Oscars 2017: 74th Golden Globes Predictions
The Golden Globes are tonight.
I’ll be doing what I usually do for these — getting blasted drunk and texting everyone all the ridiculous shit I see.
I think we all realize how little stock I put into them. It’s a glorified party, and while they do try to influence the Oscars season, mostly it’s just the Hollywood Foreign Press getting every famous person they can into the same room and schmoozing with them.
But, you know, it’s a big awards show that’s become a big deal. So we talk about it.
Best Picture – Drama
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
I think we’d all be shocked if Moonlight doesn’t win this.
If it’s not Moonlight, they’re gonna give it to Manchester by the Sea.
Hell or High Water is a third choice, Hacksaw fourth, Lion fifth.
85% Moonlight, 10% Manchester by the Sea, 5% the rest of the field.
This is a situation where either they’re gonna try to set the tone for the rest of the season and go Moonlight, or they really loved Manchester and don’t care about what everyone else does.
I’m thinking it’ll be the former.
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
20th Century Women
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
If La La Land doesn’t win this, there’s a huge problem.
95% La La Land, 5% the field.
I have no idea what wins if not La La Land.
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
This one will be interesting.
40% Chazelle, 30% Jenkins, 15% Gibson, 10% Lonergan, 5% Ford.
I assume they go Chazelle, but they could just as easily go Jenkins. You’d think if they loved Manchester that they’d go with Lonergan, but I don’t think so. I think they like Mel, and would give him one over the others. I think they’d try to start that narrative.
This should be either Jenkins or Chazelle, and I feel like they’re more likely to go Chazelle. To see them double up on Moonlight would be impressive and actually kind of respectable.
Best Actor – Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Egerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
They have a chance to make a statement here, but I don’t think they will. I think Casey Affleck wins this.
If it’s not Casey Affleck, I have no idea who wins. Denzel just got a Lifetime award from them. He’d be a bold choice. Mortensen stands no chance. That would not only be bold, but also probably stupid. So I don’t think they’d do it. Since they do kind of pride themselves in being first to get things going.
Casey Affleck is a lock here. We’ll talk if he doesn’t win.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
This is not an automatic for Ryan Gosling. Yes, he’s the favorite, but he’s not a lock to win. Ryan Reynolds is a real contender, and feels like he’s actually the one who’s gonna end up winning this. Also don’t discount Colin Farrell, who they also really like a lot. I think that movie is too slight for them to ultimately take, so it’ll be one of the Ryans who wins this.
Jonah Hill is clearly just them liking him and Hugh Grant they’ve always loved, and is a solid nominee to boot.
It’s either Gosling or Reynolds, and I feel like Gosling is probably the favorite, just because he also had The Nice Guys this year, but I really wouldn’t be remotely surprised if Reynolds won this one.
Best Actress – Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Natalie Portman will win this. 75%. 15% that Isabelle Huppert wins. They could easily go with her too. Amy Adams won’t win, unless they want to start that train a-rolling. Chastain won’t win, and Negga would be a really bold (and inspired) choice.
Don’t think Natalie loses this one. Again, talk to me when Huppert or someone else wins.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Haley Steinfeld, Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Emma Stone should win this easily.
Annette Bening is the alternate.
Steinfeld is never gonna win, and neither is Collins. Collins was the token nominee for a film they had to put somewhere, and Steinfeld is a previous nominee in a good film that deserved some attention. Good on them. But she won’t win.
Meryl is Meryl and always contends, but this isn’t a Meryl winner. They have two alternatives to go with, and they’re clearly too in love with La La Land to pass up Emma Stone.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Simon Helberg being nominated is one of those weird Golden Globes things that happens. Will Ferrell was nominated here for The Producers. They do this kind of thing.
Mahershala Ali should win this. Unless Bridges is actually gonna ride this to a win, I wouldn’t figure him to win. Though he might be second choice. Patel might ultimately get nominated but he won’t win anything. Aaron Taylor-Johnson would be cool, but I think they’d only take him if they thought he were a serious contender for a nomination. And I don’t know if they think that.
