Oscars 2015: BAFTA Awards Predictions
I’ll preface this by saying I know nothing about how BAFTA voting works. I just know how to use the results to pick the Oscars.
That said, the show is gonna start in like 20 minutes (though by the time this gets posted it’ll probably have just started), so I’m just gonna run through some guesses, because why the hell not. Mostly to familiarize myself with what they’ve nominated and kill 20 minutes of my morning from all the other shit I was doing.
Here are my guesses for the BAFTAs:
Best Film
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Revenant
Spotlight
We can rule out Bridge of Spies and Carol for sure.
What’s interesting to me is how America-centric all five nominees are, specifically the three that can win.
Spotlight didn’t get a Best Director nomination. So that tells me this is between The Big Short and The Revenant.
If The Big Short wins, then the race is over. If The Revenant wins, then it continues to be interesting as shit.
They seem to like more artistic stuff here, so I’m gonna vote for chaos and pick The Revenant.
Best British Film
45 Years
Amy
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Ex Machina
The Lobster
I would like to see Brooklyn take this. Though it could also be Ex Machina.
I say it’s Brooklyn. Because why not?
Best Director
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Inarritu is gonna win this. Ridley is a sneaky contender, but I think they go chalk and take The Revenant across the board. Also, if McKay wins, this shit is over and Oscar night got so much easier.
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
It’s Leo. You fucking know it’s Leo. Fassbender maybe, because they like to give their award to Brits. The last non-European to win this was Mickey Rourke.
Here’s the thing, either the Leo train is too far out to lose and they pick him, or they decide, “Well, he’s gonna win, let’s take Fassbender, because it doesn’t matter.” One or the other should happen. A Fassbender win makes Oscar night slightly more interesting. But a Leo win means it’s beyond locked and he can’t lose. It seems weird to think The Revenant is gonna win three top awards, but let’s see. It’s not like my predictions mean anything.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
INTERESTING.
Do they give it to Brie Larson or Alicia Vikander?
I say they give it to Brie Larson and give Vikander Supporting for Ex Machina (which I assume she’s nominated for as well without even looking).
Saoirse Ronan is a dark horse.
They typically go with who’s gonna win the Oscar. So I’ll take Brie Larson, with the other possibility being them giving Vikander both.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
No Stallone. Which means your Supporting Actor Oscar race can either get more or less interesting here. It will not stay the same. If Bale or Rylance win (Rylance being the larger contender), then it gets way more interesting. Same for Ruffalo. But if Elba wins, which I expect to happen, then Stallone remains your likely winner and the Oscars look terrible for not even nominating Idris.
Something tells me that’s the most likely scenario here.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Vikander is winning one award. I think it’s here. If she doesn’t win this and wins Best Actress, then Kate Winslet will win. It’s one or the other.
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight
Spotlight wins.
Bridge of Spies is the alternate.
Maybe Ex Machina in a surprise.
They like to go off the board in Screenplay, so it could be something weird. I actually think Ex Machina might be the alternate choice to Bridge of Spies as the secondary winner.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs
How does The Big Short not win this? They make a statement with a Sorkin win. Brooklyn makes a lot of sense, but I think they go chalk. I’m an uninformed American, so I don’t know how they vote.
Best Editing
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
This is gonna be an interesting category, since they’re typically good at guessing the winner at the Oscars. This year, three of the top contenders are here (Star Wars or Spotlight won’t win the Oscar). So this will dictate how a lot of people think the Oscar will go.
I say they go Mad Max or The Big Short. I don’t see The Revenant sweeping absolutely everything, even if they do love it.
Best Cinematography
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
3 in a row for Chivo.
Or they go Mad Max. One or the other.
Deakins probably doesn’t win this.
Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
If Morricone wins, then he’s your overwhelming favorite to take the Oscar. This is also 4/5 your actual category, which is interesting. The Revenant is ineligible. Also interesting that Carol was more loved by the BAFTAs than the Academy and still didn’t manage a Score nomination here.
I think they go Morricone.
Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max.
I’m fascinated that The Revenant didn’t get nominated here. Not that it really should have. No Danish Girl either.
Making this easier for Max to take.
Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
They’re a good prognosticator. So I say Mad Max or Cinderella takes this.
Let’s say Cinderella to make things interesting. Though if Max wins this, it’ll win the Oscar.
Best Makeup & Hair
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Revenant. Mad Max is backup. They don’t ever go off the board unless something isn’t nominated.
Best Sound
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This is usually Sound Mixing, not Editing.
I say Mad Max. Maybe they take The Revenant. Star Wars is third choice. I think Max takes it though.
Best Visual Effects
Ant-Man
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
They’re usually good at guessing the winner. A lack of a Revenant nomination makes me think that can’t win at the Oscars, and makes me think Mad Max takes it all the way.
So I’m guessing Mad Max and am really curious to see if they go Star Wars.
Best Animated Film
Inside Out
Minions
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Inside Out can’t lose.
Though actually, Shaun the Sheep is British… that could theoretically happen and change nothing at the Oscars. Still, not voting against Pixar.
Also, fucking Minions…
Best Foreign Language Film
The Assassin
Force Majeure
Theeb
Timbuktu
Wild Tales
Technically 4/5 were nominated. Just not this year. I guess that means Force Majeure or Wild Tales wins.
Let’s say Force Majeure so we can be happy it got something.
Best Documentary
Amy
Cartel Land
He Named Me Malala
Listen to Me Marlon
Sherpa
Amy. Easy winner.
Best Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Debbie Tucker Green, Second Coming
Naji Abu Nowar + Rupert Lloyd, Theeb
Sean McCallister + Elhum Shakerifar, A Syrian Love Story
Stephen Fingleton, The Survivalist
Let’s say The Survivalist. Because it’s always something random that I never expect.
Best British Animated Short
Edmond
Manoman
Prologue
Manoman. Because I have no idea.
Best British Live Action Short
Elephant
Mining Poems or Odes
Operator
Over
Samuel-613
Uhh… Elephant. Because why not? No idea.
Rising Star Award
Bel Powley
Brie Larson
Dakota Johnson
John Boyega
Taron Egerton
The public is voting on this. So let’s assume John Boyega or Taron Egerton wins.
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I wrote this up in 20 minutes. I’m impressed with myself for that.
Gonna get this up just as the show starts. Go me.
I’ll be back in like three hours with a recap.
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