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Oscars 2016: BFCA Nominations

The Critics Choice nominations were announced today, and this is one of the big four signposts for how the Oscars will turn out. So this is exciting. Something relatively real I can look at until the Golden Globe nominations come out in two weeks.

For quick reference, last year all eight Best Picture nominees were nominated by BFCA. 2014, 7 of 8. 2013, 8 of 9. 2012, 8 of 9. 2011, 9 of 9. Get my point? These are the movies you’re gonna see all season long, so start getting used to it.

Here are your BFCA nominations for 2016:

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Lion

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Sully

This is the first time I’ve seen Lion anywhere seriously, which interests me. I didn’t think Harvey seriously had a horse in the race this year. Still need to see it, so I don’t know how good it is.

And I know people loved Hell or High Water, but I didn’t seriously think that would be a major contender. I guess maybe that’s the lack of Sicario love spilling over into an almost assured nomination there. I’ll wait to see what the PGA and others do before I overreact.

I could have guessed on Sully, Manchester, Loving, Moonlight and La La Land. Those aren’t surprising. Arrival seemed like a fairly safe choice.

This is my first time seeing Fences anywhere. That might be coming on strong over the next few weeks. I need to see it first before I say anything. Though it does feel like a safe bet to do well at the guilds and th Globes, so that’s looking promising.

Hacksaw — still didn’t see that coming. I wonder if that can hold up the momentum. I’ll be interested in seeing how it does.

Not gonna guess a winner right now. I’m only interested in the nominees currently. And based on this list, I’m not unopposed to them.

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Denzel Washington, Fences

Yes to Chazelle. Yes to Jenkins. Yes to Villeneuve. Haven’t seen Washington. Mackenzie was solid, so good for him. Gibson was solid, so good for him. Lonergan I don’t necessarily need, but sure. It’s early. But these are directors I like, so I’m okay with this.

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Tom Hanks, Sully

Denzel Washington, Fences

Affleck has looked like a lock leading up, so that makes sense. Hanks felt safe, not that he seemed like a particularly strong nominee. But I get it. Let’s see if SAG goes for him too. Denzel seems like an easy nominee. Garfield, with Hacksaw and Silence, should get some love from the guilds, if not an eventual nomination. Edgerton seems like an easy nominee. I’d be surprised if Gosling made it all the way through to Best Actor (because he never seems to), but the film’s looking like a behemoth currently, so who knows.

I haven’t even calibrated my brain to thinking about what the top performances are, but right now, five of these six sound good to me, and I love Tom Hanks, so sure.

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Arrival

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

There’s Amy Adams again. I really need to see that performance again. Bening makes sense. Hupper I need to see. Negga and Stone I agree with, having seen them. And Portman — that’s the movie I can’t wait to watch, and I imagine she’s leading the pack at the moment, based on buzz and stuff.

I’d feel pretty confident saying that five of these six (Adams, Bening, Negga, Portman and Stone) are the likely nominees, or at the very least would make a solid list. But it’s early. Maybe there are people I’m forgetting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Is Dev Patel a supporting part in his own movie? Is this 2008 all over again?

Lucas Hedges, could not agree more. Bridges was awesome. Nice to see the Foster love, but no way anybody but Bridges gets that nomination. I agree with Michael Shannon being nominated for anything, even though I’ve yet to see that movie. And Ali — cool. He was awesome in Moonlight, though I could have used more of him in it.

There’s definitely room for more people here, and I want to see how this one shakes out over the next month.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Janelle Monáe, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Michelle Williams seems likely. Viola Davis seems like a lock. Harris has hit everything I’ve seen so far. Monae, I was surprised with in Moonlight, so I hope she’s good. Kidman — no idea. Could just be a Harvey special. I’ll reserve judgment until I see it. And no idea about Gerwig either. Gotta  reserve a lot of judgment in this category, only having seen two of the performances.

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Alex R. Hibbert, Moonlight

Lewis MacDougall, A Monster Calls

Madina Nalwanga, Queen of Katwe

Sunny Pawar, Lion

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Does Steinfeld still count as little even though you nominated her proper for True Grit six years ago? Okay.

Hedges and MacDougall were both terrific. Hibbert was really good too, assuming he’s the one who played the younger version and not the high school one. The little kid was much more impressive to me in those scenes. The girl in Katwe was fine. And I haven’t seen Lion so I have no idea.

