Oscars 2017 Category Breakdown: Best Production Design

Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.

How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.

Today is Best Production Design. AKA Best Sets and Stuff.

Year	Best Production Design Winners	Other Nominees
1927-1928	The Dove & Tempest	Seventh Heaven Sunrise
1928-1929	The Bridge of San Luis Rey	Dynamite Alibi The Awakening The Patriot Sunrise
1929-1930	King of Jazz	Bulldog Drummond The Love Parade Sally The Vagabond King
1930-1931	Cimarron	Just Imagine Morocco Svengali Whoopee!
1931-1932	Transatlantic	À nous la liberté Arrowsmith
1932-1933	Cavalcade	A Farewell to Arms When Ladies Meet
1934	The Merry Widow	The Gay Divorcee The Affairs of Cellini
1935	The Dark Angel	The Lives of a Bengal Lancer Top Hat
1936	Dodsworth	Anthony Adverse The Great Ziegfeld Lloyd’s of London The Magnificent Brute Romeo and Juliet Winterset
1937	Lost Horizon	Conquest A Damsel in Distress Dead End Every Day’s a Holiday The Life of Emile Zola Manhattan Merry-Go-Round The Prisoner of Zenda Souls at Sea Vogues of 1938 Wee Willie Winkie You’re a Sweetheart
1938	The Adventures of Robin Hood	The Adventures of Tom Sawyer Alexander’s Ragtime Band Algiers Carefree The Goldwyn Follies Holiday If I Were King Mad About Music Marie Antoinette Merrily We Live
1939	Gone With the Wind	Beau Geste Captain Fury First Love Love Affair Man of Conquest Mr. Smith Goes to Washington The Private Lives of Elizabeth and Essex The Rains Came Stagecoach The Wizard of Oz Wuthering Heights
1940	Black and White: Pride and Prejudice Color: The Thief of Bagdad	Black and White: Arise, My Love Arizona The Boys from Syracuse Dark Command Foreign Correspondent Lillian Russell My Favorite Wife My Son, My Son Our Town Rebecca The Sea Hawk The Westerner Color: Bitter Sweet Down Argentine Way North West Mounted Police
1941	Black and White: How Green Was My Valley Color: Blossoms in the Dust	Black and White: Citizen Kane The Flame of New Orleans Hold Back the Dawn Ladies in Retirement The Little Foxes Sergeant York Son of Monte Cristo Sundown That Hamilton Woman When Ladies Meet Color: Blood and Sand Louisiana Purchase
1942	Black and White: This Above All Color: My Gal Sal	Black and White: George Washington Slept Here The Magnificent Ambersons The Pride of the Yankes Random Harvest The Shanghai Gesture Silver Queen The Spoilers Take a Letter, Darling The Talk of the Town Color: Arabian Nights Captains of the Clouds Jungle Book Reap the Wild Wind
1943	Black and White: The Song of Bernadette Color: Phantom of the Opera	Black and White: Five Graves to Cairo Fight for Freedom Madame Curie Mission to Moscow The North Star Color: For Whom the Bell Tolls The Gang’s All Here This Is the Army Thousands Cheer
1944	Black and White: Gaslight Color: Wilson	Black and White: Address Unknown The Adventures of Mark Twain Casanova Brown Laura No Time for Love Since You Went Away Step Lively Color: The Climax Cover Girl The Desert Song Kismet Lady in the Dark The Princess and the Pirate
1945	Black and White: Blood on the Sun Color: Frenchman’s Creek	Black and White: Experiment Perilous The Keys of the Kingdom Love Letters The Picture of Dorian Gray Color: Leave Her to Heaven National Velvet San Antonio A Thousand and One Nights
1946	Black and White: Anna and the King of Siam Color: The Yearling	Black and White: Kitty The Razor’s Edge Color: Caesar and Cleopatra Henry V
1947	Black and White: Great Expectations Color: Black Narcissus	Black and White: The Foxes of Harrow Color: Life with Father
1948	Black and White: Hamlet Color: The Red Shoes	Black and White: Johnny Belinda Color: Joan of Arc
1949	Black and White: The Heiress Color: Little Women	Black and White: Come to the Stable Madame Bovary Color: Adventures of Don Juan Sarabond for Dead Lovers
1950	Black and White: Sunset Boulevard Color: Samson and Delilah	Black and White: All About Eve The Red Danube Color: Annie Get Your Gun Destination Moon
