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Oscars 2016: WGA Nominations

The Writer’s Guild announced their nominations.

Generally you can only really believe about 60% of what you see with them, just because every year a bunch of scripts go in different categories (two years ago, Whiplash was nominated in Original at WGA and was pushed Adapted for the Oscars), or are just straight up ineligible at the WGA for various reasons. So you can only go so far in believing the WGA nominations in terms of translating into Oscar nominations.

That said, let’s take a look at what they nominated this year:

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Wouldn’t really argue with any of these on the surface.

However, getting into the nuts and bolts — Moonlight and Loving are both going to be considered adapted screenplays by the Academy, which is gonna blow this category wide open.

Right now, you have to consider Hell or High Water, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea mortal locks to make it in, since this is a year without a lot of original scripts to go around.

Thinking about the original scripts that could factor in at the Oscars…

Florence Foster Jenkins and Zootopia were both ineligible. The former could be a factor and the later seems unlikely just because animated movies rarely get nominated in the screenplay category, even when they’re very good and well-received.

Jackie is gonna be a big contender, so let’s keep that one firmly in the discussion.

Captain Fantastic is a dark horse contender, seeing as how Viggo Mortensen has a legitimate shot at Best Actor for it. I wouldn’t rule out 20th Century Women.

Let’s not totally rule out The Lobster, though I’m not thinking that’ll be wholly embraced enough to nominate. But you never know. This looks like a weird year where you could get a Toni Erdmann, foreign type nomination on there.

It’ll be interesting to see which way the other groups go with their categories, to see if anything can be illuminated for us. Otherwise we’re flying pretty blind on this one for those last two spots.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Deadpool

Fences

Hidden Figures

Nocturnal Animals

This makes sense, given that two of your Oscar nominees (or one of them, at least) were in Original here and will be Adapted there.

Arrival will be nominated for sure.

Hidden Figures and Nocturnal Animals look like solid contenders and probable nominees.

Fences is an August Wilson tribute and nothing more. Deadpool is the cool nominee they throw on when other shit ends up ineligible.

Moonlight and Loving will come in and be big factors, specifically the former.

Lion was ineligible and looks like that will snag a spot as well somewhere. Silence seems an unlikely nominee but must be mentioned. Sully is in the conversation as well.

This one is usually easier to figure out, since a lot of your major Oscar contenders end up on the list. I think we have about enough right now to guess a category, but since we’ve got about two weeks or so left, let’s hold off and see what happens.

I’m thinking this year they won’t stray too far off the path laid out here, minus maybe a surprise in the Original Screenplay category.

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