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Oscars 2016: BFCA Awards

The Critics Choice Awards were tonight. This is our first look at what the major awards are gonna look like.

The winner of BFCA’s Best Picture has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars 8 out of the past 10 years. Same for Best Actor. 8 out of 10. Best Actress is 6 out of 10 (with a technicality). Supporting Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 (with a technicality). Best Director is 6 out of 10.

The point is — you should listen to them when they vote for something. We have to take this alongside the rest of the precursors, but for now, this will be interesting to use as a measuring stick to set the pace.

Here are your winners for the 2016 Critics Choice Awards:

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Lion

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Sully

Winner: La La Land

This concerns me. I can already see people turning on this movie. I’m not dissatisfied with the result, but it does concern me. This is looking like 2011 all over again. I really shouldn’t care one way or the other, because people are gonna complain regardless, but this is the result I’d have guessed from them. This or Moonlight.

In the past ten years, the only two Best Picture winners they missed were Birdman (they had Boyhood) and The King’s Speech (they had The Social Network). Not bad. They had Spotlight in a contentious year. They had The Departed in a contentious year. That’s pretty good. Also, if they don’t get it right, they get the second choice. So at worst, La La Land is gonna be the movie that loses to the eventual winner. (I know you can’t measure that, but there’s always clearly a two picture race at the top, most of the time.)

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Denzel Washington, Fences

Winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Well that makes sense. It was him or Jenkins. Whichever won Best Picture was likely gonna win this. So sure.

They tend to miss on Best Director more than the others. They had George Miller last year and Linklater the year before that. Both times Inarritu won the Oscar. They had Affleck in 2012, and we all know he wasn’t even nominated. They also had Fincher in 2010, to go along with Best Picture. Best Picture and Best Director have split three out of the past five years, so this is far from a sure thing. Though depending on who gets on, I’m not sure if there’s anyone out there who beats him. That’s looking at it objectively. Contenders-wise, once this sets a pace, it’s gonna be hard for someone to jump up. But it’s early. So let’s hold a beat before we crown anyone.

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Tom Hanks, Sully

Denzel Washington, Fences

Winner: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

He made the most sense. Denzel would have been a surprise. No one else seemed as likely. All the presumed frontrunners are winning so far.

They only missed Redmayne two years ago (in favor of Michael Keaton) and Dujardin in 2010 (they had Clooney). They’re generally really good here, and given the love for the Affleck performance, this is looking like a pretty sure thing. I also can’t see many alternatives in the way of a category this year. Looking like it’ll be five out of these six.

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Arrival

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Winner: Natalie Portman, Jackie

This might be a sweep year for her. And I don’t know if I can disagree.

Their only misses here were 2012 (Chastain over Lawrence, they had), 2011 (they had Viola over Meryl) and 2008, where Kate Winslet won in Supporting for them. So it’s only really a half wrong tally.

The only people who beat her are Emma Stone or Annette Bening. Only Bening seems likely to get any sort of push. Gonna be real hard to beat Natalie and that performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Winner: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

I’m not sold this happens at the Oscars, but this does make sense, him as a frontrunner. I want to see how this category specifically develops. He might also take this one home in the end.

They missed last year (they had Sly), 2012 (Waltz wasn’t nominated for them) and 2006 (they had Eddie Murphy). So assuming the eventual winner is nominated here, Ali is a top two choie to win Best Supporting Actor this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Janelle Monáe, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Winner: Viola Davis, Fences

Yeah, that makes sense. She might be a lead. I still need to see the movie. This could be both an easy win for her and an appropriate one, given her near misses in the past.

They missed only Tilda Swinton in 2007 (and Winslet won Supporting in ’08, throwing that off). So this is looking like a probable win for Viola Davis right now.

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Alex R. Hibbert, Moonlight

Lewis MacDougall, A Monster Calls

Madina Nalwanga, Queen of Katwe

Sunny Pawar, Lion

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Winner: Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Oh, this was no contest. He might actually be nominated.

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

20th Century Women

Fences

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Winner: Moonlight

No contest. This should have won. This should win at SAG too.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

La La Land

Moonlight

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

Loving

Hell or High Water

Winner: (tie) La La Land, (tie) Manchester by the Sea

Manchester seems most likely to win at the Oscars. Musicals don’t do well in the Screenplay categories. Let’s see if they even nominate it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Lion

Nocturnal Animals

Arrival

Sully

Hidden Figures

Fences

Winner: Arrival

Wow. Curious to see if that holds up.