1951	Black and White: A Streetcar Named Desire Color: An American in Paris	Black and White: Fourteen Hours House on Telegraph Hill La Ronde Too Young to Kiss Color: David and Bathsheba On the Riviera Quo Vadis The Tales of Hoffmann
1952	Black and White: The Bad and the Beautiful Color: Moulin Rouge	Black and White: Carrie My Cousin Rachel Rashomon Viva Zapata! Color: Hans Christian Andersen The Merry Widow The Quiet Man The Snows of Kilimanjaro
1953	Black and White: Julius Caesar Color: The Robe	Black and White: Martin Luther The President’s Lady Roman Holiday Titanic Color: Knights of the Round Table Lili The Story of Three Loves Young Bess
1954	Black and White: On the Waterfront Color: 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea	Black and White: The Country Girl Executive Suite Le Plaisir Sabrina Color: Brigadoon Désirée Red Garters A Star is Born
1955	Black and White: The Rose Tattoo Color: Picnic	Black and White: Blackboard Jungle I’ll Cry Tomorrow The Man with the Golden Arm Marty Color: Daddy Long Legs Guys and Dolls Love is a Many-Splendored Thing To Catch a Thief
1956	Black and White: Somebody Up There Likes Me Color: The King and I	Black and White: Seven Samurai The Proud and the Profane The Solid Gold Cadillac Teenage Rebel Color: Around the World in 80 Days Giant Lust for Life The Ten Commandments
1957	Sayonara	Funny Face Les Girls Pal Joey Raintree County
1958	Gigi	Auntie Mame Bell, Book and Candle A Certain Smile Vertigo
1959	Black and White: The Diary of Anne Frank Color: Ben-Hur	Black and White: Career The Last Angry Man Some Like It Hot Suddenly, Last Summer Color: The Big Fisherman Journey to the Center of the Earth North by Northwest Pillow Talk
1960	Black and White: The Apartment Color: Spartacus	Black and White: The Facts of Life Psycho Sons and Lovers Visit to a Small Planet Color: Cimarron It Started in Naples Pepe Sunrise at Campobello
1961	Black and White: The Hustler Color: West Side Story	Black and White: The Absent-Minded Professor The Children’s Hour Judgment at Nuremberg La Dolce Vita Color: Breakfast at Tiffany’s El Cid Flower Drum Song Summer and Smoke
1962	Black and White: To Kill a Mockingbird Color: Lawrence of Arabia	Black and White: The Music Man Mutiny on the Bounty That Touch of Mink The Wonderful World of the Brothers Grimm Color: Days of Wine and Roses The Longest Day Period of Adjustment The Pigeon That Took Rome
1963	Black and White: America America Color: Cleopatra	Black and White: 8 ½ Hud Love with the Proper Stranger Twilight of Honor Color: The Cardinal Come Blow Your Horn How the West Was Won Tom Jones
1964	Black and White: Zorba the Greek Color: My Fair Lady	Black and White: The Americanization of Emily Hush… Hush, Sweet Charlotte The Night of the Iguana Seven Days in May Color: Becket Mary Poppins The Unsinkable Molly Brown What a Way to Go!
1965	Black and White: Ship of Fools Color: Doctor Zhivago	Black and White: King Rat A Patch of Blue The Slender Thread The Spy Who Came in from the Cold Color: The Agony and the Ecstasy The Greatest Story Ever Told Inside Daisy Clover The Sound of Music
1966	Black and White: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? Color: Fantastic Voyage	Black and White: The Fortune Cookie The Gospel According to St. Matthew Is Paris Burning? Mister Buddwing Color: Gambit Juliet of the Spirits The Oscar The Sand Pebbles
1967	Camelot	Doctor Dolittle Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner The Taming of the Shrew Thoroughly Modern Millie
1968	Oliver!	The Shoes of the Fisherman Star! 2001: A Space Odyssey War and Peace
1969	Hello, Dolly!	Anne of the Thousand Days Gaily, Gaily Sweet Charity They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?
1970	Patton	Airport The Molly Maguires Scrooge Tora! Tora! Tora!
1971	Nicholas and Alexandra	The Andromeda Strain Bedknobs and Broomsticks Fiddler on the Roof Mary, Queen of Scots
1972	Cabaret	Lady Sings the Blues The Poseidon Adventure Travels with My Aunt Young Winston
1973	The Sting	Brother Sun, Sister Moon The Exorcist Tom Sawyer The Way We Were
