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And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 89th Academy Awards Nominations

Now that we have our Oscar nominations, we can stop dealing in one form of guesswork, and engage in another.

But before we do that, let’s take a minute to react about what is or isn’t nominated this year, what decisions they made that will change how I go about this in the future, what surprises the shit out of me, and just what we think about this list, because this is the only time I really get to sit here and do this. Because from here on out, it’s all about figuring out who from these lists will win, since these are the nominees, and nothing will change that.

Except a good disqualification and scandal. And that’s always fun.

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

I believe I may have had that.

Amazing the chance that was taken this year was guessing that the PGA would get it right.

9/9 for me, and I nailed it cold.

Of course Deadpool wasn’t nominated anywhere like I said.

The only films that were hovering around that didn’t make it on were Nocturnal Animals, Silence and maybe Sully or something like that. There wasn’t a lot of reason to think they’d get the overall votes needed to hit that threshold, and as such, I doubled down on the PGA nominees, which has just matched perfectly for the first time in twenty years and for the sixth time ever.

Now that we have our list of nine, let’s do what I always do and rank them in order of their likelihood of winning:

9. Fences

8. Lion

7. Hacksaw Ridge

6. Hidden Figures

5. Arrival

4. Manchester by the Sea

3. Hell or High Water

2. Moonlight

1. La La Land

At first blush, this is how I feel. Of course, you’re supposed to skew toward the Best Editing nominees, and putting Hacksaw so low goes against all logic, but I truly think people will, in their ballots, vote those other films higher up by and large.

Honestly, this is another 2014 scenario, where the top two choices are the only ones with a chance at winning.

Or another 2011 scenario, where Manchester is the Descendants of the group.

Either way, I think we all see where this is headed.

9/9 here for me. Big start so far.

Big takeaways: Not a whole lot. Two-horse race. La La Land vs. Moonlight. Hell or High Water, with an Editing nomination, is a dangerous film, but it still won’t win. Silence ultimately did not catch on with the Academy as I figured (as I feel a lot of people would not accept going into today). Otherwise, about as expected.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Well, I was almost right.

I figured Garth Davis wasn’t the choice here, and I knew better than to assume they would throw Martin Scorsese on. I went too far in on Tom Ford, but that’s fine. I can accept that mistake. I did, however, put Mel as my alternate, because something in my mind told me this is where they’d go if not Tom Ford.

So 4/5 for me and my alternate made it on.

This was pretty much guaranteed to be four out of five for anyone guessing, and that fifth spot was the one you had to get lucky with.

At this point, it’s all gonna come down to what the DGA does. I can’t see a split happening this year, so I’m thinking they go all in on La La Land all around.

Rankings:

5. Gibson

4. Villeneuve

3. Lonergan

2. Jenkins

1. Chazelle

Big takeaways: Comeback complete for Mel. Good for him. Otherwise they doubled down on the films that seemed like the biggest contenders all around.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Actor

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

This was a gimme all around. Everyone should have had 5/5 here. This matched SAG and basically every list there was to match.

Affleck basically has this won by sheer fact of there’s no one else to take him down. Denzel really feels like the only one that can do it. Garfield won’t, and Mortensen is lucky to be nominated. Gosling? Does he have the firepower?

Affleck should walk to this unless people start deciding they don’t want to vote for him. SAG will be interesting. And even BAFTA.

Rankings:

5. Mortensen

4. Garfield

3. Gosling

2. Washington

1. Affleck

Big takeaways: None, really. Though I am still curious how that Viggo Mortensen love coalesced to get this to happen. Did people really see that performance and remember it? Or are they voting alongside how previous nominations went?

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Actress

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

The minute I heard Isabelle Huppert’s name spoken first I both exhaled and said, “Something’s not right.” And the nominees came out so fast, I couldn’t figure out what it was until afterward.

They left off Amy Adams. Who saw that coming?

