Oscars 2017: 75th Golden Globes Predictions
Okay, so I legit had no idea the Globes were tonight. I was expecting them to be next weekend for some reason. Even though I post a list on this website to remind me of things to prevent a situation just like this. And like the Snowman Killer, I gave myself all the clues.
Fortunately I put absolutely zero effort into these predictions every year, so this’ll be real easy.
The fun for me is watching the show, not thinking about it. I’m getting drunk and texting ridiculous shit just like everyone at the damn thing. Because we know these things don’t matter, right? The voting body shares zero similarities with the Academy, so we’re left with a marker that may or may not pan out. Usually they get a handful and miss a handful. I’m sure this will be no different.
So let’s watch me pick names out of a hat and then scoff at all the TV nominees before I start drinking:
Best Picture – Drama
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
So, unless they really wanna make a statement, Dunkirk isn’t winning. Three Billboards would be a real point to the fences for them too. The Post seems too easy. Maybe they go there, but they don’t seem to be that vanilla. We’re left with Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name.
Now, if I’m drawing a line to what the Oscars are gonna likely do, I’m looking at Call Me By Your Name. But looking at the Hollywood Foreign Press — Shape of Water seems like the winner here, right? Because Guadagnino wasn’t nominated for Best Director. Maybe it’s a voting quirk and he got squeezed out, maybe they’re not in love with the film. We’ll only know when they announce the winner.
One thing I should say is that last year, we were pretty sure who was gonna win because we knew what the two favorites were (La La Land and Moonlight). This year, we don’t have a fucking clue. Which 1) I love, and 2) makes it impossible to know which way this goes and whether or not it matters. So I don’t really give a fuck what wins no matter how you slice it.
I’ll also say, the likelihood of Call Me By Your Name winning this without a Best Director nomination is not high. You know how far you need to go back to have a Drama Best Picture winner at the Globes that wasn’t nominated for Best Director? How about never. It’s never happened. Not, at least, when there were full categories. The most recent time was 1955, because Best Picture (Drama) was East of Eden and Best Director was Joshua Logan for Picnic. But there were no categories. They just announced winners. Never, where they have been nominees, has a Best Picture (Drama) winner not also been nominated for Best Director.
So of course I’m taking Call Me By Your Name here. It wouldn’t be fun otherwise.
Fuck you, history!
(But seriously, if you’re picking — and why are you, except for drinking purposes — The Shape of Water is probably the smart choice.)
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman
I mean, it’s Lady Bird, right? Thought it could be Get Out, but I assume they think Lady Bird has a legitimate chance at Best Picture and they’re gonna take that. I, Tonya is a dark horse, but I doubt it. Disaster Artist would be pretty tone deaf. Greatest Showman would be them liking what they like. But I doubt it.
It’s Lady Bird or Get Out, with edge toward Lady Bird, which I imagine wins at least one other award if it wins this.
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
The statement is if Ridley wins. Not that I think they’ll go there (Best Supporting Actor, however, might be a different story). McDonagh only wins if they plant their flag on that movie. Spielberg seems too easy. Nolan makes the most sense all around. Del Toro also makes sense. Not sure if they wanna go all in on him.
I don’t see the Globes as anything more than one of two things — 1) A popularity contest (who can charm the foreign press the best?) and 2) A means to an end. They seem to either want to be the precursor for what wins and is nominated for Oscars, or they just are. So either way, I’m looking completely superficially and also in the long view on this.
To me, the likely Best Director scenario at the Oscars, especially in a year like this (let alone after the last four out of five years being splits) — Nolan wins Best Director after years of being overdue and for his big war movie, and then something else wins Best Picture. Whatever you want it to be. Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, hell even Get Out if you really think they’re gonna go there. There’s a very limited window here where something wins both.
Right now, what are your contenders of winning both? Legitimately. It’s Spielberg, Guillermo, Guadagnino. I don’t see them even nominating Greta Gerwig for Best Director (I don’t have high enough hopes for diversity and fairness in a male-dominated branch to even think she makes it to the nominees). Peele would shock me on the nominees list, let alone winning. I don’t see McDonagh getting there on both with that movie. So unless you’re getting one of those three, then chances are, it’ll be a split. And to me, look at the war film with the guy who’s never been nominated (seriously, Nolan’s never been nominated for Best Director) to win there.
So my guess is the Globes do one of two things — go all in on Shape of Water and give it to Guillermo (which is a safe choice), or they give it to Nolan, knowing where these things are headed and starting that train a-rolling.
So Nolan is my guess here. (Just because I put no effort into this doesn’t mean I don’t have somewhat lucid arguments.)