1974	The Godfather Part II	Chinatown Earthquake The Island at the Top of the World The Towering Inferno
1975	Barry Lyndon	The Hindenburg The Man Who Would Be King Shampoo The Sunshine Boys
1976	All the President’s Men	The Incredible Sarah The Last Tycoon Logan’s Run The Shootist
1977	Star Wars	Airport ‘77 Close Encounters of the Third Kind The Spy Who Loved Me The Turning Point
1978	Heaven Can Wait	The Brink’s Job California Suite Interiors The Wiz
1979	All That Jazz	Alien Apocalypse Now The China Syndrome Star Trek
1980	Tess	Coal Miner’s Daughter The Elephant Man The Empire Strikes Back Kagemusha
1981	Raiders of the Lost Ark	The French Lieutenant’s Woman Heaven’s Gate Ragtime Reds
1982	Gandhi	Annie Blade Runner La traviata Victor Victoria
1983	Fanny and Alexander	Return of the Jedi The Right Stuff Terms of Endearment Yentl
1984	Amadeus	The Cotton Club The Natural A Passage to India 2010
1985	Out of Africa	Brazil The Color Purple Ran Witness
1986	A Room with a View	Aliens The Color of Money Hannah and Her Sisters The Mission
1987	The Last Emperor	Empire of the Sun Hope and Glory Radio Days The Untouchables
1988	Dangerous Liaisons	Beaches Rain Man Tucker: The Man and His Dream Who Framed Roger Rabbit
1989	Batman	The Abyss The Adventures of Baron Munchausen Driving Miss Daisy Glory
1990	Dick Tracy	Cyrano de Bergerac Dances with Wolves The Godfather Part III Hamlet
1991	Bugsy	Barton Fink The Fisher King Hook The Prince of Tides
1992	Howards End	Bram Stoker’s Dracula Chaplin Toys Unforgiven
1993	Schindler’s List	Addams Family Values The Age of Innocence Orlando The Remains of the Day
1994	The Madness of King George	Bullets Over Broadway Forrest Gump Interview with the Vampire Legends of the Fall
1995	Restoration	Apollo 13 Babe A Little Princess Richard III
1996	The English Patient	The Birdcage Evita Hamlet William Shakespeare’s Romeo + Juliet
1997	Titanic	Titanic Gattaca Kundun L.A. Confidential Men in Black
1998	Shakespeare in Love	Elizabeth Pleasantville Saving Private Ryan What Dreams May Come
1999	Sleepy Hollow	Anna and the King The Cider House Rules The Talented Mr. Ripley Topsy-Turvy
2000	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon	Gladiator How the Grinch Stole Christmas Quills Vatel
2001	Moulin Rouge!	Amélie Gosford Park Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
2002	Chicago	Frida Gangs of New York The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Road to Perdition
2003	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	Girl with a Pearl Earring The Last Samurai Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Seabiscuit
2004	The Aviator	Finding Neverland Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events The Phantom of the Opera A Very Long Engagement
2005	Memoirs of a Geisha	Good Night, and Good Luck. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix King Kong Pride & Prejudice
2006	Pan’s Labyrinth	Dreamgirls The Good Shepherd Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest The Prestige
2007	Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street	American Gangster Atonement The Golden Compass There Will Be Blood
2008	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button	Changeling The Dark Knight The Duchess Revolutionary Road
2009	Avatar	The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus Nine Sherlock Holmes The Young Victoria
2010	Alice in Wonderland	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 Inception The King’s Speech True Grit
2011	Hugo	The Artist Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Midnight in Paris War Horse
2012	Lincoln	Anna Karenina The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Les Misérables Life of Pi
2013	The Great Gatsby	American Hustle Gravity Her 12 Years a Slave
2014	The Grand Budapest Hotel	The Imitation Game Interstellar Into the Woods Mr. Turner
2015	Mad Max: Fury Road	Bridge of Spies The Danish Girl The Martian The Revenant
2016	La La Land	Arrival Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Hail, Caesar Passengers