I could have told you they’d leave off Emily Blunt (did anyone really guess that would happen?). I probably could have told you Annette Bening probably wasn’t getting anywhere. Wouldn’t have guessed they’d straight up jettison Amy Adams in favor of another Meryl nomination.

Really great to see Ruth Negga here, though. Definitely pleased about that.

4/5 for me and for just about everyone else, I’d imagine. Would love to see the person who nailed this category cold.

My Dark Horse made it on, so at least that’s something.

This category is also now open for business. Depending on precursors, you could see any one of three people win it. This is not a walk for anyone. The Globes set a precedent that could either start a trend or just make it seem more interesting than it is.

Rankings:

5. Streep

4. Negga

3. Huppert

2. Stone

1. Portman

Honestly that’s just guessing. I have no idea until some other voting bodies point me where to go with it.

Big takeaways: They left off Amy Adams. And the category is wide open for Portman, Stone or Huppert to win. I truly don’t think Huppert can swing it, so I’ll double down on one of the first two for now. But this one might be all about the campaigning. I don’t think Natalie is a done deal.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Does it count if I had five for five on the films that would be nominated?

They went Michael Shannon instead of Aaron Taylor-Johnson, thus ending the Golden Globes’ 40 year streak of having their Supporting Actor winner nominated at the Oscars.

That said, how awesome is this category?

Another Dark Horse for me. So doing pretty well so far on those predictions.

Hugh Grant never felt like he was gonna be nominated, so this is a 4/5 I feel really good about. They swapped off Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Michael Shannon. Nothing there to feel bad about at all, especially since it gets Michael Shannon an overdue nomination, especially after last year, with the precursor love and being left off.

This one still feels pretty wide open, even though I’d suspect Mahershala Ali to be the favorite at this point in time. But it still feels pretty open.

Rankings:

5. Patel

4. Hedges

3. Shannon

2. Bridges

1. Ali

Big takeaways: The Globes streak ends, and this category is wide open and just waiting for the precursors to start a landslide. All it takes is for SAG and BAFTA to go the same way, and that’ll lock this one up right quick. Otherwise another 4/5 and I had the film right. I’m really pleased with all of this so far. The only real surprise was the Amy Adams snub.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

5/5.

Chalk.

There wasn’t anyone else. This was always gonna be your category.

Viola should sweep her way to an easy win here.

Rankings:

5. Spencer

4. Kidman

3. Williams

2. Harris

1. Davis

Big takeaways: A year after Oscars so White, we have a category where legitimately three of the five women are of color. I mean, everyone’s real quiet on the latino and Asian nominees still not being out there, but that’s one of those stories that I guess doesn’t matter? But yeah, this was the assumed category and it should be a cakewalk for Viola Davis. (Is it easy to walk on cakes? Where did that come fr… oh, it’s racist, never mind.)

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Original Screenplay

20th Century Women

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

I was not certain of The Lobster at all, so to see that was nice.

I honestly didn’t know what to make of this one, so that fifth spot was always gonna moderately surprise me. I figured enough to saw Zootopia wouldn’t be the spot, and I reached too far for Captain Fantastic, not knowing which way to take it.

So we end up with 20th Century Women, which is a good choice and I like that Mike Mills got on there. Wasn’t an alternate or dark horse, but that’s fine.

I figured they wouldn’t go Jackie, so I would have said third alternate on 20th Century Women. Either way, not unhappy about the result.

4/5, and this should be an easy, easy win for Lonergan.

Rankings:

5. 20th Century Women

4. The Lobster

3. La La Land

2. Hell or High Water

Manchester by the Sea

Big takeaways: None? Oh, wait, one. They nominated Yorgos Lanthimos for an Oscar. Other than that, Kenneth Lonergan will win this easily.

– – – – – – – – – – –

 Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

I knew something didn’t go as I’d expected once I’d heard Fences, but I forgot what I’d picked.

It was Nocturnal. And Fences was my alternate. So still, right on track.

4/5 here.

