Oscars 2017: DGA Nominations
DGA nominations announced today. Not surprisingly, this will be big in determining who gets nominated for Best Director.
Without further ado, here they are:
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
What does this mean? Well, it means — they really like Lady Bird. Which is thrilling. They didn’t do the stuffy old white guy thing they normally do. You just sort of assumed either Steven Spielberg or Ridley Scott would make it on this by rote. I’m glad they didn’t. I’m also glad people didn’t salivate all over The Post like they were supposed to. Not that I didn’t like it, I just am glad they didn’t choose a boring nominee that didn’t particularly do anything unique or particularly outstanding.
When you look at this — one Mexican, two Brits, two Americans, and the two Americans are a woman and a black man. That’s a big deal.
Very happy they got Gerwig on here, and I’m even happy for Peele.
The big cast off is Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name. (Is he DGA? Could that be why? I haven’t heard that he isn’t.) He and Spielberg were the two extra BFCA nominees on top of the other five. Ridley and Spielberg made the Globes (hence my assuming of the boring white guy scenario, especially given the DGA, by and large). Denis Villeneuve got BAFTA, but without DGA, that seems very unlikely. Paul Thomas Anderson has hit exactly nothing so far.
I think there’s a very strong chance that this is your category. But, the DGA/Oscar comparison is almost automatically 4/5 every single year. 2012, they had that crazy year where only two of them matched up. But outside of that, you have to go back to 2009 to have the DGA hit all five. Before that, 2005, before that 1998. That’s not to say it won’t happen, but what you need to do in a situation like this, especially if you’re like me and you’re trying to guess nominees — you need to look at, should the history hold, who is the person who gets left off and who is the person that gets on instead.
Del Toro, McDonagh and Nolan seem locked. As much as it pains me to say, I’m not 100% sure that Greta Gerwig is locked. Though she seems very safe, considering the love of the film all across the board. But you could say the same for Jordan Peele. If one person is being left off, you need to figure it’s likely to be one of the two of them. But then — which person jumps on? Guadagnino? Spielberg? Spielberg doesn’t make much sense, since The Post is fading as we get closer, and theoretically could walk away with two nominations max — a Picture nomination and either Meryl or an empty Screenplay nomination or Score or something. I don’t really see it making the splash we figured it would around Thanksgiving.
You might have to, as is so often the case, take the DGA nominees and see what else they do. Last year, at least you figured that Garth Davis would get left off the Oscar list after hitting DGA. This year — I don’t know. I’m looking at these five, plus Guadagnino, Spielberg, and I give Paul Thomas Anderson a tiny chance to shock everyone, but past that — basically no one. I think we have our five, and there are only two alternates. Which makes things less complicated, but not necessarily easier.
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BFCA Awards are later tonight. I’ll try to update then, otherwise it’ll be tomorrow morning.