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Oscars 2016: BAFTA Awards

The BAFTAs were just announced. Guess what? Shit’s locked, guys.

This is the last major voting body we’ve been waiting for. After this, it’s just WGA, CAS, CDG, MPSE and the Makeup & Hairstylists Guild. Of those, we really only are gonna get any help from CDG. The rest we can reason through with the categories.

But yeah, BAFTAs. They definitely illuminated a few things I was curious about. Let’s just get into it. Here are your winners:

Best Film

Arrival

I, Daniel Blake

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Winner: La La Land

Yeah… that about sews that one up. I don’t think there was any doubt La La Land was gonna win Best Picture, but this seals it. There’s you’re winner. 1/24.

Outstanding British Film

American Honey

Denial

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

I, Daniel Blake

Notes on Blindness

Under the Shadow

Winner: I, Daniel Blake

Good for him. This was a category that didn’t matter. And you had to figure Daniel Blake was gonna win it, seeing as how they also nominated it for Best Film.

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Yup. Also locked. Even if they went elsewhere, that wouldn’t change anything. 2/24.

Best Actor

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Winner: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Denzel wasn’t nominated, so that won’t change too much. But with BFCA, BAFTA and the Globe, Affleck has to remain the favorite, with Denzel the second choice. SAG helps, but SAG isn’t everything. Especially now that I’m starting to think SAG is deliberately voting certain ways because of the larger voting body and other things. But we’ll see.

For now, it’s Denzel vs. Affleck, and that’ll be one of the categories we think long and hard about in two weeks.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, Arrival

Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Winner: Emma Stone, La La Land

Wow. A sound rejection of Natalie Portman. Emma’s gonna win this Oscar, guys. I didn’t think that was a legitimate possibility when we started, but unless Isabelle Huppert is gonna come out of nowhere (very unlikely, given the low visibility of that film), I think Emma’s got it. Natalie’s got no precursors. Oh, wait, BFCA. She has that. So she’s got one. Emma’s got the two that matter. This will be interesting. Not a lock by any stretch, but Emma Stone now becomes your frontrunner to win Best Actress. This is happening, guys.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Dev Patel, Lion

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Winner: Dev Patel, Lion

Well that was interesting. I guess the Brits didn’t take to Moonlight. I thought for sure they’d go Aaron Taylor-Johnson and make this another one of those “what if’ scenarios. But Dev Patel is interesting. This category tends to go interesting ways at the BAFTAs. Barkhad Abdi won this. Geoffrey Rush. They like giving this to Brits. Either they hit this category dead on or they go off to vote for a Brit. This is one of the latter categories. I don’t see how Dev Patel mounts any sort of push in this race. Mahershala Ali should have it in the bag.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Winner: Viola Davis, Fences

Well this was locked from the jump. Nothing changes here. Naomie Harris winning wouldn’t have changed that. All this tells me is that they didn’t really care for Moonlight all that much. It happens.

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water

I, Daniel Blake

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Winner: Manchester by the Sea

I don’t usually put much stock into BAFTA Screenplay categories, but this helps confirm my suspicions about what’s going to win there. I imagine the WGA will do the same.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hidden Figures

Lion

Nocturnal Animals

Winner: Lion

Interesting. Cool choice. Moonlight wasn’t nominated here so this won’t affect the Oscar outcome either way. Though this is most of your Oscar category. Moonlight’s won the Scripter and may still win the WGA (though I think it’s Original there too) so that should be your winner here.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

The Girl with All the Gifts

The Hard Stop

Notes on Blindness

The Pass

Under the Shadow

Winner: Under the Shadow

K.

The Girl with All the Gifts is amazing, though.

Best Foreign Language Film

Dheepan

Julieta

Mustang

Son of Saul

Toni Erdmann

Winner: Son of Saul

This really helps us out… in 2015.

Best Documentary

The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years

The Eagle Huntress

Notes on Blindness

13th

Weiner

Winner: 13th

This would have been an automatic winner had it not been for O.J. There’s still the possibility they reject O.J. and vote for this anyway. I’m not ruling that out. But for now, let’s assume it’s still O.J.

Best Animated Film

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

Zootopia

Winner: Kubo and the Two Strings

Oh, you Brits. There you go again… getting my hopes up. Only to see them crushed by Zootopia in the end.

I appreciate it, though. I’ll keep the hope alive.

Best Score

Arrival

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Nocturnal Animals

Winner: La La Land

Another lock. This is automatic. Nothing to say here.

Best Cinematography

Arrival

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Lion

Nocturnal Animals

Winner: La La Land

Yeah… Lion winning here would have made that an interesting conversation, but I think we may be locked here too. We’re looking at a relative sweep, guys. 7, 8, 9 wins.

Best Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Nocturnal Animals

Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

I was waiting for one of these to happen. Editing could give us a surprise this year. La La Land is the favorite and probable winner, but you could see an interesting outcome, much like with The Artist and 2011. I’m not writing this one off just yet. Hacksaw and Arrival will make plays for this at the Oscars.

Best Production Design

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Nocturnal Animals

Winner: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Yeah, the Academy’s not gonna do this. I can convince myself they might, but Harry Potter as a franchise has won a total of zero Oscars. Production Design is an open category. La La Land winning here would have closed it, but this keeps things somewhat interesting. Definitely one we’re gonna have to think about when we make picks.

Best Costume Design

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Winner: Jackie

It’s the clear choice. CDG might not award it, since they tend to do their own thing, but this should easily win the Oscar. I’d be pretty surprised if they went with La La Land or with something else. If Jackie’s gonna win anything, it’s Costumes.

Best Makeup and Hair

Doctor Strange

Florence Foster Jenkins

Hacksaw Ridge

Nocturnal Animals

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Winner: Florence Foster Jenkins

This was the only one shortlisted. It makes the most sense. Were they to nominate it, it would have probably won. Since none of these films were nominated at the Oscars, this category is meaningless for our purposes here.

Best Visual Effects

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

The Jungle Book

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Winner: The Jungle Book

Yeah, this is probably locked. I see no reason to think this won’t easily win the Oscar. There’s not even anything I could entertain a case for other than this.

Best Sound

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Winner: Arrival

This makes sense. La La Land will win for Mixing, but Editing is still open. Doubt Arrival can take it over Hacksaw, and there’s still the possibility they vote for La La Land in both because they don’t know the difference.

Best Animated British Short

The Alan Dimension

A Love Story

Tough

Winner: A Love Story

Sure.

Best British Live-Action Short

Consumed

Home

Mouth of Hell

The Party

Standby

Winner: Home

Good for them.

EE Rising Star award

Laia Costa

Lucas Hedges

Tom Holland

Ruth Negga

Anya Taylor-Joy

Winner: Tom Holland

Oh, so the category the public can vote for voted for Spider-Man. Shocker.

– – – – – – – – – –

So yeah, La La Land is gonna win everything, guys. Now all I have to interest me are the Production Design, Editing, maybe Cinematography… stuff like that. I can pretend Actor and Actress are more interesting than they are. But mostly we’re looking at a big night for La La Land and the obvious choices in most of the other categories.

Get ready, guys. Lotta song and dance coming your way in two weeks.

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