Rankings:

5. Fences

4. Lion

3. Hidden Figures

2. Arrival

1. Moonlight

Big takeaways: None. No surprises. Not shocked at all about the lack of Nocturnal Animals love. Moonlight will win this without issue.

Also, has anyone, to this point, only gotten 3/5 on something? Because you shouldn’t have.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

Hell or High Water managed an Editing nod. And it was at the expense of the obvious cast off, Manchester by the Sea.

It’s weird to see them get it right from a logical standpoint.

Another alternate on there.

Anyway, another 4/5, and these are the choices that feel good all around.

Rankings:

5. Arrival

4. Moonlight

3. Hell or High Water

2. Hacksaw Ridge

1. La La Land

Big takeaways: La La Land is gonna be such a force at the Oscars. They might give it 8 or 9 awards. (They won’t, but don’t rule it out.) Otherwise, no big takeaways here, except if we hold onto the old standards of how this works, Manchester can’t win Best Picture now. Though I don’t think we thought of that as a legitimate scenario anyway.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Another 4/5.

My alternate made it on.

I felt all day yesterday that Moonlight was the choice over Nocturnal Animals, but I didn’t change it because I own my decisions.

And I was lazy and didn’t want to sit down and change it.

Still, these all made sense.

When you get 4/5 and the fifth choice was your #6, it’s hard to really feel that upset.

I also have no clue what’s winning this. They might just sweep vote La La Land everywhere. It’s starting to get that kinda vibe, isn’t it?

Rankings:

5. Lion

4. Arrival

3. Moonlight

2. Silence

1. La La Land

Big takeaways: This is really starting to look like a landslide for La La Land.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Original Score

Jackie

La La land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

PASSENGERS?!

I know they love Thomas Newman, but goddamn. Is he the new John Williams now? Where you have to assume they’ll put him on no matter what?

HE LITERALLY LIFTED THE SCORE FROM WALL-E FOR A SCENE.

Anyway, John Williams was not nominated here for the first time in forever.

3/5 for me, and I don’t think anyone saw that Passengers nomination truly coming.

Moonlight was my alternate I knew I should have had on, and Passengers — I mean… okay.

Rankings:

5. Passengers

4. Lion

3. Moonlight

2. Jackie

1. La La Land

Big takeaways: This shit is locked from a month ago. Everything else is logistical. No John Williams but yes Thomas Newman. Okay. It’s the composer, not the film. I gotta beat that one into my head more than it is.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Original Song

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream,” from La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls

“City of Stars,” from La La Land

“The Empty Chair,” from Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go,” from Moana

To get the good out of the way —

I went 4/5 here, and I imagine most people did and should have. Both La La Land songs were a gimme, and I told you how hard Timberlake was campaigning, so that should have been an easy one there. You never go against a Disney princess (and Lin-Manuel Miranda), so that’s four. It was only gonna be about that fifth spot.

And the branch mostly got it right. It’s hard to get mad at them, even if I am disappointed in the “Drive It Like You Stole It” snub. But I’m not 19 anymore, so I don’t get mad about snubs, I just acknowledge them and move on. It’s not worth my time to dwell on.

That brings me to “The Empty Chair.” When I wrote up the article, I mentioned that Sting and J. Ralph were previous nominees and put them in contention for a nomination. But, despite mentioning about those documentary songs about how people like J. Ralph get nominated for things, I literally forgot to think about J. Ralph himself. And here he is again, for the third time in six years.

Just like Thomas Newman in Original Score (and another nominee we’ll get to in a minute), you literally have to consider certain people for a nomination every year. (Actually, shit, two nominees in a minute.)

But yeah, no real surprises otherwise.

Rankings:

5. “The Empty Chair”

4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling”

3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”

2. “How Far I’ll Go”

1. “City of Stars”

Big takeaways: J. Ralph, man. They like him. Otherwise, La La Land should win easily, though vote splitting is a possibility and Lin-Manuel is always there to capitalize.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Production Design

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

Oh, well damn. I thought I fucked up royally here. Nah, I did all right.

