Oscars 2017 Category Breakdown: Best Editing

Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.

How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.

Today is Best Editing. I hesitated so much on this one because there are three viable choices for what could win (technically four). And I waited to see if anything would sway me before I straight up announced this as a possible 2011 scenario all over again.

This year, more than ever, we might have a category more based on the definition of the term ‘editing’ than how this category usually goes. This category has become a weird Best Picture tie-in category, where the major Best Picture nominees need to be nominated here in order to win. Technically the best picture will have the best editing, because editing is what makes a film… but when you think about the vague notion of what editing really is, I feel like it’s more in like with a lot of this category than in other years.

That said, we must begin by saying that the only Best Picture winners to not be nominated for Best Editing are: It Happened One Night, The Life of Emile Zola, Hamlet, Marty, Tom Jones, A Man for All Seasons, The Godfather Part II, Annie Hall, Ordinary People, and Birdman. So there’s a 90% chance the Best Picture winner will be either The Shape of Water or Three Billboards. And we haven’t even gotten to that category yet. You’re welcome.

Precursor-wise, you look at ACE, the American Cinema Editors, and then a little bit at BAFTA and BFCA, since they also hand out Editing awards. The Eddies (that’s the ACE award) are generally pretty good, though they’ve been somewhat shaky lately. They’re about 70% all time on their awards, but only 60% the past ten years, missing three of the past five. BAFTA, meanwhile, is 8/10 the past ten years, which is pretty solid. And BFCA only started giving out Editing awards in 2009, but has only missed twice since then. Which is solid.

This year, though… precursors are very split. The Eddies went to Dunkirk for Dramatic and I, Tonya for Comedic, BAFTA went to Baby Driver and BFCA was a tie between Dunkirk and Baby Driver.

So, while you’re left with almost no clarity as to what will win this category, you have a solid picture of where each nominee stands. So let’s get into that.

Best Editing

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The tough thing about guessing an Editing category is knowing just how many Best Picture nominees are gonna make it. You had to have guessed Three Billboards and Shape of Water on the fact that they seemed like the favorites going in. Dunkirk was on regardless of its status as a Best Picture nominee. Baby Driver, you felt was a likely contender just because of how much editing is there and how much of the action is also edited to specific songs. But that left that fifth spot, where you really had no idea about. I, Tonya was a solid contender, but you had to figure they’d have at least one more Best Picture contender. Maybe Lady Bird, maybe Get Out. One of those kinds of films felt like it would get on. But, in the end, we got this category, which is solid. All around really good work.

Rankings:

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Just because a Best Picture contender has to be nominated for Editing doesn’t mean it has to win. I can’t see this getting almost any votes in this category, since even the most ardent Three Billboards supporters don’t feel the need to take it in this category. Zero precursor wins, and this isn’t the kind of film that will be tapped as a winner by an Editing win earlier in the night. This isn’t like Crash. It’s an all-around fifth choice.

4. I, Tonya — It has an Eddie win. But that’s like a Globes win for Best Picture – Comedy. Sure, you have it, but there’s that other one that means more there too. Still, a precursor is a precursor, and we know there’s some support out there for it. But you can’t put it over the other three. Makes no sense to do so, so it becomes a default fourth choice. Since while Three Billboards will have more overall support than this, people saw this and people know how good the editing is. So that’ll get it a few votes to make it a fourth choice. No higher, though.

3. The Shape of Water — If any Best Picture contender stands to make a statement by winning this category, this is the one. You cannot count it out. Argo, The Departed, Crash… these movies rode an Editing win to a Best Picture win. Do not make the mistake of counting this out despite a lack of precursors. At worst it’s a third choice. At best it’s a second. Don’t make it the favorite, but keep it in the hunt, especially if you do the scorecard thing like I do. Don’t get caught with your pants down assuming this has no chance. This could easily take this category en route to the big one.

2. Baby Driver — As much as I want to say The Shape of Water is the second choice here even despite the precursors, this movie is all about editing. People saw it and loved it, and it has broad support among those who’ve seen it. It has two big precursors. I’m surprised it won BAFTA outright. Especially over Dunkirk, which is a quintessentially British film. Right now, this and Dunkirk are tied, precursor-wise. Only two small things separate them. They’re 1A and 1B, as far as I can tell.

1. Dunkirk — This is the favorite over Baby Driver for two reasons. First… I trust the guild over BAFTA. BAFTA’s been better the past decade, but I just trust the editors over a voting body at large in this situation. And second — more importantly — it has 8 overall nominations, it’s a war film (a war film won this category last year), and it just feels like the film that’s gonna win this. It’s the big fish in the pond. I’m gonna call the big fish the favorite unless there’s a legitimate reason for me to not do so. And since it’s tied with Baby Driver for precursors, I can break that tie by saying it is the more feted film with 5 more overall nominations and has the guild win. So that’s what I’ve got. This category could go one of three ways (can’t see it going the full 2011), and unless they’re gonna make a Shape of Water statement, I feel like it’s just a toss up between one or the other. It’s not so bad.

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