemble Cast
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Straight Outta Compton
Here’s how this works — Trumbo will not win. Beasts of No Nation will not win. The former has no traction and would make zero sense and is just lucky to be nominated, and the latter barely has a cast on it. They won’t award it. So toss those off.
Spotlight has a solid chance at taking this. And if it does, the illusion of a race persists. Especially if it can make a showing at the BAFTAs.
I fully expect The Big Short to take this, and seeing it win here pretty much anoints it as the de facto Best Picture winner at this point.
Now, the most interesting scenario is a Straight Outta Compton win, which I also fully expect to be a possibility tonight, sort of as a “fuck you” from SAG to the Oscars. That would keep the racism argument in the media for another week, if that happens.
So, I expect The Big Short to win, I’m curious to see if Straight Outta Compton wins, and I probably would pick it if I were officially guessing (which I’m not, because I don’t care) just to make things interesting, and Spotlight kinda needs this, though something tells me they’ve already decided for The Big Short and the race is over. But we’ll see.
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Renenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Leo wins this. I don’t think there’s any chance he doesn’t.
Fassbender is his only competition, and goddamn, would that throw a monkey wrench into the proceedings.
But no, Leo will take this. SAG loves Leo. This is his year.
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
This is Brie Larson’s year.
Maybe they give it to Blanchett, but I highly doubt that’ll happen. Ronan seems lucky to be nominated, even though she’s really the second choice here.
The lead categories are locked, and SAG is gonna confirm that.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Well, since we all assume that Stallone is winning this, the only thing that could make the category interesting is if Mark Rylance or Christian Bale wins.
I looked through all the SAG acting categories and discovered that never in the history of SAG has someone won and not been nominated for an Oscar. They might have been nominated in a different category (Benicio Del Toro, Jennifer Connelly, Kate Winslet), but never has a SAG winner not also been nominated by the Academy.
So… that pretty much means that, unless they really want to make some statements and give the award to Idris Elba, then either Mark Rylance or Christian Bale is going to win this.
Bale seems very unlikely. I know they like him, but will the film sweep? Is he the consolation prize? Seems like Rylance wins this and The Big Short takes Ensemble.
I’m thinking Rylance wins this and then Stallone goes on to win the Oscar, much like Tommy Lee Jones winning SAG and losing to an unnominated Christoph Waltz at the Oscars, who also won the Globe for his performance. What’s going to make the whole thing interesting is if Rylance (or Bale) wins both SAG and BAFTA, which would be a fairly rare occurrence at that (I won’t look up all the times it’s happened until it goes down that way), since at least Waltz won BAFTA along with the Globe.
Either way, I’m thinking Rylance takes this. Elba would be the alternate.
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alivia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
This is basically your Oscar category. Mirren swaps for Jennifer Jason Leigh. Neither have a shot at actually winning anyway, so it’s fine.
Winslet won the Globe, but at the Globes, Mara and Vikander went lead for their (very much lead) performances. So this is the first time all the major contenders are in the same category.
McAdams would be a shocker, but I don’t see that happening.
I don’t see Mara getting enough support to take this, and that would really surprise me.
It seems to be Vikander’s to lose, and Winslet being second choice.
If Winslet wins, then we really have an interesting scenario on our hands. But I’m pretty sure Vikander will take this and walk all the way to the podium. (Though this set up lends itself to a nice little surprise on Oscar night. Do not rule that out.)
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Oh, and now for the bullshit TV awards I don’t care about at all.
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Key & Peele
Orange Is the New Black
Modern Family won four years in a row and then Orange Is the New Black won last year.
This is the first time Transparent is nominated, so I’ll take them for the win.
Also hilarious that the ensemble of Key and Peele is literally just Key and Peele.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Louis C.K., Louie
William H. Macy, Shameless
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Why would you ever go against Jeffrey Tambor?
Macy is the backup. He won last year.
They never give it to Louis, Parsons has never won (though maybe) and Burrell won two years ago. I think they’re over Modern Family.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Aduba won last year. They won’t go back to that well. Edie Falco is 0-6 for Nurse Jackie. Why start now? Julia Louis-Dreyfus won two years ago and they love her. Kemper is an interesting choice, but I don’t know if they’d go there. I say it’s Poehler, who has never won. Poehler, then Dreyfus, then Kemper.
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Downton Abbey won last year and in 2013. Mad Men won twice. Homeland’s never won. House of Cards never won. Both aren’t coming off particularly great seasons, from what I hear.
So let’s take Game of Thrones. And Downton as a backup. And Mad Men as the “we really like you” third choice.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Spacey won last year, Dinklage never won. Hamm never won.
I say it’s Hamm, then Malek, then maybe Odenkirk.
I think they go with Hamm because Mad Men is ending and he wins for the show.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, Homeland
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Viola Davis won last year. They won’t give her two in a row. Danes won hers already. Margulies won this twice. Maggie won two years ago. Wright’s never won, so fuck it, I’ll take her. Spare the double winner.
I say Wright, then Danes, then Davis.
Best Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Idris Elba, Luther
Ben Kingsley, Tut
Ray Liotta, Texas Rising
Bill Murray, A Very Murray Christmas
Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
Anyone else really wanna see Bill Murray take this?
They like the biggest star in this category.
I say it’s Rylance (especially if he doesn’t win Supporting Actor), then Murray, then Elba. Kingsley is a no, and Liotta probably not.
I think Rylance wins this. Though rooting for Murray.
Best Actress in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
Queen Latifah, Bessie
Christina Ricci, The Lizzie Borden Chronicles
Susan Sarandon, The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe
Kristen Wiig, The Spoils Before Dying
Still hilarious to me that Kidman is nominated here for a film that was so bad they had to release it on TV.
This is Latifah’s to lose. Then Kidman (sadly). Wiig and Ricci won’t win. And Sarandon would be unlikely.
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So that’s what we got. Should be a pretty straightforward evening.