3/5 overall. Arrival was my dark horse. I’ll accept that. I put Jackie on and they ignored Jackie. Fair.

I put Live by Night on as a surprise nominee that wouldn’t get other real nominations, and it turns out, that nominee was Passengers. The sentiment was right, I just had the film wrong. I don’t feel bad about that in the least.

This is another one of those categories where you start to wonder… are they really gonna sweep vote this? Because two of the nominees will not get votes, and you’re left with Arrival, Hail Caesar and La La Land. They might literally vote La La Land in for Best Production Design. You realize this, right?

Rankings:

5. Passengers

4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

3. Arrival

2. Hail Caesar

1. La La Land

Big takeaways: The sweep vote is the only thing coming to mind here. This is insane.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Costume Design

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

They left off the big, frilly period piece. Interesting.

I did manage 4/5 here though!

The fifth spot was the one I couldn’t tell you about. Allied makes sense, so sure.

Rankings:

5. Allied

4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

3. La La Land

2. Florence Foster Jenkins

1. Jackie

Big takeaways: Jackie can’t lose this, can it?

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

1/3

This was almost a massacre.

Thank god I put Suicide Squad on at the last minute.

Though I guess I’d have had Star Trek on if not that.

Either way — A Man Called Ove? And to think some people guessed that purely because of the foreign entry last year and got it right purely because of that.

But I guess this is how they vote now. This is another J. Ralph situation. Gotta make those Swedes favorites in Makeup.

But yeah, it makes sense, ultimately. This category is compromised from the shortlisting process, so it’s hard to feel anything about their categories.

Rankings:

3. A Man Called Ove

2. Suicide Squad

1. Star Trek Beyond

Big takeaways: Academy Award nominee Suicide Squad. Academy Award winner Star Trek Beyond

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Visual Effects

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

YEAH KUBO!

I had a feeling Fantastic Beasts would be left off in favor of Kubo. Wasn’t totally sold on Arrival, but I truly didn’t think Deepwater had enough juice to make it, even though it makes sense.

3/5.

Love the Kubo love, and without a Best Picture contender here we can not get all nervous about that stat going down two years running.

This should be between Rogue One and Jungle Book. I can’t figure Marvel to get any broad support, and I don’t know if they’d actually vote Kubo in here. So it should be one or the other, Disney v. Disney. (Disney has three nominees in this category, by the way.)

Rankings:

5. Deepwater Horizon

4. Doctor Strange

3. Kubo and the Two Strings

2. The Jungle Book

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Big takeaways: KUBO!

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Sound Editing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

They announced this category pretty early, and the minute I heard La La Land, I just sort of clapped my hands together and said, “That’s a wrap.”

They nominated it for Sound Editing. Sound fucking editing. Either the people who work in this category don’t know what sound editing is or they just straight up voted for it everywhere.

All right, then.

I went 4/5 here. The only miss was La La Land. I was worried I went less than 4/5, so to see me do that makes me happy.

They shouldn’t straight up vote for it here. I think they’re smart enough to take Hacksaw or something. But you honestly never know with them. This feels like a return to the sweep vote.

Rankings:

5. Deepwater Horizon

4. Sully

3. Arrival

2. La La Land

1. Hacksaw Ridge

Big takeaways: La La Land is actually about to hit an all-time nominations threshold. You guys realize that, right?

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Sound Mixing

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

4/5 here. And somehow not the way I thought I’d miss this.

I looked through these nominees three times to make sure my count was right. I thought for sure I got two wrong.

I smartly went almost the same on both categories. That helped me do as well, since they’re basically the same. I thought it would be a Sully for La La Land swap on Editing and Mixing. Though here, they left Deepwater off, which makes sense, and put 13 Hours on.

Which — Greg P. Russell again, man. 17 nominations now, zero wins.

Damn shame he’s up against La La Land.

