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Oscars 2015: BAFTA Awards Predictions

I’ll preface this by saying I know nothing about how BAFTA voting works. I just know how to use the results to pick the Oscars.

That said, the show is gonna start in like 20 minutes (though by the time this gets posted it’ll probably have just started), so I’m just gonna run through some guesses, because why the hell not. Mostly to familiarize myself with what they’ve nominated and kill 20 minutes of my morning from all the other shit I was doing.

Here are my guesses for the BAFTAs:

Best Film

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Carol

The Revenant

Spotlight

We can rule out Bridge of Spies and Carol for sure.

What’s interesting to me is how America-centric all five nominees are, specifically the three that can win.

Spotlight didn’t get a Best Director nomination. So that tells me this is between The Big Short and The Revenant.

If The Big Short wins, then the race is over. If The Revenant wins, then it continues to be interesting as shit.

They seem to like more artistic stuff here, so I’m gonna vote for chaos and pick The Revenant.

Best British Film

45 Years

Amy

Brooklyn

The Danish Girl

Ex Machina

The Lobster

I would like to see Brooklyn take this. Though it could also be Ex Machina.

I say it’s Brooklyn. Because why not?

Best Director

Todd Haynes, Carol

Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

Adam McKay, The Big Short

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Inarritu is gonna win this. Ridley is a sneaky contender, but I think they go chalk and take The Revenant across the board. Also, if McKay wins, this shit is over and Oscar night got so much easier.

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

It’s Leo. You fucking know it’s Leo. Fassbender maybe, because they like to give their award to Brits. The last non-European to win this was Mickey Rourke.

Here’s the thing, either the Leo train is too far out to lose and they pick him, or they decide, “Well, he’s gonna win, let’s take Fassbender, because it doesn’t matter.” One or the other should happen. A Fassbender win makes Oscar night slightly more interesting. But a Leo win means it’s beyond locked and he can’t lose. It seems weird to think The Revenant is gonna win three top awards, but let’s see. It’s not like my predictions mean anything.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

INTERESTING.

Do they give it to Brie Larson or Alicia Vikander?

I say they give it to Brie Larson and give Vikander Supporting for Ex Machina (which I assume she’s nominated for as well without even looking).

Saoirse Ronan is a dark horse.

They typically go with who’s gonna win the Oscar. So I’ll take Brie Larson, with the other possibility being them giving Vikander both.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

No Stallone. Which means your Supporting Actor Oscar race can either get more or less interesting here. It will not stay the same. If Bale or Rylance win (Rylance being the larger contender), then it gets way more interesting. Same for Ruffalo. But if Elba wins, which I expect to happen, then Stallone remains your likely winner and the Oscars look terrible for not even nominating Idris.

Something tells me that’s the most likely scenario here.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Vikander is winning one award. I think it’s here. If she doesn’t win this and wins Best Actress, then Kate Winslet will win. It’s one or the other.

Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Spotlight

Spotlight wins.

Bridge of Spies is the alternate.

Maybe Ex Machina in a surprise.

They like to go off the board in Screenplay, so it could be something weird. I actually think Ex Machina might be the alternate choice to Bridge of Spies as the secondary winner.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Steve Jobs

How does The Big Short not win this? They make a statement with a Sorkin win. Brooklyn makes a lot of sense, but I think they go chalk. I’m an uninformed American, so I don’t know how they vote.

Best Editing

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

This is gonna be an interesting category, since they’re typically good at guessing the winner at the Oscars. This year, three of the top contenders are here (Star Wars or Spotlight won’t win the Oscar). So this will dictate how a lot of people think the Oscar will go.

I say they go Mad Max or The Big Short. I don’t see The Revenant sweeping absolutely everything, even if they do love it.

Best Cinematography

Bridge of Spies

Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Sicario

3 in a row for Chivo.

Or they go Mad Max. One or the other.

Deakins probably doesn’t win this.

Best Original Score

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

The Revenant

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

If Morricone wins, then he’s your overwhelming favorite to take the Oscar. This is also 4/5 your actual category, which is interesting. The Revenant is ineligible. Also interesting that Carol was more loved by the BAFTAs than the Academy and still didn’t manage a Score nomination here.

I think they go Morricone.

Best Production Design

Bridge of Spies

Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Mad Max.

I’m fascinated that The Revenant didn’t get nominated here. Not that it really should have. No Danish Girl either.

Making this easier for Max to take.

Best Costume Design

Brooklyn

Carol

Cinderella

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

They’re a good prognosticator. So I say Mad Max or Cinderella takes this.

Let’s say Cinderella to make things interesting. Though if Max wins this, it’ll win the Oscar.

Best Makeup & Hair

Brooklyn

Carol

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

The Revenant. Mad Max is backup. They don’t ever go off the board unless something isn’t nominated.

Best Sound

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This is usually Sound Mixing, not Editing.

I say Mad Max. Maybe they take The Revenant. Star Wars is third choice. I think Max takes it though.

Best Visual Effects

Ant-Man

Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

They’re usually good at guessing the winner. A lack of a Revenant nomination makes me think that can’t win at the Oscars, and makes me think Mad Max takes it all the way.

So I’m guessing Mad Max and am really curious to see if they go Star Wars.

Best Animated Film

Inside Out

Minions

Shaun the Sheep Movie

Inside Out can’t lose.

Though actually, Shaun the Sheep is British… that could theoretically happen and change nothing at the Oscars. Still, not voting against Pixar.

Also, fucking Minions…

Best Foreign Language Film

The Assassin

Force Majeure

Theeb

Timbuktu

Wild Tales

Technically 4/5 were nominated. Just not this year. I guess that means Force Majeure or Wild Tales wins.

Let’s say Force Majeure so we can be happy it got something.

Best Documentary

Amy

Cartel Land

He Named Me Malala

Listen to Me Marlon

Sherpa

Amy. Easy winner.

Best Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Debbie Tucker Green, Second Coming

Naji Abu Nowar + Rupert Lloyd, Theeb

Sean McCallister + Elhum Shakerifar, A Syrian Love Story

Stephen Fingleton, The Survivalist

Let’s say The Survivalist. Because it’s always something random that I never expect.

Best British Animated Short

Edmond

Manoman

Prologue

Manoman. Because I have no idea.

Best British Live Action Short

Elephant

Mining Poems or Odes

Operator

Over

Samuel-613

Uhh… Elephant. Because why not? No idea.

Rising Star Award

Bel Powley

Brie Larson

Dakota Johnson

John Boyega

Taron Egerton

The public is voting on this. So let’s assume John Boyega or Taron Egerton wins.

– – – – – – – – – –

I wrote this up in 20 minutes. I’m impressed with myself for that.

Gonna get this up just as the show starts. Go me.

I’ll be back in like three hours with a recap.

http://bplusmovieblog.com

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