Oscars 2017: WGA Nominations
The new year is up and running, and we’ve got some guild nominations to get through.
We begin with the WGA, which is generally helpful in figuring out the Screenplay categories, outside of the fact that invariably a handful of scripts are not eligible for the WGA, which will throw a giant monkey wrench into everyone’s calculations. I know for a fact that Three Billboards and Darkest Hour are not eligible. Though I believe those are the only ones.
This is also a year where it feels like Original Screenplay is way stronger than Adapted Screenplay, which will undoubtedly lead to some ‘snubs’ there at some point during the race.
Let’s see what the WGA has given us this year:
The Big Sick
The Shape of Water
So McDonagh’s gonna factor in here for Three Billboards. Darkest Hour also counts as Original as well (unless there’s something there I don’t know about). That means The Post got left off, and Dunkirk got left off. Dunkirk I’d have said all the way would never get a Screenplay nomination, but still, it’s worth mentioning. Oh, and Phantom Thread, right? Yeah… that feels like a tough sell in Screenplay. That feels like a tough sell everywhere except costumes and production design. But we’ll see.
Right now, you might say this could be your exact category, and if I were to venture who would be left off, I’d say it would be Guillermo, unfortunately. I can’t see both The Post and Three Billboards not getting nominated there. I’m still unsure of how much they’re gonna embrace The Post as a whole. I can’t see it getting the Lincoln haul of 12 nominations, but I also can’t imagine it goes less than five, right? Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and either Screenplay or Score? Williams looks like a shoo-in regardless. Maybe one of the acting categories is left off. I’ll cede to the DGA on whether Spielberg gets in. There’s a chance they just don’t care about that movie and it’s not the factor we all think. I have no idea right now.
Three Billboards seems like a sure thing, but again, you never know. I’ve been waiting for an eventual backlash to that movie that just has not come yet. This will definitely be an interesting one to look out for.
Right now, just basing this on nothing but my own gut and experience, I would guess Lady Bird, Get Out and The Big Sick are gonna get on. But I could see The Big Sick getting left off and Get Out, in some way, getting left off. The Shape of Water seems like a huge lock for a bunch of nominations, yet for me this doesn’t seem like a sure thing. I’m probably wrong, but I’ve also not started wrapping my head around what will or won’t be nominated yet. I, Tonya seems like the first one to be left off as the outlier of a very strong category. That’s the one, if I had to guess, that would not be nominated among this group.
Then again, maybe these are the five. We have like two or three weeks to figure it out.
Call My By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Nothing was ineligible here as far as I can tell, so something had to have gotten left off.
One of the articles I saw that announced this mentioned All the Money in the World as a candidate here. That I can’t see. Ridley’s movies, unless they’re huge contenders, generally don’t get writing nominations. Wonder was also mentioned, which theoretically I could see happening.
Four of these seem locked by sheer virtue of there being no other choices. Call Me By Your Name is 100% on. Molly’s Game is like, 90% on. They left him off for Steve Jobs, which I didn’t think was possible, so I won’t call it 100%, but it’s kind of 100% this year, right? He’s not up against the competition he was up against in 2015. Mudbound seems like a lock. That will be that movie’s sole lock nomination, unless it gets on for Song and/or Supporting Actress. Four is the max there, with maybe a Production or Costume Design to round it out.
The Disaster Artist crazily seems like it’s gonna get nominated. Were there other contenders I’d look to it being left off — but what is there? Also, this is a group that nominated Borat and Straight Outta Compton here, so they do go for stuff like this, and I think this one might make it.
Logan, of course, is the outlier, and while good for it — you don’t really think they’d go there, right? I’d be thrilled to see it, but my ‘bullshit’ senses are tingling on that. It’s like when the PGA nominates that one mainstream movie on their list and everyone goes, “Oh my god, can Skyfall get a Best Picture nomination?” And it’s like, no. Do you know the Academy at all? So, I’d be happy if Logan made the list, but right now, even without knowing what else could make it, that does not seem like
Then again, the only thing I’ve seen touted as an alternate nominee is Victoria & Abdul, to which I’d say — did you see that movie? I’d rather them nominate The Boss Baby over that for Screenplay. Theoretically you could say Wonder Woman has a shot, but I don’t think anyone thought that was particularly good writing. I also don’t think they liked Blade Runner enough to give a shit there.
I have to consider Wonder and Logan the two contenders for that fifth spot until I see otherwise. What else is there?
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Overall, though, I think they got it right. There’s nothing there that makes you roll your eyes, unless you out and out hate something, which is your own thing. All of these feel like they were films that we all either thought were incredibly well written or re major contenders. So really our job is gonna be seeing which way the Academy goes, because Original has a lot of potential variation and Adapted seems like six contenders for five spots, with maybe one or two potential other contenders (or that surprise contender that maybe someone can pull out of their ass).
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More guild stuff to follow as quickly as I can type it all up.