Rankings:

5. Arrival

4. 13 Hours

3. Rogue One

2. Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Big takeaways: Aside from Greg P. Russell? No. La La Land is all but assured to win this.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

4/5.

This was the category I assumed. I just couldn’t not pick Finding Dory. Zucchini was the alternate, and I said straight up this was likely gonna be the five. This is how they vote. At this point you should have this category cold most years.

Winning-wise… Kubo might have a shot at this. Though you gotta assume Zootopia still, though we might be basing this on outdated information. We’ll see.

Rankings:

5. My Life as a Zucchini

4. The Red Turtle

3. Moana

2. Kubo and the Two Strings

1. Zootopia

Big takeaways: I basically had this one cold and deliberately went against what I assumed would happen. And there’s a legitimate chance they could vote Kubo here, even though I won’t get my hopes up.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Foreign Language Film

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

5/5.

This was the category that made sense.

It helped that I was able to watch all of these.

Toni Erdmann should win it.

Rankings:

5. Tanna

4. Land of Mine

3. A Man Called Ove

2. The Salesman

Toni Erdmann

Big takeaways: We’re back to wondering how the fuck they’re gonna vote. Though Toni Erdmann looks like an easy winner.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Documentary

13th

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J. Made in America

There’s O.J. and then there’s everyone else.

You know what’s funny about this one? I said you have to guess both 13th and I Am Not Your Negro because how do you split them and white guilt. They both got on. Awesome.

Then I said Fire at Sea even though I was sure they’d leave it off. And then they nominated it. Well damn.

And then they nominated the autistic documentary? Okay. Weird choice.

Glad I left Cameraperson off. That one I felt wouldn’t get on. And Weiner got squeezed.

(Pause for showering of applause and the throwing of rose petals.)

They put Life Animated on instead of The Eagle Huntress. And I got 4/5. I’m good here.

Rankings:

5. Life Animated

4. Fire at Sea

3. 13th

2. I Am Not Your Negro

1. O.J. Made in America

Big takeaways: I got 4/5 in Documentary. That’s the only news here. Because O.J. winning this is not news.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Documentary Short

4.1 Miles

Extremis

Joe’s Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

4/5 for me. Holy shit, really?

I put The Mute’s House instead of 4.1 Miles.

But really, I guessed the other four?

Damn. I guess there’s not a whole lot to talk about here, then, huh?

I’m glad I went with my gut on that Watani nomination. It felt like the one I’d leave off that would get nominated. So I picked it and here we are.

And Joe’s Violin felt like the light-hearted one they always fall for. That was a cynical pick. And yet here we are.

Oh, wait I’m wrong. Watani is the Aleppo one. I thought it was the Armenian genocide one. Never mind, I picked this one pretty well.

The White Helmets should win this.

Rankings:

5. Joe’s Violin

4. Watani: My Homeland

3. 4.1 Miles

2. Extremis

1. The White Helmets

Big takeaways: I got fucking 4/5 here! That’s the only story. Because it’s Documentary Short. You don’t know what these are.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Live-Action Short

Ennemis Intérieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

Oh, right. And here’s where I get taken down. Just massacred in the shorts.

2/5 here.

Not even worth getting into. I was just wrong.

I assume Timecode wins though.

Rankings:

5. Silent Nights

4. La Femme et le TGV

3. Ennemis Interieurs

2. Sing

1. Timecode

Big takeaways: Nothing like Live-Action Short to ruin a good thing.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Best Animated Short

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pearl Cider and Cigarettes

Pearl

Piper

Just another disaster. 2/5 again.

My dark horse and alternate both made it on, but even so — jesus.

Pixar hasn’t won this category since 2001, is this the time?

I’m so happy Pearl made it on. I loved that short, and I hope it wins.

I’ve seen 3/5 of this category. I’ve actually seen at least 3/5 of every category, except Live-Action Short.