Best Actor – Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I really like this category.
I also think there’s nothing to say here. Unless they wanna give Daniel Day-Lewis another statue on the way out, you know they’re gonna give it to Gary Oldman.
Hanks has three of these and isn’t gonna be in contention for the Oscar (if he’s even nominated. Let’s not forget Captain Phillips). Chalamet, unless they loved Call Me By Your Name (and where’s the Director nomination, if so? Though again, that could be the scenario where they people they like and who have done them right for years got on and squeezed him. I’m not entirely ruling that possibility out), is nominee only. Which is what he’ll likely be at the Oscars. “Great job, kid, but it’s not your time.” Denzel just got a lifetime achievement from them. Not that it means anything, but he might not even be nominated for Best Actor. And I don’t think they’re in makeup mode and want to give him one for Fences this year. So I doubt he gets it.
I think it’s either Oldman or Day-Lewis, and how do you not take Oldman? Take the favorite and see where they go.
You know he deserves it.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
So this is a meaningless category that will provide one of two moments.
Let’s start by saying — Carell won’t win. Carell was better in The Big Short, and it’s just because they like him. Which is fine. Elgort — wouldn’t that be surprising? But they’re not very surprising here. They vote for the guy most likely to be nominated for the Oscar. And that’s not Elgort.
Now, Hugh is an interesting case. They do like him a lot. He won this for Le Mis a few years ago. But the film… not great. And I think this was more of a “good for you, we like you” nomination more than anything. So let’s call him a distant third choice who could happen, but isn’t very likely to happen.
The answer here is James Franco. He might legitimately be nominated for Best Actor (which is its own barrel of monkeys to deal with). So I’m thinking they go there. They clearly like him, and even if they might not have gotten that performance, I think they’ve savvy enough to know to take him.
Kaluuya is the alternate. I’m not sure how much they give a shit about Get Out, and I don’t know if they care if it wins anything. But if James Franco’s name is not called tonight, I would suspect that it’s because Kaluuya is the choice. Otherwise we’re back to the late 2000s, where they had three years in a row of random winners that didn’t factor into the Oscar race at all, whose films didn’t factor into the race at all. (Colin Farell won for In Bruges, which only managed a Screenplay nomination. Then Downey won for Sherlock Holmes in an essential blank category. And then Paul Giamatti won for Barney’s Version, a movie most people don’t even know exists. Because the other films nominated were Alice in Wonderland, The Tourist, Love & Other Drugs and Casino Jack. You know, those masterpieces. So I think it’s a safe choice taking the big contenders.)
Best Actress – Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Well this will set a tone, won’t it?
Last year, they went wild and gave Isabelle Huppert the win, calling out her nomination before it happened. The only real person that would count for that this year is Michelle Williams, who we can all be pretty certain won’t win.
And while Chastain is someone who could win this, all signs point to no on her too. They are generally pretty good lately at picking who wins. They haven’t missed since 2001, unless you count the year where Kate Winslet won for a different film at the Oscars than she won for everywhere else. Halle Berry’s the last time the Oscar winner lost the Globe.
So chances are, whoever wins this is your favorite for the big one. Well, I guess we could have an alternate in Comedy/Musical, but mostly I’m looking at one scenario that paves a big road foward.
If I’m ranking these — Williams is a fifth and I don’t see that happening. Chastain is fourth. Could happen, maybe she’s even third, but I just don’t see a path there for her winning the Oscar. A nomination isn’t exactly a sure thing (though likely. I’d call her an 80% possibility at this point). I put Meryl third. I don’t think they’re gonna give it to her, and she has three Oscars already. Not to mention seven Globes. She won three for Best Actress in a Drama, two for Comedy-Musical and two for Supporting Actress. All three of her Oscar wins were prefaced by a Globe win. So, it could happen, but do we think she’s got this one this year? I don’t.
To me, the top two choices are Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormand. And Sally Hawkins would be a nice choice, and I think they could go there. Not sure I call her a favorite for Best Actress, and I’m still not sure how all in they’re gonna go on Shape of Water. Which leads me to the natural choice — Frances McDormand.
I think McDormand wins this. And, if she does win this… it’s gonna be pretty easy for her to take this downhill en route to an Oscar win. She gives the kind of performance that could railroad everyone else. Hawkins I don’t think wins everything if she wins this. And the two Comedy-Musical contenders… SAG’s a big hurdle to climb.