This is one of those categories that everyone hands out at their shows, so we’ll have a bunch of precursors to use.

The guild is ADG, so we’ll begin with how they do next to the Oscars:

1996 (the first year they gave out awards) — The English Patient matched.
1997 — Titanic matched.
1998 — Shakespeare in Love did not match. (What Dreams May Come won ADG.)
1999 — Sleepy Hollow matched.
2000 — Crouching Tiger did not. (Gladiator won ADG, but that was back when it was a combined Period and Fantasy category.)
2001 — Moulin Rouge matched.
2002 — Chicago did not. (Two Towers won ADG, but that was before they separated the categories).
2003 — Return of the King matched.
2004 — The Aviator did not. (Lemony Snicket won ADG. But again, before they separated the categories.)
2005 — Memoirs of a Geisha matched.

Then they split the categories. And…

2006 — Pan’s Labyrinth matched.
2007 — Sweeney Todd did not. (ADG went There Will Be Blood.)
2008 — Benjamin Button matched.
2009 — Avatar matched.
2010 — Alice in Wonderland did not.
2011 — Hugo matched.
2012 — Lincoln did not. (ADG went Anna Karenina for Period.)
2013 — The Great Gatsby matched.
2014 — The Grand Budapest Hotel matched.
2015 — Mad Max: Fury Road matched.
2016 — La La Land matched.

So, in 21 years when the award was given out, ADG matched up 14 times. Two-thirds isn’t bad. Of the seven that did not match:

1998 — the Best Picture winner won the category.
2000 — the Best Picture winner ended up winning ADG but losing the Oscar.
2002 — the Best Picture winner won the category.
2004 — The Aviator (kind of a Best Picture favorite) won the category.

And since they split the categories, ADG only missed three times. Here they are:

2007 — A Tim Burton film wins.
2010 — A Tim Burton film wins.
2012 — Anna Karenina probably should have won, but they decided to give Lincoln an award. That was one of the surprises of the night that year.

This year, ADG, in their three categories, went to:

Period: The Shape of Water
Fantasy: Blade Runner 2049
Contemporary: Logan

Contemporary obviously doesn’t matter, but the other two are nominated. It should be worth noting that Beauty and the Beast was nominated in the Fantasy category opposite Blade Runner, and Darkest Hour and Dunkirk were both nominated in Period opposite Shape of Water. So your entire category was represented at the guild.

BAFTA and BFCA both, by the way, went to The Shape of Water as well (BAFTA had this exact same category and BFCA had all but Darkest Hour). So right there, you pretty much can parse through this category leading up to Oscar night.

Best Production Design

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Rankings:

5. Darkest Hour — It’s the only film in the category that didn’t hit all the precursors. You can haggle about 4 or 5 all you want, but you know neither should be winning this. This has some nice sets, but it’s rare for a World War II-era movie to win this award. The King’s Speech didn’t even win, and everyone remembered that one set from it. The design of this movie is exquisite, but we’re not talking what’s great, we’re talking what’s gonna win. And this one is fifth choice.

4. Dunkirk — No precursor wins, despite showing up in all the categories. Continuing with what I said up there, if you thought it was hard to win when you were set during World War II, you know how much harder it is to be a war movie? The last war movie to win this category was Patton. So yeah… not likely either wins. This, on paper, is the fourth choice, but when you think about it, it might even be fifth. Because you think, “He just set it on a beach, why would I vote for that?” If you look closer, the production design of this movie is excellent, but that doesn’t help it get votes. So, split them however you want, this and Darkest Hour are the two at the bottom of this category.

3. Beauty and the Beast — Hit every precursor, and it’s entire movie is essentially production design and costumes. Some of the most famous in Disney history. This is automatically in contention until the very end. Though, in terms of Disney live-action remakes, only Alice in Wonderland won this category, and that might be due to Tim Burton more than anything else. Without any wins to this point, I have to consider it a third choice, but it is a third choice that can win. So keep that in mind.

2. Blade Runner 2049 — It won the guild, and was nominated everywhere else. It’s definitely a contender. This and Beauty and the Beast feel like a toss-up next to the ultimate favorite. They could happen, but how can you truly say which will win over the other? So, we’ll save that discussion for now and leave this as second choice owing to its one precursor win.

1. The Shape of Water — Best Picture frontrunner, and it won every single precursor. ADG Period, BAFTA, BFCA. Pretty deadly combination. It’s your favorite, and we’ll wait until Oscar night to see if it can be beat. My guess is, “Yes, but not overly likely.” But either way, until then, this feels like the definite order of each nominees’ likelihood of winning.

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