No joke, the entire list of films on these nominations I haven’t seen is: Pearl Cider and Cigarettes, Blind Vaysha, Watani: My Homeland, I Am Not Your Negro and the five live-action shorts.

That’s cool.

Rankings:

5. Blind Vaysha

4. Pearl Cider and Cigarettes

3. Borrowed Time

2. Pearl

1. Piper

– – – – – – – – – – –

Biggest surprises:

  1. 14 overall nominations for La La Land. I expected 11-12, but not 14. The Sound Editing nomination came out of nowhere. Though, I guess I shouldn’t be so surprised. I had 13 nominations on my guesses, and they all seemed like they’d come through. Still, 14 nominations is a lot. You wanna know how much that is? It’s tied for the MOST ALL TIME. That’s right, only Titanic, All About Eve and La La Land have been nominated for 14 Oscars. You know what films have 13? Gone With the Wind, From Here to Eternity, Shakespeare in Love, Forrest Gump, Chicago, Mary Poppins, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? and Fellowship. So yeah… exclusive company. Kinda shocking.
  2. Amy Adams wasn’t nominated for Best Actress. Based on precursors, love for her and love for the film, you’d think she was a sure thing. It makes sense, when you think about it as a whole, but still a surprise based on what we thought we knew. (You think she saw this coming? With the whole (spoiler alert) and all.)
  3. The winner of the Golden Globes Best Supporting Actor isn’t nominated for the Oscar for the first time since 1975. But on the other hand, Michael Shannon is nominated! Really the only surprise is how yet another stalwart statistic goes down.
  4. The PGA nominees matched the Best Picture nominees for the first time in 20 years. The fact that it happened was the surprising result, not the nine films they chose. As those were generally considered the ones that would get on.)
  5. Two nominations for Passengers? What? How does that happen? Thomas Newman, I get. They manage to throw him on just about every year. But the Production Design one? I mean, get it. They constructed a ship. But so much of that felt like CGI I couldn’t believe they’d go there. But they did, and now a critically maligned film that’s not as bad as the perception of it is nominated for two Oscars.
  6. Mel Gibson got a Best Director nomination. I knew he was firmly in the conversation, but to see it happen fills me with surprise, joy and a feeling of contentment. Because while I don’t love Hacksaw Ridge, I like it a lot, and I think this is more representative of him coming back into the fold in a nice way.
  7. Silence never catches on in any meaningful way. One measly Cinematography nomination is all it gets. The same can sort of be said for Jackie, which only managed a nomination for Natalie, its costumes and its score. Though I think most of us saw that one coming. I’m not particularly surprised by either, but the way people assumed Silence would get on, I imagine that’ll hit a lot of people’s “surprise” radars. The part that surprised me was how well people expected it to do.
  8. Kubo and the Two Strings gets a Best Visual Effects nomination. That’s pretty historic. Only twice ever has that happened, that an animated film was nominated there.
  9. J. Ralph gets nominated again in the Original Song category. That man has to be considered near the top of the list from here onward, apparently. Until they start to ignore him for several years straight, like the Academy is currently doing with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.
  10. Still can’t believe they nominated The Lobster. Not a surprise, but — I just can’t believe that happened. Oh… Greg P. Russell gets his 17th nomination. That’s something, I guess.

And… Academy Award nominee Suicide Squad? I’m reaching, clearly But when you have a year like this, there were no surprises to go around. Best Picture went as we suspected. Not even a moderately surprising entry. Nobody got nominated for acting out of nowhere. Only one real snub in the acting categories. There’s really nothing you can point to except statistical stuff and below the line stuff. Making it a very ho-hum year for nominations surprises. What, are we really gonna spend our time talking about the radical choices made in the Best Animated Short category?