Ali is the safe bet and the likely winner, and Bridges is the alternate, them being the two Oscar favorites.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
This one will be an interesting category.
I assume Viola Davis wins this, but it could just as easily be Naomie Harris or even Michelle Williams.
Spencer won’t win and Kidman won’t win.
It’s Davis or Harris, with a little bit of Williams in there as a spoiler.
I think Viola’s more a shoo-in for the Oscar at this point, but Naomie Harris could sweep everything. I think she might be the better choice for this one. She feels like a good winner for the Globes.
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
They will probably give this to Tom Ford. They won’t give it to Damien Chazelle. They may give it to Taylor Sheridan. They may give it to Barry Jenkins.
I’m thinking Tom Ford. Or Lonergan. Longergan makes sense too. One or the other. Jenkins is spoiler. If you’re putting money down, Lonergan is the choice. But Ford is what my gut tells me.
La La Land
La La Land will win this. Let’s not put too much thought into it.
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” from Trolls
“City of Stars,” from La La Land
“Faith,” from Sing
“Gold,” from Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” from Moana
They pick weird shit here. Let’s assume Lin-Manuel Miranda wins for Moana.
The backup is Timberlake.
Then La La Land.
Iggy Pop and Ariana Grande/Stevie Wonder (and whoever wrote that one) are runner ups.
It’s gonna be Lin-Manuel or Timberlake. You know them. Fucking Diane Warren won for a Cher song in this category.
Best Foreign Film
Well two of these can be nominated for the Oscar. Should we assume they go with those? Or will they go with Elle just because?
I’m picking Toni Erdmann. Let’s just assume that sweeps all the awards, because that makes my life easier come guessing time.
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini
I forgot they didn’t nominate Finding Dory.
Zootopia will win this and we’ll have to have this whole fucking discussion for another month about whether or not that’s actually gonna win the Oscar.
Kubo or Moana should win this, but I’m assuming it’ll be Zootopia and waiting to see what else they go with if not that.
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And now for the lightning round….
Best TV Series – Drama
Game Of Thrones
This Is Us
Stranger Things will be the obvious choice, and likely winner. I’m thinking either The Crown or This Is Us will win, because they like that shit.
Best TV Series – Musical/Comedy
Mozart in the Jungle
Atlanta. Because I think Mozart won last year and Transparent won. Veep’s always here and Black-ish has no shot. Let’s say Atlanta, even though they’ll probably go back to an old standby.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath
I feel like Rami Malek won last year. Maybe again? Odenkirk seems easy. Fuck it, let’s say Matthew Rhys. Why not? I don’t give a fuck.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Nick Nolte, Graves
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Has Tambor lost one of these yet?
Just for excrement and chuckles, let’s say Gael Garcia Bernal wins.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Americans
Winona Ryder, Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
Claire Foy. Because why not?
Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy
Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce
Issa Rae, Insecure
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracy Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Uhh… Issa Rae. The one I don’t know usually wins. Bloom won, Dreyfus always wins, Rodriguez won, they’ll never pick the black nominee and I don’t want Sarah Jessica Parker to win.
See how easy that works out?
Best Miniseries or TV Movie
The Night Manager
The Night Of
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
They’ll give it to People vs. OJ, but The Night Manager should win.
Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
John Turturro, The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Let’s say HIddleston, but honestly they can give it to any of these people.
Turturro would be cool.
Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Charlotte Rampling, London Spy
Kerry Washington, Confirmation
Sarah Paulson, I figure.
Rampling as an alternate, maybe, because I have no fucking clue.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
John Lithgow, The Crown
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
John Travolta, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Let’s call it Sterling K. Brown. Though we all love us some Hugh Laurie and his great acceptance speeches. Maybe they do too.
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Lena Heady, Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld
My vote is Thandie Newton, though they’ll probably give it to Mandy Moore. Which means Chrissy Metz will win.
It gets real scientific here, guys.
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It’ll be all Chinese food and liquor here, guys. Stop on by if you want.