So I’m gonna say McDormand wins this, based on absolutely nothing but how I can see things playing out in the future.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Wouldn’t it be nuts if Judi Dench won this? Then we’d have to wonder, even a little bit, if she could win SAG too. (Because remember, she’s nominated for SAG. Not Jessica Chastain. Not Meryl.)
No one really knows what The Leisure Seeker is, unless you’ve been frequenting a lot of indie movies the last month and saw a trailer. It’s not quite a comedy, but Mirren is good, and I like that she’s on here. Not that she has a chance in hell.
Emma Stone won last year, and I get why she’s here, but unless they’re completely wiping their hands of this year, she’s not gonna win.
I’m… I would think Saoirse Ronan is your favorite here, and I’ve been such a huge fan of hers for a decade now (going back to when I said she should have won for Atonement in 2007), so I’d be thrilled to see her win this. But I think they’re gonna give it to Margot Robbie. I think Margot Robbie weirdly has a legitimate chance at Best Actress. Which is insane to think about. But I think she does. Plus, the Globes — she feels like she’s gonna win this.
It’s either gonna be Ronan or Robbie, and I just feel like, knowing the Hollywood Foreign Press, Robbie is the more likely choice.
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Really like this category. No fucking clue what they do.
Can’t see it being Armie Hammer, though it’s possible. Jenkins seems unlikely. He has all the hallmarks of “nominated everywhere, win nowhere.” Plummer is the big statement, and I wanna see if they do it. Dafoe seems like the favorite all around to win the Oscar, but I don’t know if they go there. Just dunno.
Last year, Aaron Taylor-Johnson won and wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar, the first time that happened in 42 years. So it’s all fair game here. Unless they’re going in on the Sam Rockwell train, I guess that could happen. But that doesn’t seem like the choice.
If I’m guessing, I’m taking Plummer. Make things interesting going forward. If I’m picking based on what I want to happen, I’ll take Rockwell. If I’m picking based on your likely Oscar winner based on the current situation, I’ll take Dafoe.
But of all the categories, this is always the wild card for them. So let’s see what they do.
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Holly Hunter stays out of the race. This doesn’t go against her record in the end, come Oscar time.
Mary J. Blige just isn’t happening. Though I’m imagining the shitstorm that causes for people who guess these things, which would be kinda funny. Still don’t see it happening. I’ll just wait and yell loudly if it does.
Hong Chau — man, wouldn’t that be a pull. Doubt it. Gonna stick to no there.
It’s Janney or Metcalf. And I’m taking Metcalf. Let them give it to Janney. Metcalf makes the most sense all around.
But I have no clue. I’m just guessing blindly.
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This category is pretty meaningless. For the Oscars. Not like, in life. Whoever wins here means nothing in terms of who will win elsewhere. Let’s say they go McDonagh. Though they can easily go Gerwig, Sorkin or Guillermo. No fucking clue. But since McDonagh has the nominations elsewhere on their list and is a ‘writer’, let’s say they go him. Again, no clue. Not worth the effort to try to figure it out.
Best Original Score
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Seeing Jonny Greenwood win this would be so fucking cool. But Dunkirk or Shape of Water makes the most sense.
Let’s say Shape of Water, because Desplat did write a beautiful score.
Then again, John Williams is here. I wonder if that matters to them. Doubt it.
Best Original Song
“Remember Me,” from Coco
“Home,” from Ferdinand
“This Is Me,” from The Greatest Showman
“Mighty River,” from Mudbound
“The Star,” from The Star
So, they can give it to either Nick Jonas, Mary J. Blige, the guy who wrote Book of Mormon and the Frozen songs, the guys who wrote La La Land’s songs, or Mariah Carey. This one’s tough.
But only one of these people is nominated for another award. So let’s say Mary J. Blige wins this.
I’m not ruling out Mariah at all. Remember, fucking BURLESQUE won this award. Madonna won this award the year she directed a movie (also curiously beating Mary J. Blige that same year).
The Greatest Showman song should win, but this is starfucker central. If it’s not Mary J. Blige it’s Mariah. I’d be surprised if they voted for any other reason but that.
Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
Go BOSS BABY!
(We all know who’s winning this.)
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Imagine if they gave this to Angelina Jolie. Why do I think they might do that?
It’s probably The Square. Curiously enough, the last time Zvyagintsev and Ostlund faced off, Zvyagintsev won. Leviathan beat Force Majeure. I think Ostlund comes out on top this time. (Unless they really go off the fucking map and go Jolie.) If neither of those two win (those two meaning The Square and Loveless), then this category is irrelevant to the Oscars, since… oh wait, A Fantastic Woman and In the Fade are shortlisted to. So there actually are some possibilities here that could matter.
