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Oscars 2016: SAG Award Nominations

And now the SAG Awards. Oscar season is here, people.

These are the first awards that truly matter. BFCA was medium, the Globes were light. This is the one that will truly set the pace.

I’m already thinking about what the outliers are gonna be, and which random acting nomination Harvey Weinstein is gonna manage to get this year

Here are your 2016 SAG nominations:

Best Ensemble

Captain Fantastic

Fences

Hidden Figures

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Captain Fantastic should surprise everyone. The rest should make sense. I feel like Fences only has like five characters in it, but I see what they’re going for here. SAG has gotten very race conscious over the past few years.

I’d be real surprised if Moonlight doesn’t win this.

This also means very little in terms of the Oscars, though people do try to retroactively go, “Oh, but it won SAG and then it won Best Picture!” Like Spotlight last year. They have been fairly on point the last couple of years, though. And La La Land, seeming like the big competition to Moonlight at the moment, doesn’t feel like something that would really get nominated here. So I get it.

This is Moonlight’s to lose. Maybe they go Manchester on the real “actor” thing, but Moonlight seems like the total package for them.

(Also, you’ll notice my analysis is entirely based on what might happen and not what I want to happen. So many people tell me what they think is gonna happen because it’s what they want to happen. I don’t care about that and that’s not my game here. My game is only guessing what will happen. My opinions are completely separate from this.)

Best Actor

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

Mortensen is somewhat of a surprise, but less so, coming off the Globe nomination. You have to take him real seriously now, though SAG has proven in the past to really like him as an actor. So I’m not 100% sold that he’ll be nominated just yet.

Joel Edgerton and Tom Hanks are still very much in the picture. Hanks had a weird one in 2013 where he was nominated for SAG but missed the Oscars. This could be a reverse case scenario, as we all saw what happened with American Sniper — it didn’t do that well in the precursors and jumped out to all sorts of surprise nominations. And Edgerton seems also like he’d be a contender too. I’m not ruling either of them out, so that gives me, at the moment and before I think in depth about who else there could be, seven contenders for Best Actor.

I think we can all feel at this point that four of them are locked. Or should feel locked anyway. I wouldn’t want to guess against Affleck, Gosling, Garfield or Denzel at this point, given how everything is shaping up.

Also — Casey Affleck shouldn’t lose this at all. I can’t imagine he loses this. This is looking like a real open and shut case in the acting categories all around this year.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, Arrival

Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Emily Blunt. Man, I forgot about that movie. That was supposed to be a thing. Leave it to SAG to vote for that because they’re supposed to. This will not happen at the Oscars, and please do not even try to guess her. No. Just no.

Natalie is locked. Meryl is gonna be locked because she’s Meryl. Emma is locked. Amy Adams is looking more locked by the minute.

Ruth Negga is definitely in contention and seems like she’s gonna get the Blunt spot. Isabelle Huppert is also there too. I’m not 100% sold on her getting nominated, but she seems likely. So at that point, it’s 6 nominees out of 5 spaces and you gotta figure it out.

Natalie should win this category easily. Emma will give her a nice run, but that’s like the guy who keeps pace with Usain Bolt for 35 meters. At a certain point, Natalie’s running away with this.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

This is bascially your BFCA list. Swap off Michael Shannon or the second Hell or High Water nomination for Hugh Grant and there you are.

This is also close to your Globes list. Swap off for the proper Florence Foster Jenkins nomination and put on Lucas Hedges instead of the Nocturnal Animals nomination, and there you are.

I’m gonna want to see what BAFTA does here, but as it stands, this is looking mostly like your list. There are definitely a few more fringe contenders to show up, but Ali, Bridges, Hedges and Patel look pretty likely going forward.

Ali is your frontrunner until someone shows me different. Figuring he’ll take this.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Davis yes, Kidman looking more likely by the deay, Williams yes. Spencer maybe. Hidden Figures still needs to come out and get whatever it’s gonna get. I know they like her, so I’m not automatically calling her a nominee just yet. But this is a big step forward for that. And Harris of course. So I’d call 3/5 locked, Spencer is open and Kidman looks very solid. This matched your Globes list and wasn’t far off from your BFCA list.

Can’t think about who else there’s gonna be here at the moment. Probably gonna need to see BAFTA to get a real sense.

Looking like an easy Viola win here. Not thinking anyone really has enough to beat her on performance (not that I’ve seen it yet) or not having won yet. MAYBE Michelle Williams, but I’m not thinking she can do it. I think you’re gonna get to black actor wins in the Supporting categories this year to make a statement. I’m talking Oscars and SAG, but right now mostly SAG.

– – – – –

And now TV. Oh joy.

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

The Crown

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Stranger Things

Westworld

The Crown seems like your winner, based on how nuts people are going about it. Stranger Things fever might have passed. Westworld doesn’t seem loved enough to get votes.

Let’s say The Crown. Stranger Things will be the populist choice, so maybe they’ll go with that. I’m thinking one or the other. Not that I care.

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

The Big Bang Theory

Black-ish

Modern Family

Orange Is the New Black

Veep

Doesn’t Modern Family always win this?

Maybe Veep because of the election?

Maybe Orange Is the New Black because?

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

John Lithgow, The Crown

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Spacey won’t win, unless they’re really trying to say something.

Malek or Lithgow, I assume. Probably Malek. I don’t know what This Is Us is, but Sterling K. Brown is nominated twice. So which do they vote for him in? I assume more the other one than this. But who knows.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish

Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Ty Burrell, Modern Family

William H. Macy, Shameless

Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

This is always Jeffrey Tambor’s category, right? Macy got a token win a few years back, I think. Burell’s won this before. Burgess won’t win, and Anthony Anderson would be awesome, but no one even knows what that show is. Tambor seems pretty automatic at this point.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things

Claire Foy, The Crown

Thandie Newton, Westworld

Winona Ryder, Stranger Things

Robin Wright, House of Cards

They’re gonna vote for Millie Bobby Brown. They’ll fucking love to give this to her. Claire Foy is second, Winona third. Thandie fourth. Robin Wright fifth.

I think Millie wins this.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black

Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie

Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

Doesn’t Dreyfus win this every year? Aduba won once, I think that was her moment and they’re off her. How do you split Fonda and Tomlin? And Kemper, I doubt it. So let’s figure they go routine here, since I don’t care enough to put thought into it.

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Riz Ahmed, The Night Of

Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Bryan Cranston, All the Way

John Turturro, The Night Of

Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Oh yeah. I forgot there were heavy hitters in this one. Maybe Brown doesn’t win. Plus he’s up against Vance, who played Johnny Cochran. Then you have Ahmed vs. Turturro. That’s tough.

Cranston might sneak this one out on a double vote split.

Rooting for Turturro, even though I’ve not watched The Night Of at all. Ahmed is fine. Cranston probably wins though, knowing them.

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Bryce Dallas Howard, Black Mirror

Felicity Huffman, American Crime

Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill

Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Kerry Washington, Confirmation

Sarah Paulson, right? Or maybe Washington or Huffman? I feel like Howard is a red herring. Let’s say Paulson. Because I’m so beyond fucks to give at this point.

– – – – – – – – – –

Those are your SAG nominations. They mean a little to me now, but a lot next month once all the evidence is in.

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One response

  1. Your television analyses are so delightfully nutsy cuckoo.

    December 14, 2016 at 2:56 pm

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