Hedges is gonna win this, most likely, and he’ll deserve it. Were Hedges not here, MacDougall would be my choice.

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

20th Century Women

Fences

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Yeah, that about makes sense.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

La La Land

Moonlight

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

Loving

Hell or High Water

YES! The Lobster!

Take that out (because that’ll never fucking happen) and you have a real solid list of screenplays.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Lion

Nocturnal Animals

Arrival

Sully

Hidden Figures

Fences

How could August Wilson have adapted his own play if he died eleven years ago?

Arrival seems like the most impressive, since I think it’s based on a short story. Though I need to see half the category, so I don’t rightly know most of it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Jackie

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

La La Land

Arrival

Based on trailer alone, Jackie will be nominated. La La Land absolutely. Arrival, I’m surprised it’s getting so much love. I really didn’t see this coming. And Moonlight looked nice. And Nocturnal — haven’t seen, but A Single Man was gorgeously shot, so it makes sense.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Jackie

La La Land

Live by Night

These five make complete sense.

BEST EDITING

La La Land

Hacksaw Ridge

Sully

Moonlight

Arrival

These also make complete sense.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Love & Friendship

They like them some old timey costumes, don’t they?

I want to see if the guild calls La La Land contemporary or fantasy.

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Jackie

Star Trek Beyond

This is meaningless, because we’re gonna have a weird shortlist to pick from.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

A Monster Calls

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

The Jungle Book

This is the only love A Monster Calls gets, huh? Something it has zero chance at winning and will never be nominated for. Okay.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

The Red Turtle

Trolls

Zootopia

So the five likely nominees and then Trolls, which was… yeah.

BEST ACTION MOVIE

Captain America: Civil War

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Hacksaw Ridge

Jason Bourne

One of these things is not like the others…

BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Benedict Cumberbatch, Doctor Strange

Matt Damon, Jason Bourne

Chris Evans, Captain America: Civil War

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

They’ll give this to Reynolds. You know they will.

BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Gal Gadot, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Scarlett Johansson, Captain America: Civil War

Margot Robbie, Suicide Squad

Tilda Swinton, Doctor Strange

Kinda funny that three of these are supporting characters, and that there aren’t five.

I guess they haven’t seen Passengers yet?

BEST COMEDY

Central Intelligence

Deadpool

Don’t Think Twice

The Edge of Seventeen

Hail, Caesar!

The Nice Guys

Rooting for Hail, Caesar or The Nice Guys here.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Ryan Gosling, The Nice Guys

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Dwayne Johnson, Central Intelligence

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Please give this to Gosling. Grant is more dramatic, but he’d be good too.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Sally Field, Hello, My Name Is Doris

Kate McKinnon, Ghostbusters

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

McKinnon? Really?

Just give it to Meryl and be done with it.

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE

10 Cloverfield Lane

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Don’t Breathe

Star Trek Beyond

The Witch

Rooting for The Witch. Though Arrival should clearly win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Elle

The Handmaiden

Julieta

Neruda

The Salesman

Toni Erdmann

Good news is I have the ability to have seen almost all these movies (sans Erdmann, which I’ll see soon enough). But I’ve only seen two of them. So no idea.

BEST SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” from La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” from Trolls

“City of Stars,” from La La Land

“Drive It Like You Stole It,” from Sing Street

“How Far I’ll Go,” from Moana

“The Rules Don’t Apply,” Rules Don’t Apply

Two notes. First, the minor one — of course they fucking nominated Timberlake.

Second, and the important one — is this actually a good year for film music? Because I think it might be. There are at least a half dozen more songs than this that could count. There’s legitimately good stuff this year. Which is exciting for once.

BEST SCORE

Arrival

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

I haven’t started delving into the scores, but sure.

– – – – – – – – —

So those are your BFCA nominations. I’ll go back over these at least three times over the next seven weeks. They might not mean a whole lot now, but they’ll be meaningful later.

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2 responses

  1. Jake

    August Wilson wrote the screenplay for Fences before he died. Tony Kushner was brought in to make any necessary adjustments, but so little needed to be changed that (per Guild regulations) he could not receive a screen credit. Instead, he’s listed as an executive producer.

    December 1, 2016 at 10:20 am

  2. Ed

    What about the Independent Spirit Awards? What are your thoughts on that?

    December 1, 2016 at 11:03 am

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