So there’s really only one way for them to fuck this up, is what I’m really saying. Let’s see if they do it.
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Oh fun. Now the TV nominees. You ever see someone decide stuff by eeny, meeny, miny, moe? That’s more thought than I put into my guesses on these.
You know why? Because I’ve seen almost none of the nominees and couldn’t care less who wins. So let’s pick random winners for completely arbitrary reasons!
Best TV Series – Drama
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
This Is Us
I’m saying The Crown wins. Because people have said they love it. Game of Thrones is always here, This Is Us is the token network nominee that has no chance, Stranger Things probably won last year (don’t care enough to look, don’t even care what won if it didn’t), so let’s say they’re over it. The Handmaid’s Tale makes sense, but I assume that wins an individual award. So its The Crown.
See what I mean by arbitrary?
Best TV Series – Comedy/Musical
Master of None
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Will and Grace
I’m gonna start voting for the black show every year until they take it. Because it’s always here and they never vote for it. Why bother being inclusive if you’re only doing it for the wrong reasons?
Master of None would be such a boring choice for me that I refuse to acknowledge its existence in the category.
Will and Grace — please don’t fucking vote for that, guys.
My original instinct is SMILF, because I’ve never heard of it, and that’s usually what wins here. Something I’ve never heard of. But I’ve been seeing a lot more about that Mrs, Maisel show in the past month. (And by that I mean, I’ve randomly stumbled upon the title like four times despite having no clue what it is or what it’s about.) So that’ll probably win.
Best Miniseries or TV Movie
Big Little Lies
Top of the Lake
Rooting for Fargo, assuming Big Little Lies wins.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Fuck if I know.
Highmore seems very unlikely. Liev has gotta be going on his fourth or fifth nomination in a row without a win. Odenkirk probably would have won by now if they were ever gonna go there, right?
Bateman makes the most sense. I’ll take Sterling K. Brown, because he’s awesome.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
William H. Macy, Shameless
Erick McCormack, Will and Grace
Okay, so I’m rooting for Kevin Bacon, just so whoever announces it has to say the words “I love dick.”
That’s a legitimate reason as anything to vote right?
I’d really like to see Anthony Anderson win, but you know that won’t happen.
Macy wins every year, doesn’t he?
I’m sure it’ll be Aziz, but I’d rather it go anywhere else.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why
Elizabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Moss wins. Foy is alternate. Langford is third choice that won’t actually happen. Balfe has lost like three years in a row now and Gyllenhaal would be such a weak winner in almost everyone’s eyes. I think Foy won last year, and Moss is on the new hit show. Makes sense she’d win.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy/Musical
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Issa Rae, Insecure
Frankie Shaw, SMILF
I remember voting for Issa Rae last year and then she lost. Because… well, let’s not get into why I think that is.
Brie seems like the likely choice. I’d love to see Adlon win, but that’ll never happen. Brosnahan seems like the sneaky contender for the win, even (and maybe even especially) if the show doesn’t win in the main category. Now idea about SMILF, so that also feels like it’ll win because I have no fucking clue about it.
Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies
Jude Law, The Young Pope
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Kyle McLachlen, Twin Peaks: The Return
Geoffrey Rush, Genius
Rush has no chance. De Niro… small chance. But doubt he’s there to accept, or even gives a shit. So, unlikely.
Law should win, and I bet they like him, but I don’t know if they’ll vote for it. McGregor makes a lot of sense, but I don’t know. McLachlen makes sense. He seems like the choice. I can see them loving Twin Peaks.
Rooting for Jude, assuming McLachlen wins.
Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Jessica Biel, The Sinner
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Jessica Lange, Feud
Susan Sarandon, Feud
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies
Kidman, then Lange, then Witherspoon, then Sarandon, then Biel.
It’s gonna be Kidman or Lange.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Alfred Molina, Feud
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
David Thewlis, Fargo
Slater won this, so he’s out. Molina — doubt it, but possible. Harbour would give a hell of a speech, but I don’t know. Thewlis makes the most sense, so I assume they won’t do it. Skarsgard seems like the likely winner, but he also seems like the guy I’d take every year figuring he’s gonna win and then doesn’t.
So fuck it. David Harbour. I can use a good speech.
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies
They love Laura Dern, so she’d make the most sense to me. Dowd — unlikely, but possible. Metz lost last year, so I’m thinking no. Pfeiffer could win because she’s Michelle Pfeiffer. She’d probably be my choice based on nothing.
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So that’s what we got. Show’s in two hours. I’ll be good and drunk by then. So we have that to look forward to.
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