– – – – – – – – – – –

Nominations tally:

La La Land — 14 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song (x2), Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Moonlight — 8 nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score)

Arrival — 7 nominations (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Hacksaw Ridge — 6 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Lion — 6 nominations (Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Score)

Manchester by the Sea — 6 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay)

Fences — 4 nominations (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)

Hell or High Water — 4 nominations (Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing)

Hidden Figures — 3 nominations (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)

Jackie — 3 nominations (Actress, Original Score, Costume Design)

Deepwater Horizon — 2 nominations (Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them — 2 nominations (Production Design, Costume Design)

Florence Foster Jenkins — 2 nominations (Actress, Costume Design)

Kubo and the Two Strings — 2 nominations (Visual Effects, Animated Feature)

A Man Called Ove — 2 nominations (Makeup & Hairstyling, Foreign Language Film)

Moana — 2 nominations (Original Song, Animated Feature)

Passengers — 2 nominations (Original Score, Production Design)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 2 nominations (Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

13th

20th Century Women

Allied

Captain Fantastic

Doctor Strange

Elle

Fire at Sea

Hail, Caesar!

I Am Not Your Negro

Jim: The James Foley Story

The Jungle Book

Life, Animated

The Lobster

Land of Mine

Loving

A Man Called Ove

My Life as a Zucchini

Nocturnal Animals

O.J. Made in America

The Red Turtle

The Salesman

Silence

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Sully

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

Trolls

Zootopia

4.1 Miles

Extremis

Joe’s Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

Ennemis Intérieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pearl Cider and Cigarettes

Pearl

Piper

– – – – – – – – – – –

Tally by # of nominations:

14 nominations — La La Land

8 nominations — Moonlight

7 nominations — Arrival

6 nominations — Hacksaw Ridge and Lion and Manchester by the Sea

4 nominations — Fences and Hell or High Water

3 nominations — Hidden Figures and Jackie

2 nominations — Deepwater Horizon and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Florence Foster Jenkins and Kubo and the Two Strings and A Man Called Ove and Moana and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

– – – – – – – – – – –

And now for the moment I’ve been waiting for — how did I do?

9/9 on Best Picture.

1/3 on Makeup & Hairstyling.

Three 5/5s this year. They were Actor, Supporting Actress and Foreign Language Film.

Fourteen 4/5s. Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Original Song, Costume Design, Animated Feature, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Documentary, Documentary Short.

Three 3/5s. Original Score, Production Design and Visual Effects.

Two 2/5s. Live-Action Short and Animated Short.

I’d also like to point out, that in categories where I got three or four right (so 17 of them), seven of my first alternates and three of my dark horses. So in 10 of 17 categories, I was right there all around. Which I’m really happy about.

And, out of a total of 122 overall nominees, I got 94 of them.

That’s 77%.

94/122.

I can’t believe I’m right in line with how I did last year.

Previous years:

  • 2015: 78.5% (95/121)
  • 2014: 71.9% (87/121)
  • 2013: 76% (92/121)
  • 2012: 71% (87/122)
  • 2011: 68% (81/119)

I stayed above 75%. I am very happy about this.

– – – – – – – – – –

Now we have our nominees, and the next month is all about who’s gonna win. It’s a truncated timeline, so we’ll start breaking down categories real soon.

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4 responses

  1. BlueFox94

    Forgive me for totally using 98% of your picks in various Oscar predictions contests every year. ^_^

    January 24, 2017 at 1:53 pm

  2. Rogue One for Visual Effects? I don’t know….I mean, more or less everyone tends to be all over Star Wars, but it doesn’t have a “gimmick” so to speak. It has neither the “we filmed all this in a studio” argument Jungle Book has, nor the “we went totally trippy and put stuff on screen nobody has ever seen beforehand” pedigree of Doctor Strange, nor is it as artistic as Kubo. Kubo is the outsider (honestly, I am surprised that they nominated an animated movie at all), but Rogue One would be a wtf decision.

    January 24, 2017 at 3:46 pm

    • BlueFox94

      Not to mention the fact that Rogue One would be getting what Ep. 7 failed to get.

      January 24, 2017 at 4:29 pm

  3. Pingback: The #OscarsSoWhite conversation is far from over – JACQUELINE ROSS

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