I haven’t looked into their past in the Screenplay categories, so let’s do that quickly…

They’ve missed once since 2009 in Original. And it was 2009.

They’re only 3/7 in Adapted. So they’re much better with Original Screenplay. Makes sense. I can’t see Arrival going on to win, even though anything’s possible. Gotta see what gets nominated before we think about it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Jackie

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

La La Land

Arrival

Winner: La La Land

They’re all in on La La Land, aren’t they?

They’re 6 out of 7 in this category. The only miss is 2011, where Hugo won the Oscar and they had a tie between Tree of Life and War Horse.

Looking positive for this in Cinematography.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Jackie

La La Land

Live by Night

Winner: La La Land

Damn, did this sweep all the categories? Shit, man.

They’re pretty good with this one, though it’s generally not that hard.

BEST EDITING

La La Land

Hacksaw Ridge

Sully

Moonlight

Arrival

Winner: La La Land

Fuck, man! This movie won everything!

This category is dependent on nominations, so I’m not looking how they do.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Love & Friendship

Winner: Jackie

Makes sense.

I’m doing this from memory, but it looks like they haven’t missed a winner in this category yet.

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Jackie

Star Trek Beyond

Winner: Jackie

This is solely dependent on a shortlist, so this is irrelevant.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

A Monster Calls

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

The Jungle Book

Winner: The Jungle Book

This is irrelevant. Let’s get a shortlist first before we bother with this category.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

The Red Turtle

Trolls

Zootopia

Winner: Zootopia

Really? Okay.

They’re 7/10 here. It’s hard to fuck up Animated Feature.

I’d be real curious to see if they actually give Zootopia the Oscar.

They’ll all be nominated, so let’s see.

BEST ACTION MOVIE

Captain America: Civil War

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Hacksaw Ridge

Jason Bourne

Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

Not an action movie. This won for “Best Battle Scenes.” Which is fine.

BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Benedict Cumberbatch, Doctor Strange

Matt Damon, Jason Bourne

Chris Evans, Captain America: Civil War

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Winner: Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Well this was unfair.

BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Gal Gadot, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Scarlett Johansson, Captain America: Civil War

Margot Robbie, Suicide Squad

Tilda Swinton, Doctor Strange

Winner: Margot Robbie, Suicide Squad

Yawn.

BEST COMEDY

Central Intelligence

Deadpool

Don’t Think Twice

The Edge of Seventeen

Hail, Caesar!

The Nice Guys

Winner: Deadpool

Not a… honestly I don’t even care.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Ryan Gosling, The Nice Guys

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Dwayne Johnson, Central Intelligence

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Winner: Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Sure.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Sally Field, Hello, My Name Is Doris

Kate McKinnon, Ghostbusters

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Winner: Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Shocker. Meryl wins an award.

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE

10 Cloverfield Lane

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Don’t Breathe

Star Trek Beyond

The Witch

Winner: Arrival

This was unfair.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Elle

The Handmaiden

Julieta

Neruda

The Salesman

Toni Erdmann

Winner: Elle

We don’t have a shortlist yet, so I don’t know how this is gonna turn out.

Though I highly doubt this can win that category. But maybe I’m wrong. We’ll see. Let’s get a shortlist first.

BEST SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” from La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” from Trolls

“City of Stars,” from La La Land

“Drive It Like You Stole It,” from Sing Street

“How Far I’ll Go,” from Moana

“The Rules Don’t Apply,” Rules Don’t Apply

Winner: “City of Stars,” from La La Land

This category is a total minefield, but that looks decent. I also like most of these songs, so that’s good.

They’re generally either on point in this category or way off. Depends on what gets nominated. This is one of those weird categories that’s a total crapshoot based on what they nominate.

BEST SCORE

Arrival

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Winner: La La Land

Makes sense.

They’re 6/10 here in the past decade. Though two of those misses were ineligible at the Oscars. I don’t really look to them for Score, so this doesn’t matter so much.

– – – – – – – – – – –

So yeah. Those are your winners. Let’s see how the rest of the year shapes up. Golden Globe nominations are… tomorrow, I think. So that’ll be interesting.

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